2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

Now that this election is out of the way. It is time to start the campaign for New Jersey Governor. It looks like the top candidates are Governor John Corzine(D) running for re-election and U.S. Attorney Chris Christie being the front-runner for the GOP. With Corzine's unpopularity, I see this as a potential pickup. Thoughts?

[Rowan]

My state sure was a tossup, eh?

My fault was assuming that McCain had some type of ground game, but clearly his was non-existant.

[Rowan]

Actually I think if Codey runs instead of Corzine, Codey wins easily. Heck, even I would vote for him.

[Rowan]

Assemblyman Richard Merkt(R) has already formed an exploratory committee and is running.

[Rowan]

It's a shame that South Jersey is essentially irrelevant in NJ politics. Maybe we should seceed.

[Rowan]

I'll bump this back up, we can put all NJ related stuff in here.

[Rowan]

Steve Forbes endorses Chris Christie.

http://www.christiefornj.com/newsroom/2009/04/08/steve-forbes-endorses-chris-christie-for-governor

[Rowan]

Christie launches first television ad.

http://christiefornj.com/blog/2009/04/09/new-television-ad-leadership/

[Rowan]

RGA gets involved. Launches site www.JerseyPays.com

[Rowan]

Some "entertainer" that I never heard of is launching a write in campaign.

http://www.politickernj.com/max/28995/hurricane-floyd-entertainer-seeks-gubernatorial-campaign-people

Not sure who this would take away votes from. I'm guessing it would take away anti-Corzine votes from Christie.

[Rowan]

Lonegan gets Levine, Brown, and Keller kicked off the ballot. What an asshole.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/court_decision_declines_three.html

[Rowan]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/corzines-net-worth-plummets-may-affect-reelection-2009-04-17.html

[Rowan]

Chris Daggett, former Kean deputy chief of staff, running as an Independent.

http://daggettforgovernor.com/wordpress/about/

I'm kinda worried that all of these independents running are going to take away the Anti-Corzine vote from Christie.

[Rowan]

Another Independent declares.

http://www.politickernj.com/max/29119/wright-formally-gets-governors-race

[Rowan]

Christie has another TV ad up:

http://www.christiefornj.com/newsroom/2009/04/21/television-ad-corruption

[Rowan]

From NRO:

David E. Johnson of the Strategic Vision polling firm tells me he's releasing a poll of the New Jersey's governor's race tomorrow that was conducted over the weekend.  It shows Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 47 percent to 36 percent.  Corzine's job approval is 36 percent with 54 percent disapproval.  Against Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, Corzine leads 44 percent to 39 percent  Lonegan.  Against Brian Levine — who may have to leave the race — it is Corzine 42 percent to Levine's 40 percent.  Against Rick Merkt, Corzine leads 45 percent to 30 percent

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmVmYmIyZjMxNjE2NmNhNzk3MTIyYjExMDgzNTY4ODE=

Yes, I know SV has a house Republican effect, but even taking that into account, it's still a healthy lead for Christie, and the fifth straight poll to show Christie up by at least 9.

[Rowan]

Political Wire says Quinnipiac will be releasing a NJ poll tomorrow.

[Rowan]

Strategic Vision
Christie 47%
Corzine 36%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_042209.htm

[Rowan]

No one mentioned it, but Christie today essentially reached the maximum allowable to fundraise for the June primary.  State election finance law limits primary expenditures at $5 million.

How is that constitutional? The Supreme Court has always struck down campaign spending limits as a violation of the First Amendment.

It's New Jersey. Anything is possible.

[Rowan]

Meh, I think the whole primary/general divide is itself a sketchy way to get around campaign financing laws a lot of the time.  Is Corzine doing that too?

Christie will be spending money for his "primary"... as may Corzine?

As far as I know, Corzine hasn't spent a dime yet. I haven't seen any election filings indicating he has raised any money either.

[Rowan]

Lonegan is nuts. You can be dismissive of him. You're allowed.

[Rowan]

Christie 45%
Corzine 38%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1288

[Rowan]

Christie 45%
Corzine 38%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1288

Christie continues to slip...

Watch as the next poll shows something like Christie - 43%  Corzine - 40%

Continues to slip? It's called statistical noise. The only difference in the internals of the poll is that Corzine went from 69% of Democrats to 72%.

February 4- He's at 44%, Corzine is at 38%
March 12- He's at 46%, Corzine is at 37%
April 22- He's at 45%, Corzine is at 38%

Again, it's all just statistical noise.

[Rowan]

Last I checked, Christie only needs to win the primary by 1 vote. And by beating a hard line conservative in the primary it will bolster his moderate credentials to Independents and soft Dems.

[Rowan]

That's true, unless it drags him to the right and forces him to advertise how conservative he is.

That's the reason Christie is basically trying to pretend Lonegan doesn't even exist. He doesn't even refer to him by name.