2008 National Tie vs. 2004 National Tie - President & House
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Sam Spade
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« on: November 07, 2008, 06:06:15 PM »
« edited: December 21, 2008, 02:58:37 PM by Sam Spade »
Much as my prediction thread much earlier looked at the election, so this thread will also.  This is somewhat of a long-term project and is far from complete as results come in, are finalized, and CD numbers are finalized.  But to me, this is one of the most important analyses of the election...
PRESIDENT - TABLE #1 (ALPHABETICAL)

State200808 Results200404 ResultsSwing
AlabamaR+28.83M60.32, O38.74R+23.16B62.46, K36.84R+5.67
AlaskaR+28.78M59.42, O37.89R+23.09B61.07, K35.52R+5.69
ArizonaR+15.73M53.39, O44.91R+8.01B54.87, K44.40R+7.72
ArkansasR+27.11M58.72, O38.86R+7.50B54.31, K44.55R+19.61
CaliforniaD+16.78M36.92, O60.95D+12.41B44.36, K54.31D+4.37
ColoradoD+1.70M44.71, O53.66R+2.21B51.69, K47.02D+3.91
ConnecticutD+15.12M38.22, O60.59D+12.82B43.95, K54.31D+2.30
DelawareD+17.74M36.95, O61.94D+10.06B45.75, K53.35D+7.68
DCD+78.68M6.53, O92.46D+82.30B9.34, K89.18R+3.62
FloridaR+4.44M48.10, O50.91R+2.55B52.10, K47.09R+1.89
GeorgiaR+12.45M52.10, O46.90R+14.14B57.97, K41.37D+1.69
HawaiiD+38.02M26.58, O71.85D+11.21B45.26, K54.01D+26.81
IdahoR+32.59M61.30, O35.96R+35.66B68.38, K30.26D+3.07
revised to
IllinoisD+18.25M37.00, O61.67D+12.80B44.48, K54.82D+5.45
IndianaR+5.49M48.99, O49.92R+18.22B59.94, K39.26D+12.73
IowaD+2.87M44.67, O53.96D+1.79B49.90, K49.23D+1.08
KansasR+21.81M56.82, O41.43R+22.92B62.00, K36.62D+1.11
KentuckyR+22.78M57.46, O41.10R+17.40B59.55, K39.69R+5.38
LouisianaR+25.14M58.60, O39.88R+12.04B56.72, K42.22R+13.10
MaineD+10.71M40.50, O57.63D+11.45B44.58, K53.57R+0.74
MarylandD+17.72M37.28, O61.42D+15.44B42.93, K55.91D+2.28
MassachusettsD+19.40M36.21, O62.03D+27.62B36.78, K61.94R+8.22
MichiganD+10.07M40.93, O57.42D+5.88B47.81, K51.23D+4.19
MinnesotaD+3.84M43.96, O54.22D+5.94B47.61, K51.09R+2.10
MississippiR+20.12M56.42, O42.72R+17.23B59.44, K39.75R+2.89
MissouriR+6.63M49.46, O49.25R+4.74B53.30, K46.10R+1.89
MontanaR+8.91M49.64, O47.15R+18.05B59.07, K38.56D+9.14
NebraskaR+22.53M57.28, O41.17R+30.76B65.90, K32.68D+8.23
NevadaD+6.01M42.67, O55.10R+0.13B50.47, K47.88D+6.14
New HampshireD+3.14M44.78, O54.34D+3.83B48.87, K50.24R+0.69
New JerseyD+8.29M42.10, O56.81D+9.14B46.24, K52.92R+0.85
New MexicoD+8.33M41.96, O56.71D+3.25B49.84, K49.05D+5.08
New YorkD+19.04M36.68, O62.14D+20.75B40.08, K58.37R+1.71
North CarolinaR+6.10M49.53, O49.85R+9.98B56.02, K43.58D+3.88
North DakotaR+15.10M53.32, O44.64R+24.90B62.86, K35.50D+9.80
OhioR+2.52M47.24, O51.14D+0.36B50.81, K48.71R+2.88
OklahomaR+37.71M65.64, O34.35R+28.68B65.57, K34.43R+9.03
OregonD+9.84M40.81, O57.07D+6.62B47.19, K51.35D+3.22
PennsylvaniaD+3.94M44.28, O54.65D+4.96B48.42, K50.92R+1.02
Rhode IslandD+21.35M35.27, O63.04D+23.21B38.67, K59.42R+1.86
South CarolinaR+15.28M53.81, O44.95R+14.62B57.98, K40.90R+0.66
South DakotaR+14.82M53.14, O44.74R+19.01B59.91, K38.44D+4.19
TennesseeR+21.49M56.89, O41.82R+11.81B56.80, K42.53R+9.68
TexasR+18.20M55.53, O43.75R+20.41B61.09, K38.22D+2.21
UtahR+35.13M62.85, O34.14R+43.08B71.54, K26.00D+7.95
VermontD+28.77M31.57, O66.76D+22.60B38.80, K58.94D+6.17
VirginiaR+0.88M46.78, O52.32R+5.74B53.68, K45.48D+4.86
WashingtonD+10.31M40.72, O57.45D+9.64B45.64, K52.82D+0.67
West VirginiaR+19.54M55.71, O42.59R+10.40B61.09, K38.22R+9.14
WisconsinD+7.48M42.42, O56.32D+2.84B49.32, K49.70D+4.64
WyomingR+38.95M65.20, O32.67R+37.33B68.86, K29.07R+1.62
NATIONALD+7.25M45.62, O52.87R+2.46B50.73, K48.27D+9.71
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2008, 06:07:18 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2008, 02:22:43 PM by John Zogby »
PRESIDENT - TABLE #2 (DEM BIAS VS. GOP BIAS)

State200808 Results200404 ResultsSwing
DCD+79.89M6.54, O92.85D+82.30B9.34, K89.18R+2.49
HawaiiD+38.72M26.64, O71.78D+11.21B45.26, K54.01D+27.51
VermontD+28.77M31.57, O66.76D+22.60B38.80, K58.94D+6.17
Rhode IslandD+21.35M35.27, O63.04D+23.21B38.67, K59.42R+1.86
MassachusettsD+19.40M36.21, O62.03D+27.62B36.78, K61.94R+8.22
New YorkD+19.04M36.68, O62.14D+20.75B40.08, K58.37R+1.71
DelawareD+18.55M36.95, O61.92D+10.06B45.75, K53.35D+8.49
IllinoisD+18.25M37.00, O61.67D+12.80B44.48, K54.82D+5.45
MarylandD+17.72M37.28, O61.42D+15.44B42.93, K55.91D+2.28
CaliforniaD+17.56M37.09, O61.07D+12.41B44.36, K54.31D+5.15
ConnecticutD+15.93M38.25, O60.60D+12.82B43.95, K54.31D+3.11
MaineD+10.71M40.50, O57.63D+11.45B44.58, K53.57R+0.74
WashingtonD+10.31M40.72, O57.45D+9.64B45.64, K52.82D+0.67
MichiganD+10.07M40.93, O57.42D+5.88B47.81, K51.23D+4.19
OregonD+9.84M40.81, O57.07D+6.62B47.19, K51.35D+3.22
New MexicoD+8.33M41.96, O56.71D+3.25B49.84, K49.05D+5.08
New JerseyD+8.29M42.10, O56.81D+9.14B46.24, K52.92R+0.85
WisconsinD+7.48M42.42, O56.32D+2.84B49.32, K49.70D+4.64
NevadaD+6.01M42.67, O55.10R+0.13B50.47, K47.88D+6.14
PennsylvaniaD+3.94M44.28, O54.65D+4.96B48.42, K50.92R+1.02
MinnesotaD+3.84M43.96, O54.22D+5.94B47.61, K51.09R+2.10
New HampshireD+3.14M44.78, O54.34D+3.83B48.87, K50.24R+0.69
IowaD+2.87M44.67, O53.96D+1.79B49.90, K49.23D+1.08
ColoradoD+2.23M44.85, O53.50R+2.21B51.69, K47.02D+4.44
VirginiaR+0.88M46.78, O52.32R+5.74B53.68, K45.48D+4.86
OhioR+2.52M47.24, O51.14D+0.36B50.81, K48.71R+2.88
FloridaR+3.90M48.36, O50.88R+2.55B52.10, K47.09R+1.35
IndianaR+5.49M48.99, O49.92R+18.22B59.94, K39.26D+12.73
North CarolinaR+6.10M49.53, O49.85R+9.98B56.02, K43.58D+3.88
MissouriR+6.63M49.46, O49.25R+4.74B53.30, K46.10R+1.89
MontanaR+8.91M49.64, O47.15R+18.05B59.07, K38.56D+9.14
GeorgiaR+11.70M52.27, O46.99R+14.14B57.97, K41.37D+2.44
ArizonaR+14.81M53.60, O45.21R+8.01B54.87, K44.40R+6.80
South DakotaR+14.82M53.14, O44.74R+19.01B59.91, K38.44D+4.19
North DakotaR+15.10M53.32, O44.64R+24.90B62.86, K35.50D+9.80
South CarolinaR+15.28M53.81, O44.95R+14.62B57.98, K40.90R+0.66
TexasR+18.20M55.53, O43.75R+20.41B61.09, K38.22D+2.21
West VirginiaR+19.54M55.71, O42.59R+10.40B61.09, K38.22R+9.14
MississippiR+20.12M56.42, O42.72R+17.23B59.44, K39.75R+2.89
TennesseeR+21.49M56.89, O41.82R+11.81B56.80, K42.53R+9.68
KansasR+21.81M56.82, O41.43R+22.92B62.00, K36.62D+1.11
NebraskaR+22.53M57.28, O41.17R+30.76B65.90, K32.68D+8.23
KentuckyR+22.78M57.46, O41.10R+17.40B59.55, K39.69R+5.38
LouisianaR+25.14M58.60, O39.88R+12.04B56.72, K42.22R+13.10
ArkansasR+26.35M58.75, O38.82R+7.50B54.31, K44.55R+18.85
AlabamaR+28.06M60.42, O38.79R+23.16B62.46, K36.84R+4.89
AlaskaR+31.68M61.50, O36.24R+23.09B61.07, K35.52R+8.59
IdahoR+31.86M61.53, O36.09R+35.66B68.38, K30.26D+3.80
UtahR+35.13M62.85, O34.14R+43.08B71.54, K26.00D+7.95
OklahomaR+37.71M65.64, O34.35R+28.68B65.57, K34.43R+9.03
WyomingR+38.95M65.20, O32.67R+37.33B68.86, K29.07R+1.62
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2008, 06:07:40 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2008, 01:44:32 PM by John Zogby »
PRESIDENT - TABLE #3 (DEM SWING vs. GOP SWING)

State200808 Results200404 ResultsSwing
HawaiiD+38.72M26.64, O71.78D+11.21B45.26, K54.01D+27.51
IndianaR+5.49M48.99, O49.92R+18.22B59.94, K39.26D+12.73
North DakotaR+15.10M53.32, O44.64R+24.90B62.86, K35.50D+9.80
MontanaR+8.91M49.64, O47.15R+18.05B59.07, K38.56D+9.14
DelawareD+18.55M36.95, O61.92D+10.06B45.75, K53.35D+8.49
NebraskaR+22.53M57.28, O41.17R+30.76B65.90, K32.68D+8.23
UtahR+35.13M62.85, O34.14R+43.08B71.54, K26.00D+7.95
VermontD+28.77M31.57, O66.76D+22.60B38.80, K58.94D+6.17
NevadaD+6.01M42.67, O55.10R+0.13B50.47, K47.88D+6.14
IllinoisD+18.25M37.00, O61.67D+12.80B44.48, K54.82D+5.45
CaliforniaD+17.56M37.09, O61.07D+12.41B44.36, K54.31D+5.15
New MexicoD+8.33M41.96, O56.71D+3.25B49.84, K49.05D+5.08
VirginiaR+0.88M46.78, O52.32R+5.74B53.68, K45.48D+4.86
WisconsinD+7.48M42.42, O56.32D+2.84B49.32, K49.70D+4.64
ColoradoD+2.23M44.85, O53.50R+2.21B51.69, K47.02D+4.44
MichiganD+10.07M40.93, O57.42D+5.88B47.81, K51.23D+4.19
South DakotaR+14.82M53.14, O44.74R+19.01B59.91, K38.44D+4.19
North CarolinaR+6.10M49.53, O49.85R+9.98B56.02, K43.58D+3.88
IdahoR+31.86M61.53, O36.09R+35.66B68.38, K30.26D+3.80
OregonD+9.84M40.81, O57.07D+6.62B47.19, K51.35D+3.22
ConnecticutD+15.93M38.25, O60.60D+12.82B43.95, K54.31D+3.11
GeorgiaR+11.70M52.27, O46.99R+14.14B57.97, K41.37D+2.44
MarylandD+17.72M37.28, O61.42D+15.44B42.93, K55.91D+2.28
TexasR+18.20M55.53, O43.75R+20.41B61.09, K38.22D+2.21
KansasR+21.81M56.82, O41.43R+22.92B62.00, K36.62D+1.11
IowaD+2.87M44.67, O53.96D+1.79B49.90, K49.23D+1.08
WashingtonD+10.31M40.72, O57.45D+9.64B45.64, K52.82D+0.67
South CarolinaR+15.28M53.81, O44.95R+14.62B57.98, K40.90R+0.66
New HampshireD+3.14M44.78, O54.34D+3.83B48.87, K50.24R+0.69
MaineD+10.71M40.50, O57.63D+11.45B44.58, K53.57R+0.74
New JerseyD+8.29M42.10, O56.81D+9.14B46.24, K52.92R+0.85
PennsylvaniaD+3.94M44.28, O54.65D+4.96B48.42, K50.92R+1.02
FloridaR+3.90M48.36, O50.88R+2.55B52.10, K47.09R+1.35
WyomingR+38.95M65.20, O32.67R+37.33B68.86, K29.07R+1.62
New YorkD+19.04M36.68, O62.14D+20.75B40.08, K58.37R+1.71
Rhode IslandD+21.35M35.27, O63.04D+23.21B38.67, K59.42R+1.86
MissouriR+6.63M49.46, O49.25R+4.74B53.30, K46.10R+1.89
MinnesotaD+3.84M43.96, O54.22D+5.94B47.61, K51.09R+2.10
DCD+79.89M6.54, O92.85D+82.30B9.34, K89.18R+2.49
OhioR+2.52M47.24, O51.14D+0.36B50.81, K48.71R+2.88
MississippiR+20.12M56.42, O42.72R+17.23B59.44, K39.75R+2.89
AlabamaR+28.06M60.42, O38.79R+23.16B62.46, K36.84R+4.89
KentuckyR+22.78M57.46, O41.10R+17.40B59.55, K39.69R+5.38
ArizonaR+14.81M53.60, O45.21R+8.01B54.87, K44.40R+6.80
MassachusettsD+19.40M36.21, O62.03D+27.62B36.78, K61.94R+8.22
AlaskaR+31.68M61.50, O36.24R+23.09B61.07, K35.52R+8.59
OklahomaR+37.71M65.64, O34.35R+28.68B65.57, K34.43R+9.03
West VirginiaR+19.54M55.71, O42.59R+10.40B61.09, K38.22R+9.14
TennesseeR+21.49M56.89, O41.82R+11.81B56.80, K42.53R+9.68
LouisianaR+25.14M58.60, O39.88R+12.04B56.72, K42.22R+13.10
ArkansasR+26.35M58.75, O38.82R+7.50B54.31, K44.55R+18.85
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2008, 06:08:28 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2008, 05:10:56 PM by John Zogby »
HOUSE

Cong. Dist.200808 Results200404 ResultsSwing
CT-01D+27.00M32.72, O65.96blankB, Kblank
CT-02D+13.23M39.46, O59.11blankB, Kblank
CT-03D+19.77M36.30, O62.49blankB, Kblank
CT-04D+13.49M39.71, O59.62blankB, Kblank
CT-05D+7.52M42.40, O56.34blankB, Kblank
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2008, 06:33:24 PM »
When you say swing, you mean trend, right?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2008, 06:38:00 PM »

Yes.  I tend think of trends (god how I hate that word) as being over multiple elections, whereas swing is over one election.  This is an analysis of the swings of the states and CDs from 2004 to 2008 in the electoral tie model.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2008, 03:23:34 PM »
Presidential results are finalized for now.  They will assuredly change in the future, but I doubt that much.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2008, 06:13:24 PM »
As we Brits came up with the term, let a Brit put the record straight:

Swing: Change in support between the most recent election and the current election
Trend: Change over a series of elections
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2008, 06:48:02 AM »


Map based on Sam's swings.

30%=swing<2.5%
40%=swing<5%
50%=swing<7.5%
60%=swing<10%
70%=swing<15%
80%=swing<20%
90%=swing>20%

I'm not writing out the lower bounds. Figure them out. Tongue
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2008, 02:23:19 PM »
Added another informative table - the DEM bias vs. GOP bias measure...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2008, 12:44:19 AM »
Bumping this up, as it will be updated.  A certain amount will change, as the final national total was 7.21%, it looks like...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2008, 03:35:25 PM »
7.25, apparently. I think figures are final now, correct me if I'm wrong...

Btw, thought of doing a national normalized county map (ie, D counties for 2008 are ones where Obama won by at least 7.25 and D counties for 2004 are ones where Kerry won or lost by less than 2.46)?

In that, Republicans gained 3 counties in Maine (Washington, Penobscot, Somerset) to have 4 now,
held their same 4 counties in New Hampshire,
lost their last county in Vermont just as in the normal map,
Dems hold all counties in MA and RI just as in the normal map,
Reps held Litchfield Co CT. (more to follow I suppose)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2008, 04:01:12 PM »
New York:
flip to d: Dutchess, Sullivan, Essex (obviously all counties flipped to d in this also flipped irm).
flip to r: Suffolk, Rockland, Otsego, Niagara (Suffolk and Niagara stayed Dem irm, other two flipped to D).
other counties D irm, R in normalized map: Orange, Washington, Saratoga, Warren, Madison, Oswego, Seneca, Chautauqua

New Jersey: Normalized 2004, Normalized 2008, and Real 2004 maps identical.

Pennsylvania:
flip to d: Chester, Berks, Dauphin, Centre
flip to r: Carbon, Cambria, Fayette, Washington, Beaver, Lawrence.
Normalized D map is Obama map minus Carbon, Cambria and Elk. Normalized 2004 D map was Kerry map plus Carbon, Monroe, Cambria and Lawrence.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2008, 06:12:34 AM »
Ohio: 2004 normalized D is actual D plus Clark. 2008 normalized has Stark, Jefferson, Belmont, Clark and Montgomery flipping to R.

Indiana: 2004 normalized D is Lake, LaPorte, St Joseph, Marion, Monroe, Vermillion, Perry.
2008 has three counties flipping to D: Delaware, Tippecanoe, Vigo

Illinois: 2004 normalized D is Kerry plus Lake, Winnebago, Macoupin and Gallatin.
2008 has 8 counties flipping to D: Jo Daviess, Henry, Warren, LaSalle, DeKalb, Kane, DuPage, Will

Michigan is complex: 2004 normalized D is Kerry plus Iron, Delta, Alpena, Ogemaw, Clare, Manistee, Macomb and Monroe - Kerry won only 15 counties in Michigan but lost another 8 by margins lower than the national margin. Although all 8 flipped voted for Obama in 2008, only Manistee and Macomb topped Obama's national margin, so the other 6 flip to R in our normalized map, as do Alger and Arenac.
On the other hand, there are also six counties flipping to D in the normalized map: Menominee, Benzie, Shiawassee, Eaton, Calhoun, Van Buren.

Wisconsin: 2004 normalized D is Kerry plus Columbia, Chippewa, Rusk, Barron, Washburn and Forrest.
2008 normalized D is almost as impressive as Obama's map as Racine, Richland, Monroe, Juneau, Wood, Clark, Marathon, Lincoln, Oneida, Winnebago, Manitowoc, Kewaunee, Door, Brown and Outagamie all flip - but Barron and Washburn buck the state's trend and go more Republican than the national average (despite voting for Obama).

Minnesota: 2004 normalized D is Kerry plus Houston, Dakota, Yellow Medicine, Pope, Grant and Aitkin.
Although all voted Obama in 2008, only Houston did by more than the national margin, and so the remaining five all flip R in normalized, as do Chippewa, Lac qui Parle, Big Stone and Pine.
Clay is the only county to flip D.

Iowa: 2004 normalized D is Kerry plus Allamakee, Cedar, Marshall and Woodbury.
2008 normalized is almost the same with 3 counties flipping to R: Benton, Clarke and Woodbury (which Obama didn't even win).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2008, 07:09:45 AM »
« Edited: December 20, 2008, 07:27:20 AM by this space for sale »
Missouri: 2004 normalized D is 2008 actual minus Buchanan and Iron, plus Penobscot.
2008 normalized D is 2004 actual plus Boone.

North Dakota: 2004 normalized D is 2004 actual Kerry (Steele, Rolette, Benson, Sioux) plus Mountrail.
2008 norm has Ransom and Sargent flipping D and Mountrail (despite voting for Obama) flipping R.

South Dakota 2004 normalized D is 2004 actual Kerry. Only change in 2008 is Marshall going D.

Nebraska 2004 normalized D is 2004 actual Kerry, ie Thurston only. And despite the above-average swing in the state, even that one narrowly gets lost in 2008 - every single county in Nebraska is more Republican than the nation.

Kansas normalized for either 2004 or 2008 equals Kerry, ie Wyandotte and Douglas Counties.

Kent County, Delaware, flips in the normalized as well as in the actual map.

Maryland normalized for either 2004 or 2008 equals Kerry.

Virginia normalized for 2004 is Kerry plus Westmoreland and Caroline counties.
Normalized 2008 is almost as impressive as the real map - the only Obama gains that don't count are King and Queen, Buckingham and Montgomery counties and Chesapeake, Staunton and Winchester cities (and Westmoreland and Caroline for the opposite reason).
Buchanan and Dickenson which flipped R even on actual figures are the only normalized R flippers.

WV normalized for 2004 is Kerry plus Lincoln and Kanawha. The only normalized 2008 Dem counties left in the state are Boone and McDowell.

NC normalized for 2004 is Kerry plus Martin, Bladen, Columbus, Wake, Granville and Buncombe. Although Obama won all these except Columbus (which McCain won by more than Bush did) he topped the national margin only in the big prices of Wake and Buncombe. Gates and Richmond also flip to R in the normalized map, but Pitt, Cumberland and Forsyth flip to D.

SC normalized for 2004 is Kerry plus Calhoun and Chester. In normalized 2008 Calhoun (despite voting for Obama) and McCormick flip to R and Charleston flips to D.

Georgia 2004 normalized is Kerry plus Burke, Wilkinson and Sumter.
2008, Twiggs, Wilkinson, Dooly, Sumter, Webster and Baker go normalized R and Rockdale goes normalized D.

Florida 2004 normalized is Kerry plus Madison and Pinellas.
2008, Jefferson, Madison, Volusia and Monroe go norm R and Osceola goes norm D.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2008, 03:43:28 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2008, 03:59:59 PM by this space for sale »
KY normalized 2004 is Kerry plus Muhlenberg.
normalized 2008 is just Elliott and Jefferson Counties.

TN normalized 2004 is Kerry plus Hickman.
normalized 2008 is just Davidson, Haywood and Shelby.

AL normalized 2004 is Kerry plus Marengo.
normalized 2008 is exactly Kerry's map.

MS normalized 2004 is Kerry plus Panola and Chickasaw.
normalized 2008 is Kerry minus Benton (which did in fact vote for McCain - Obama won 6 Bush 2000 counties including Panola and Chickasaw, but his margins in all 6 were below 7.25. While D margins in all Kerry/Obama counties were over 7.25.)

AR normalized 2004 is Kerry plus Conway, Hot Spring, Lafayette, Ouachita and Dallas.
normalized 2008 is exactly the same as Obama's map, meaning that 17 counties flipped between 2004 and 2008.

LA normalized 2004 is Kerry plus Saint Landry and Caddo
normalized 2008 has these two, Assumption and Pointe Coupee flipping to r. Which makes it the same as the list of those parishes to vote for both Kerry and Obama.

OK normalized map for either year is all Republican.

TX normalized map for 2004 is Kerry plus Dallas, Cameron and Frio.
2008 has Kleberg (by the tiniest of whispers. National margin 7.248, county margin 7.250), Val Verde and Culberson flipping to D and Jefferson and, oddly, Kenedy flipping to R (despite both voting for Obama).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2008, 04:28:54 PM »
MT 2004 normalized equals actual Bush-Kerry map. 2008 has Blaine and Hill flipping to D.

ID 2004 normalized has Blaine and Latah as Democratic. 2008 has only Blaine.

WY normalized for either year has only Teton as Democratic.

CO normalized for 2004 is Kerry plus Huerfano, while normalized for 2008 is Obama minus Las Animas, which means that Larimer, Broomfield, Jefferson, Arapahoe, Ouray and Alamosa all went D while Las Animas went the other way.

NM normalized for 2004 equals Kerry. For 2008, Colfax, Sandoval and Valencia flip to D.

AZ normalized for 2004 equals Kerry equals Obama. For 2008, Pima flips to R.

UT normalized for 2004 is all Republican. Summit flips for 2008.

NV normalized for 2004 equals Kerry (ie Clark only). Washoe flips for 2008.

WA normalized for either year equals Kerry plus Skagit County.

OR normalized for either year equals Kerry plus Clackamas and Tillamook.

CA normalized for 2004 equals actual Kerry map. Flip San Joaquin, Merced, Ventura and San Diego to D for 2008.

HI normalized is entirely Democratic.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2008, 09:28:08 AM »
In total, the number of county equivalents voting more Democratic than the national average declined from 671 to 621, proof of the continuing urbanization of the Democratic vote.
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