Virginia 2009 Megathread

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I still think Deeds will pull things to the end

[minionofmidas]

I like Deeds' local favorite son vote in those two northern appalachian counties. (I've only looked at the map Sam posted over in the other thread.)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also, I predicted the right margin, but for the wrong race. I said 56.5 - 43.5 or thereabouts for Governor... It is, in fact, the margin for Lt. Governor, though.

I had a very similar prediction for Governor.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Deeds only won his Senate district by 3 points, based on my calculations:

Albemarle    - 13768 McDonnell / 13568 Deeds
Allegheny - 3188 Deeds / 2017 McDonnell
Bath   - 1159 Deeds / 666 McDonnell
Buckingham - 177 McDonnell / 154 Deeds
Nelson - 2679 McDonnell / 2310 Deeds
Rockbridge - 5991 McDonnell / 1704 Deeds
Buena Vista - 824 McDonnell / 528 Deeds
Charlottesville - 7422 Deeds / 2639 McDonnell
Covington - 979 Deeds / 506 McDonnell

Total - 31012 Deeds / 29267 McDonnell

51.4 - 48.6.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Localities won by Deeds, by general category:

State Senate district: Home field advantage:

Allegheny County - 61.2%
Bath County - 63.5%
Covington - 65.8%

Liberal NoVa:

Arlington County - 65.4%
Alexandria - 62.8%
Falls Church - 64.8%

College towns:

Charlottesville - 73.7%
Fredericksburg - 50.8%
Lexington - 60.5%
Williamsburg - 54.6%

Large African-American presence:

Charles City County - 58.5%
Greensville County - 52.6%
Surry County - 53.6%
Franklin - 51.8%
Hampton - 57.9%
Martinsville - 51.7%
Newport News - 50.3%
Norfolk - 60.0%
Petersburg - 81.0%
Portsmouth - 59.8%
Richmond - 69.1%
Roanoke - 51.9%

[minionofmidas]

State Senate district:

As that is much larger, I would rather call this category "Home Sweet Home" or some equivalent term.

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Not really that large a one. Half of Deeds' votes would have come from Whites.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I know, Roanoke is more complicated than that, but I'm not sure how else to categorize it. It's also somewhat more liberal than the average small city in otherwise-rural Virginia because of upper-class conservative voters who have moved to the county or to neighboring Salem.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think it's time to thank JohnnyLongtorso.
He was perhaps our most valuable source of local information in all things Virginia.

[Umengus]

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.

[Sam Spade]

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.

The Rasmussen tracker is not the poll you want to use.  Rather, it's SUSA which nailed this race to a tee.

That being said, as I noted above, I see probably a couple of points swing to Republicans in Virginia against the national mean.

[You kip if you want to...]

Mapity-map

[Filuwaúrdjan]

pwned

[Sam Spade]

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.

The Rasmussen tracker is not the poll you want to use.  Rather, it's SUSA which nailed this race to a tee.

That being said, as I noted above, I see probably a couple of points swing to Republicans in Virginia against the national mean.

Another point - PPP would have gotten the same result as SUSA, but their weighting was too Democratic.  Understandable.

[Umengus]

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.

The Rasmussen tracker is not the poll you want to use.  Rather, it's SUSA which nailed this race to a tee.

That being said, as I noted above, I see probably a couple of points swing to Republicans in Virginia against the national mean.

I just wanted to say that the job approval in Virginia matches with the rasmussen tracking poll. (48 % at national  level, 48 % in VA). And so the ras tracking poll is very accurate.

But indeed, survey USA did a very good job. I'm more nuanced with PPP, considering the great variation of the party id of their samples during the campaign. 

[Badger]

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.

Also worth noting that the reported presidential vote of VA voters yesterday according to that same exit poll was 51-43 McCain. Obviously a lot of Obama voters were not inspired enough by Deeds (imagine that) to come out and vote this year. Anyone assumes those same voters will stay home when Obama is back on the ballot in 2012 does so at their own peril.

Also HIGHLY worth noting is that 1 in 5 McDonnell voters approve of the job Obama is doing, compared to only 1 in 20 Deeds voters who disapprove of the President's job. (The numbers for NJ, FWIW, indicate over 1 in 4 voters who approve of Obama's job performance didn't vote for Corzine.)

One of the most insightful comments I've read on the forum is Spade's note that all 50 governors offices can be considered "open seats" in terms of party competitiveness. Federal races obviously are much, MUCH different in that regard. At the risk of over-extrapolating too much in the other direction of the MSM's common wisdom this morning, I see Owens's upset win in NY-23 as far more indicative of 2010 midterms than 2 governors races (but still admittedly only a tiny glimpse).

[bgwah]

Mapity-map

It's times like this I wish we had a laughing smiley. I guess this will have to do... Hahahahahaha!

[Lunar]

DEEDS WON IN BATH COUNTY

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Mapity-map

Absolutely pathetic.  He lost Fairfax, and only managed 38% in Loudon.  Really, really pathetic.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Mapity-map

Absolutely pathetic.  He lost Fairfax, and only managed 38% in Loudon.  Really, really pathetic.

Bad candidate perhaps?

[Sam Spade]

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.

Also worth noting that the reported presidential vote of VA voters yesterday according to that same exit poll was 51-43 McCain. Obviously a lot of Obama voters were not inspired enough by Deeds (imagine that) to come out and vote this year. Anyone assumes those same voters will stay home when Obama is back on the ballot in 2012 does so at their own peril.

Also HIGHLY worth noting is that 1 in 5 McDonnell voters approve of the job Obama is doing, compared to only 1 in 20 Deeds voters who disapprove of the President's job. (The numbers for NJ, FWIW, indicate over 1 in 4 voters who approve of Obama's job performance didn't vote for Corzine.)

One of the most insightful comments I've read on the forum is Spade's note that all 50 governors offices can be considered "open seats" in terms of party competitiveness. Federal races obviously are much, MUCH different in that regard. At the risk of over-extrapolating too much in the other direction of the MSM's common wisdom this morning, I see Owens's upset win in NY-23 as far more indicative of 2010 midterms than 2 governors races (but still admittedly only a tiny glimpse).

Be careful in reading too much into who people "say" they voted for.  If they're unhappy (or embarassed), they often lie, especially to exit pollsters (and most pollsters in general).

FWIW, you've stated my point accurately, but let me caution that I do think governor's races are indicative of something when there are serious downballot effects like we saw in VA.  For example, Republicans, according to my maths, destroyed 6 years of gains in one evening in the House of Delegates.

That does say something to me about what may happen in 2010.  But one of the reasons why I said that I didn't see why Republicans were gleeful is because a swing back to 2002/2004-type numbers (or perhaps worse in Appalachia) in the South and Appalachia is simply not enough to take back the House. 

Now, if these swings started showing up in other suburbs outside this area, there might be something. 

[Meeker]

Mapity-map

Absolutely pathetic.  He lost Fairfax, and only managed 38% in Loudon.  Really, really pathetic.

Bad candidate perhaps?

Uh, no shit Sherlock.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've been figuring out the Deeds/McDonnell numbers for the competitive House districts. The 3rd district went from 53-47 Deeds in 2005 to 68-32 McDonnell this year. No wonder the Democrats didn't try to salvage Bowling's campaign.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Mapity-map

It's times like this I wish we had a laughing smiley. I guess this will have to do... Hahahahahaha!

Agreed.

By the way, this is the worst result for the Democrats since 1993.

[Umengus]

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.

Also worth noting that the reported presidential vote of VA voters yesterday according to that same exit poll was 51-43 McCain. Obviously a lot of Obama voters were not inspired enough by Deeds (imagine that) to come out and vote this year. Anyone assumes those same voters will stay home when Obama is back on the ballot in 2012 does so at their own peril.

Also HIGHLY worth noting is that 1 in 5 McDonnell voters approve of the job Obama is doing, compared to only 1 in 20 Deeds voters who disapprove of the President's job. (The numbers for NJ, FWIW, indicate over 1 in 4 voters who approve of Obama's job performance didn't vote for Corzine.)

One of the most insightful comments I've read on the forum is Spade's note that all 50 governors offices can be considered "open seats" in terms of party competitiveness. Federal races obviously are much, MUCH different in that regard. At the risk of over-extrapolating too much in the other direction of the MSM's common wisdom this morning, I see Owens's upset win in NY-23 as far more indicative of 2010 midterms than 2 governors races (but still admittedly only a tiny glimpse).

vote in 2008 is not a good indicator in my opinion. I prefer largely party id. It's clear for me that the party id in 2010 (2012 is different) will be +- similar to the party id in 2009 and hence, gop will win big in VA..

[Umengus]

Concerning NY 23, Hoffman with the "R" next to his name would have win without problem. And Owens, a blue dog democrat, has won without to get 50 % + (in 2008, Obama won with 52 %.

In ca-10, the win of the dem is so weak compared to 2008 et 2006.