Obama Wins NE-02

[TheresNoMoney]

"Barack Obama made history today in Nebraska.

The Democratic presidential candidate claimed an electoral vote in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District — the first time in more than four decades a Democrat won any of Nebraska’s electoral votes.

The Omaha World-Herald is calling the race after Obama won 8,434 out of 15,039 early votes that arrived too late to be included in Tuesday’s results. They were counted today by Douglas County election officials.

Those ballots give Obama a 1,260-vote lead over Republican John McCain in the 2nd District.

It also added one more electoral vote to Obama’s win over McCain in Tuesday’s election. The electoral count now stands: Obama, 364, McCain, 162."

Link

NOTE: His final electoral count actually comes to 365, not 364 like the article suggests.

[Ronnie]

This sucks.

[Hash]

Fun!

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

[Daniel Z]

Wow

[Mr.Phips]

Im surprised he didnt bring Congressional candidate Jim Esch in with him.

[Gustaf]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

[elcorazon]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

lol

[cannonia]

It's kind of cool just to see a state split its votes.

[muon2]

It will be interesting to see if this encourages other states to split their electoral votes like ME and NE. There will be more weight to the argument that it did bring a campaign to a state that otherwise would have been unlikely to see a national candidate.

[Gustaf]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

lol

That's a nice attitude. Do you have any substance to offer? Any disagreement to voice?

[Wiz in Wis]

It will be interesting to see if this encourages other states to split their electoral votes like ME and NE. There will be more weight to the argument that it did bring a campaign to a state that otherwise would have been unlikely to see a national candidate.

Actually, I think the opposite is likely... I'd bet that Nebraska seriously considers going to a winner take all system like the other 48... Sure, Obama won a district and spent some resources there... but he never went there. Imagine if Obama won the race 270-268 and that district was the reason... the Reps in charge of Nebraska would be crucified by the national party.

[Brittain33]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

When he made the move into NE-2, he wasn't heading toward a knife-edge election, and he had local resources that couldn't be profitably used in Iowa.

[Gustaf]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

When he made the move into NE-2, he wasn't heading toward a knife-edge election, and he had local resources that couldn't be profitably used in Iowa.

I don't recall when he made the move, but if I ran for president I don't think I would ever assume that the election was going to be a blow-out for me. Obama's lead was never big enough to stop caring, imo. But, ok, let's assume that the election was already over. I guess it wasn't exactly a mistake then but it's still meaningless. The point is to win a majority of the electoral votes. Getting an extra fun one from Nebraska has no value. If you're 100% certain (and I don't mean 99.99% certain) the pay-off from going there would be 0 (assuming that there is NO way of using the money profitably anywhere else).

[minionofmidas]

It's kind of cool just to see a state split its votes.

My thoughts exactly.

It will be interesting to see if this encourages other states to split their electoral votes like ME and NE. There will be more weight to the argument that it did bring a campaign to a state that otherwise would have been unlikely to see a national candidate.

Actually, I think the opposite is likely... I'd bet that Nebraska seriously considers going to a winner take all system like the other 48... Sure, Obama won a district and spent some resources there... but he never went there. Imagine if Obama won the race 270-268 and that district was the reason... the Reps in charge of Nebraska would be crucified by the national party.

My thoughts, too.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Wow.

[anti_leftist]

It will be interesting to see if this encourages other states to split their electoral votes like ME and NE. There will be more weight to the argument that it did bring a campaign to a state that otherwise would have been unlikely to see a national candidate.

Maybe for solid Blue or Red states it would make sense, since candidates could at least target some districts within the state instead of just ignoring it completely. But for a Battleground state (or with the potential to become one), doing that would be like shooting itself in the foot as it would make only a fraction of its EVs up for grabs and thereby significantly destroy its influence.


Personally, I think it's absolutely insane how some states can use different methods than others in the same election. NE and ME are too small-scale to have much of an impact but if larger states had different methods to allocate EVs, there could be the potential of creating a serious unfair advantage/disadvantage for one party. Plus Republicans would have an incentive to split CA's EVs as would the Democrats for TX and other big states, etc.   The same goes for the Republican primaries (this significantly played to McCain's advantage, as the NE states he won were WTA while most of Romney's and Huckabee's Red states were proportional). If all the states were proportional, Romney at least might've stuck around a lot longer.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

the metropolitan swing in the this election was truly something.  Not just the big cities, but frickin Omaha...

[elcorazon]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

lol

That's a nice attitude. Do you have any substance to offer? Any disagreement to voice?

he WON there in a race he won by about 6 or so % nationally.  Hard to argue that campaigning there was a mistake.  At least  no more of a mistake than campaigning in NC, MO or PA for that matter.

How about all the wasted efforts in NH, NM, NV, etc? 

I don't know if I would have bothered going for 1 EV, but since he won it, they must have known it was competitive.  and they were right.  so, yeah, I disagree with your analysis.

[Gustaf]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

lol

That's a nice attitude. Do you have any substance to offer? Any disagreement to voice?

he WON there in a race he won by about 6 or so % nationally.  Hard to argue that campaigning there was a mistake.  At least  no more of a mistake than campaigning in NC, MO or PA for that matter.

How about all the wasted efforts in NH, NM, NV, etc? 

I don't know if I would have bothered going for 1 EV, but since he won it, they must have known it was competitive.  and they were right.  so, yeah, I disagree with your analysis.

He put a considerable effort into that 1 EV and it got to what, McCain +7? It obviously wasn't going to decide the election. NH, NM and NV were not wasted efforts. All of them were must win states for Obama. Getting into double-digits there pretty much ensured his election. On election night my thinking was that Obama had 291 EVs definitely in the bag. Getting to that kind of situation is the important thing. If some freak thing had occurred in the final days making the race close again or some local event throwing, say, Pennsylvania back to tossup status then the money spent on NE-02 would have been a mistake. If he won comfortably, as he did, then it didn't really matter. But I don't see any scenario that made it a positive factor.

I don't really see the comparison to NC, MO or PA. PA was a must-win. With the other 2 I wouldn't say campaigning was that important in those states either, however: a) they were must-wins for McCain (wouldn't really say that of the 1 EV) and b) McCain campaigned back there. He didn't, as far as I know, in NE-02. That they got to the same margin eventually therefore doesn't really reflect reality. The fact that it turned out the way it did shows to me pretty clearly that there was no way this was going to pay-off in a close election.

I mean, an accurate comparison to this is something like Gore campaigning in Louisiana in 2000 or Bush going for Oregon in 2004. I don't see wasting your resources on places like that as smart, unless the criteria I mentioned are met. Then it's just not stupid.

[lolitsadam]

I live in the suburbs of Omaha.  This is really awesome.

Obamaha is truly real.

[elcorazon]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

lol

That's a nice attitude. Do you have any substance to offer? Any disagreement to voice?

he WON there in a race he won by about 6 or so % nationally.  Hard to argue that campaigning there was a mistake.  At least  no more of a mistake than campaigning in NC, MO or PA for that matter.

How about all the wasted efforts in NH, NM, NV, etc? 

I don't know if I would have bothered going for 1 EV, but since he won it, they must have known it was competitive.  and they were right.  so, yeah, I disagree with your analysis.

He put a considerable effort into that 1 EV and it got to what, McCain +7? It obviously wasn't going to decide the election. NH, NM and NV were not wasted efforts. All of them were must win states for Obama. Getting into double-digits there pretty much ensured his election. On election night my thinking was that Obama had 291 EVs definitely in the bag. Getting to that kind of situation is the important thing. If some freak thing had occurred in the final days making the race close again or some local event throwing, say, Pennsylvania back to tossup status then the money spent on NE-02 would have been a mistake. If he won comfortably, as he did, then it didn't really matter. But I don't see any scenario that made it a positive factor.

I don't really see the comparison to NC, MO or PA. PA was a must-win. With the other 2 I wouldn't say campaigning was that important in those states either, however: a) they were must-wins for McCain (wouldn't really say that of the 1 EV) and b) McCain campaigned back there. He didn't, as far as I know, in NE-02. That they got to the same margin eventually therefore doesn't really reflect reality. The fact that it turned out the way it did shows to me pretty clearly that there was no way this was going to pay-off in a close election.

I mean, an accurate comparison to this is something like Gore campaigning in Louisiana in 2000 or Bush going for Oregon in 2004. I don't see wasting your resources on places like that as smart, unless the criteria I mentioned are met. Then it's just not stupid.

1.  you assume all the states conform to some sort of hierarchy.  which may not be the case.  and if it is, then NC and IN and MO are good comparisons to NE-2.
2.  not sure Obama's efforts would amount to "considerable effort".
3.  Obama had a lot of money, and in many areas had saturated to the point of diminishing returns.
4.  Obama won PA by double digits.  Polls showed that very late in the campaign.  Yet you assume the efforts there were rational, while efforts in Ne-2 were a tactical error, all despite the fact the guy won BOTH. 

I'd say Obama was pretty savvy in his decisions, tactically, and this decision is one of them.

[Person Man]

Maybe Omaha voted for Obama because they share the same vowels. Maybe Omaha should change its name to Oaa.

[Gustaf]

Wow, that's awesome. Remember when Obama was going to lose the election because was spending way too much money and resources in NE-02 and it was Safe Republican anyway and millions of voters would be turned off by his hubris?

When you win by 7% it doesn't really matter that much...had the race been close it would have been a mistake.

lol

That's a nice attitude. Do you have any substance to offer? Any disagreement to voice?

he WON there in a race he won by about 6 or so % nationally.  Hard to argue that campaigning there was a mistake.  At least  no more of a mistake than campaigning in NC, MO or PA for that matter.

How about all the wasted efforts in NH, NM, NV, etc? 

I don't know if I would have bothered going for 1 EV, but since he won it, they must have known it was competitive.  and they were right.  so, yeah, I disagree with your analysis.

He put a considerable effort into that 1 EV and it got to what, McCain +7? It obviously wasn't going to decide the election. NH, NM and NV were not wasted efforts. All of them were must win states for Obama. Getting into double-digits there pretty much ensured his election. On election night my thinking was that Obama had 291 EVs definitely in the bag. Getting to that kind of situation is the important thing. If some freak thing had occurred in the final days making the race close again or some local event throwing, say, Pennsylvania back to tossup status then the money spent on NE-02 would have been a mistake. If he won comfortably, as he did, then it didn't really matter. But I don't see any scenario that made it a positive factor.

I don't really see the comparison to NC, MO or PA. PA was a must-win. With the other 2 I wouldn't say campaigning was that important in those states either, however: a) they were must-wins for McCain (wouldn't really say that of the 1 EV) and b) McCain campaigned back there. He didn't, as far as I know, in NE-02. That they got to the same margin eventually therefore doesn't really reflect reality. The fact that it turned out the way it did shows to me pretty clearly that there was no way this was going to pay-off in a close election.

I mean, an accurate comparison to this is something like Gore campaigning in Louisiana in 2000 or Bush going for Oregon in 2004. I don't see wasting your resources on places like that as smart, unless the criteria I mentioned are met. Then it's just not stupid.

1.  you assume all the states conform to some sort of hierarchy.  which may not be the case.  and if it is, then NC and IN and MO are good comparisons to NE-2.
2.  not sure Obama's efforts would amount to "considerable effort".
3.  Obama had a lot of money, and in many areas had saturated to the point of diminishing returns.
4.  Obama won PA by double digits.  Polls showed that very late in the campaign.  Yet you assume the efforts there were rational, while efforts in Ne-2 were a tactical error, all despite the fact the guy won BOTH. 

I'd say Obama was pretty savvy in his decisions, tactically, and this decision is one of them.

1. Not a completely rigid hierarchy, no, but I don't think any campaign decisions in the world could have made Idaho more Democratic than Massachusetts. I think there is a limit to what campaigning can do.

2. I'm not sure either. Relative to the number of EVs I would think it qualifies though?

3. I realize that, but I do refer to that in my post. You can even save the money under those circumstances.

4. I assume it was rational because he needed to win Pennsylvania.

See, my point is this. In order for the money in NE-02 to be well spent you must imagine a scenario where a) states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Indiana swung back to McCain in the last days while b) NE-02 remained more or less tied and c) where this one single EV actually ended up deciding the election (that is, Obama got 270 or probably 269). I would say the joint probabilities of these events is so close to 0 it can be deemed to be 0. On the other hand, in order for there to be a good idea to spend money in Pennsylvania you only have to imagine a scenario where the nation as a whole swung towards McCain by about 7% or so. The probability of that occurring, in the last days, obviously was pretty small. But it was, imo, a lot larger than the one listed above.

Again, the expected pay-off was basically 0.