2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen General Election:

Christie (R): 47%
Corzine (D): 38%

Lonegan (R): 42%
Corzine (D): 41%

Favorable Ratings:

Christie: 51% favorable, 32% unfavorable
Lonegan: 43% favorable, 32% unfavorable
Corzine: 44% favorable, 53% unfavorable

Generally speaking do you prefer a Democrat or a Republican as the governor of New Jersey?

48% Democrat
34% Republican

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 12, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1312

Looking at the polls internals, Christie still isn't known to about half of the NJ electorate, while enjoying more than 2:1 favorable ratings among those with an opinion.

I seriously doubt that you get re-elected with a 36% approval rating, even it's fu**in NJ.

So don't be too surprised if Corzine gets voted down in November.

[Tender Branson]

Strategic Vision:

Christie: 51%
Corzine: 39%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jon Corzine's overall job performance?

Approve 34%
Disapprove 54%

The results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted June 19-21, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_062409.htm

[Tender Branson]

Public Policy Polling:

Christie (R): 51%
Corzine (D): 41%

Christie: 43% favorable, 33% unfavorable
Corzine: 36% favorable, 56% unfavorable

Christie has an unusually lopsided 60-26 lead with independent voters. He’s also benefiting from a remarkable level of party unity- he has a 93-3 advantage with Republicans while Corzine is up only 75-16 among Democrats.

Corzine has solid leads with minority groups in the state, but is hampered by a staggering 60-33 disadvantage among white voters. He actually has a narrow advantage among female voters but trails by 28 with men.

PPP surveyed 1,094 New Jersey voters from June 27th to 29th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_630384.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Farleigh Dickinson will also be releasing a poll tomorrow.

Yepp:

Christie (R) - 45%
Corzine (D) - 39%

How would you rate the job Jon Corzine is doing as governor?

26% Excellent/Good
70% Fair/Poor

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jon Corzine is doing as governor?

36% Approve
49% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 803 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from June 22, 2009, through June 29, 2009, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/30jun/tab.html

Interesting to see this huge split between the 2 forms of approval ...

[Tender Branson]

Why the huge difference between the 2 approval indicators?

Many people probably are unlikely to approve or disapprove and just go with the "so-so-ish" "Fair" ...

Or it's just a dumb poll.

[Tender Branson]

Obama campaigning for Corzine

President Barack Obama is lending some support to embattled Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.), who is facing a tough reelection campaign against Republican Chris Christie this year.

Obama will be appearing alongside Corzine at a Rutgers University rally on July 16, according a statement released by the Corzine camp.

The visit comes at an opportune time for Corzine, whose recent approval ratings have been dismal. The governor is hoping to capitalize on the president’s popularity to rally Democrats and like-minded independents to his side.

In June, Vice President Joe Biden stood alongside Corzine as he accepted the Democratic nomination.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0709/Obama_campaigning_for_Corzine.html

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac to be out with a new NJ poll today ...

[Tender Branson]

Strategic Vision:

Christie (R): 53%
Corzine (D): 38%
Daggett (I): 5%

(official numbers will be released later)

[Tender Branson]

PPP's New Jersey poll today will show that only 64% of Democrats back Corzine.

You know what that means: Something like 54-38 overall ...

[Tender Branson]

I think Christie will win by 57-40 in the end. It will become more evident in the coming months.

But I´ve already said months ago that Corzine is fu**ed.

[Tender Branson]

42% ?

A new high for Corzine ?

Go Jon !

[Tender Branson]

Christie now down to 5 or 6:

2-way race:

Christie: 43%
Corzine: 37%

3-way race:

Christie: 40%
Corzine: 35%
Daggett: 10%

These results are based on a Democracy Corps survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner from August 11-12, 2009 among 620 likely voters in New Jersey. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percent.

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/njsw081309fq1web5.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Sorry, not going to believe Democracy Corps.

Yeah, because Democracy Corps' final 2008 poll of 52-44 for Obama in a 2-way and 51-44 in a 3-way race was sooooo inaccurate it can't be true ...

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor110208fq21.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Christie now down to 5 or 6:

2-way race:

Christie: 43%
Corzine: 37%

3-way race:

Christie: 40%
Corzine: 35%
Daggett: 10%

These results are based on a Democracy Corps survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner from August 11-12, 2009 among 620 likely voters in New Jersey. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percent.

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/njsw081309fq1web5.pdf

Reading the link, I think the two-way numbers are of people who answered "Daggett" in question 14.

It almost looks like it, but their seperate memo says "2-way trial heat" ...

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/nj-gov-poll-memo-081309-final21.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Poll: Christie leads Corzine by three points

By Wally Edge

Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 39%-36% among definite voters, according to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan.  Independent Christopher Daggett is at 6%.

Corzine leads 52%-13%-9% among liberals, and 40%-34%-4% among moderates.  Christie has a 63%-13%-7% lead among conservatives.  Undecided voters "skew heavily to the left," according to the poll analysis.  Among seniors, Corzine leads 46%-32%-4%.

Corzine has an upside-down 23%-46% favorable rating; Christie is also upside-down at 20%-27%. Daggett remains largely unknown, with favorables of 2%-1%.

President Barack Obama has a 47%-28% favorable rating among likely New Jersey voters.  In a generic ballot test for the State Assembly, Republicans lead 40%-35%.

Among likely voters, Corzine leads Christie 37%-35%, with 6% for Daggett.

"If Corzine gets his liberal/urban/Democratic base together he's going to open up a significant lead, forcing Christie to work the right," Shaftan wrote in his analysis.

The poll was conducted between August 12-21 with a sample size of 319 and a margin of error of +/- 5.49%.  The party breakout among respondents was 43% Democrat, 34% Republican, 23% unaffiliated.

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/32543/poll-christie-leads-corzine-three-points

Don't know what to make of this poll, but it looks sh*tty ...

[Tender Branson]

Uber-partisan GQR (aka Democracy Corps) has Christie ahead 43–41, with Daggett getting 7.

http://www.gqrr.com/articles/2383/5448_NJ%20Statewide%20FQ2%20082609.pdf

But their results were not really off in the 2008 election:

President: Obama+7 (Obama won by 7)

Georgia: McCain 48-45 (McCain won by 52-47)

CA-50: The Republican by 44-42-5 (The Republican by 50-45-5)

[Tender Branson]

I'll predict it has Christie +6.

The last poll already had it Christie+6.

I expect something tie-ish (1-2% Christie lead maybe).

[Tender Branson]

Plus: A new FDU poll coming out today will show a 5-point Christie lead.

[Tender Branson]

Plus: A new FDU poll coming out today will show a 5-point Christie lead.

The last FDU poll in very late June had Christie up by 6 - so assuming the leaked numbers are of the same two-way poll they did in late June, the FDU result is largely unchanged (Christie -1).  That pretty much matches the Quinnipiac trend if the leaked Quinnipiac numbers are the two-way poll numbers (Christie +1 from early August).  Quinnipiac hasn't put the poll up on their site yet (nor has FDU).

The Quinnipiac numbers are confirmed by PolitickerNJ and it's the 3-way-number. Christie is up by 4 compared with their previous numbers.

[Tender Branson]

This should calm down a little bit of worrying amongst Republicans who remember all too well what happened in 2002:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What happened in 2002 ?

[Tender Branson]

In English words please, I´m too lazy to look it up.

(I know that the old guy below might be Lautenberg)

[Tender Branson]

New RAS poll out at 5pm.

[Tender Branson]

Now it's the Obama-Corzine ticket:



http://www.trentonian.com/articles/2009/09/23/news/doc4ab99fce515e2610325417.txt

[Tender Branson]

GOP candidate Chris Christie held stock in travel company while investigating group as U.S. Attorney

By Josh Margolin

September 23, 2009, 8:44PM

TRENTON -- Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie acknowledged today he bought and sold stock in a travel and real estate company while it was under investigation by the U.S. Attorney’s Office he led at the time.

Christie purchased shares of Cendant Corp. in 2004 and sold them in 2005, according to financial disclosure reports he filed with the Justice Department. In 2002, his office had renewed an investigation into Cendant, leading to fraud convictions of two of its former top executives in 2005 and 2007.

Asked about the investment during a news conference today, Christie acknowledged seeing it on his disclosure reports but said his financial adviser bought and sold the stocks without his knowledge. He said he did not recall the precise value of the stock, which the forms show in the $1,000 to $15,000 range at both the time of purchase and sale. The discloure forms don’t require exact figures, just ranges.

"The way my investments work, I had no authority to order either the buying or the selling of any particular stock," Christie said. "I was not making the decision to buy or the decision to sell."

Democrats -- who had spent days defending a hedge fund investment by Gov. Jon Corzine -- were quick to accuse Christie of a double standard on financial entanglements.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/09/gop_candidate_chris_christie_h.html