Virginia 2009 Megathread
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Lunar
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« Reply #1225 on: November 05, 2009, 04:28:34 AM »


bad campaign more than bad candidate IMO.  Deeds of course deserves a large slice of the shame as he totally ceded way too much of his campaign to credentialed yet stupid strategists.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1226 on: November 05, 2009, 08:06:23 AM »

FWIW, you've stated my point accurately, but let me caution that I do think governor's races are indicative of something when there are serious downballot effects like we saw in VA.  For example, Republicans, according to my maths, destroyed 6 years of gains in one evening in the House of Delegates.

Four years -- all of the defeated Democrats were elected between 2005 and 2007.
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Badger
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« Reply #1227 on: November 05, 2009, 01:53:59 PM »

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.




Also worth noting that the reported presidential vote of VA voters yesterday according to that same exit poll was 51-43 McCain. Obviously a lot of Obama voters were not inspired enough by Deeds (imagine that) to come out and vote this year. Anyone assumes those same voters will stay home when Obama is back on the ballot in 2012 does so at their own peril.

Also HIGHLY worth noting is that 1 in 5 McDonnell voters approve of the job Obama is doing, compared to only 1 in 20 Deeds voters who disapprove of the President's job. (The numbers for NJ, FWIW, indicate over 1 in 4 voters who approve of Obama's job performance didn't vote for Corzine.)

One of the most insightful comments I've read on the forum is Spade's note that all 50 governors offices can be considered "open seats" in terms of party competitiveness. Federal races obviously are much, MUCH different in that regard. At the risk of over-extrapolating too much in the other direction of the MSM's conventional wisdom this morning, I see Owens's upset win in NY-23 as far more indicative of 2010 midterms than 2 governors races (but still admittedly only a tiny glimpse).

Be careful in reading too much into who people "say" they voted for.  If they're unhappy (or embarrassed), they often lie, especially to exit pollsters (and most pollsters in general).

Totally agree, Sam, and I took that into account in that at least 6% of voters claimed to have voted for someone else or not voted. Even extrapolating that VERY hard towards people falsely claiming they didn't vote for Obama, at worst that corresponds to the 48/51 job approval/disapproval numbers from the exit poll. A more reasonable extrapolation, buttressed by African-Amercian turnout being down to 16% from 20% last year IIRC, and that 48/51  result being somewhat lower than most other VA polls in the last month (notwithstanding the WaPo poll, as I know your opinion on their polling) ;-) is that a good number of Obama voters were not sufficiently enthused by Creigh Deeds to come out and vote this year. Assuming they'll remain so when Obama's on the ballot in 2012, or even to a lesser degree for next year's congressional races put Obama and national issues in the forefront.

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Color me skeptical on this. If I'm justifiably reluctant to view either governors race as a referendum on Obama or the national parties, I'm extremely reluctant to draw that conclusion from state legislature results. If anything it merely shows VA voters are willing to back the GOP and reject the Democrats regarding control of the state government, I question how well that translates to congressional races next year.

Put another way, I see the VA GOP's success in assembly races to be indicative of coattails from McDonnell's gargantuan win, which in turn had little to nothing to do with a referendum on Obama or the Democratic Congress when, again, 1 in 5 McDonnell voters approve of Obama's job performance (compared to 1 in 20 Deeds voters who disapprove).
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Meeker
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« Reply #1228 on: November 05, 2009, 02:29:27 PM »

Can someone map the LG and AG races?
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jokerman
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« Reply #1229 on: November 05, 2009, 02:37:45 PM »

This looks like an angry white men phenomenon.

I think this vindicates my deep suspicion of the bourgeiosie.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #1230 on: November 05, 2009, 05:21:08 PM »

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.




Also worth noting that the reported presidential vote of VA voters yesterday according to that same exit poll was 51-43 McCain. Obviously a lot of Obama voters were not inspired enough by Deeds (imagine that) to come out and vote this year. Anyone assumes those same voters will stay home when Obama is back on the ballot in 2012 does so at their own peril.

Also HIGHLY worth noting is that 1 in 5 McDonnell voters approve of the job Obama is doing, compared to only 1 in 20 Deeds voters who disapprove of the President's job. (The numbers for NJ, FWIW, indicate over 1 in 4 voters who approve of Obama's job performance didn't vote for Corzine.)

One of the most insightful comments I've read on the forum is Spade's note that all 50 governors offices can be considered "open seats" in terms of party competitiveness. Federal races obviously are much, MUCH different in that regard. At the risk of over-extrapolating too much in the other direction of the MSM's common wisdom this morning, I see Owens's upset win in NY-23 as far more indicative of 2010 midterms than 2 governors races (but still admittedly only a tiny glimpse).

Be careful in reading too much into who people "say" they voted for.  If they're unhappy (or embarassed), they often lie, especially to exit pollsters (and most pollsters in general).

FWIW, you've stated my point accurately, but let me caution that I do think governor's races are indicative of something when there are serious downballot effects like we saw in VA.  For example, Republicans, according to my maths, destroyed 6 years of gains in one evening in the House of Delegates.

That does say something to me about what may happen in 2010.  But one of the reasons why I said that I didn't see why Republicans were gleeful is because a swing back to 2002/2004-type numbers (or perhaps worse in Appalachia) in the South and Appalachia is simply not enough to take back the House. 

Now, if these swings started showing up in other suburbs outside this area, there might be something. 

So would you see the New Jersey Assembly results and lack of GOP coattails as more important than Corzine's loss?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1231 on: November 05, 2009, 06:15:37 PM »

Based on the Exit poll:

- party id: Rep: 37 % dem: 33 % I: 30 %

No surprise...

- Obama job approval: 48 %

And not 57 % like wapo poll gave one week ago... it's very similar to the RAS daily track poll.

-full time working woman (28 %): have vote at only 51 % for McDOnnell. Probably the incidence of the thesis...

-16 % black. It's a little more than predicted. And Mc Donnell is weak with them: only 9 % of the vote. I would be curious to see the latino vote but the poll doesn't give this infirmation.




Also worth noting that the reported presidential vote of VA voters yesterday according to that same exit poll was 51-43 McCain. Obviously a lot of Obama voters were not inspired enough by Deeds (imagine that) to come out and vote this year. Anyone assumes those same voters will stay home when Obama is back on the ballot in 2012 does so at their own peril.

Also HIGHLY worth noting is that 1 in 5 McDonnell voters approve of the job Obama is doing, compared to only 1 in 20 Deeds voters who disapprove of the President's job. (The numbers for NJ, FWIW, indicate over 1 in 4 voters who approve of Obama's job performance didn't vote for Corzine.)

One of the most insightful comments I've read on the forum is Spade's note that all 50 governors offices can be considered "open seats" in terms of party competitiveness. Federal races obviously are much, MUCH different in that regard. At the risk of over-extrapolating too much in the other direction of the MSM's common wisdom this morning, I see Owens's upset win in NY-23 as far more indicative of 2010 midterms than 2 governors races (but still admittedly only a tiny glimpse).

Be careful in reading too much into who people "say" they voted for.  If they're unhappy (or embarassed), they often lie, especially to exit pollsters (and most pollsters in general).

FWIW, you've stated my point accurately, but let me caution that I do think governor's races are indicative of something when there are serious downballot effects like we saw in VA.  For example, Republicans, according to my maths, destroyed 6 years of gains in one evening in the House of Delegates.

That does say something to me about what may happen in 2010.  But one of the reasons why I said that I didn't see why Republicans were gleeful is because a swing back to 2002/2004-type numbers (or perhaps worse in Appalachia) in the South and Appalachia is simply not enough to take back the House. 

Now, if these swings started showing up in other suburbs outside this area, there might be something. 

So would you see the New Jersey Assembly results and lack of GOP coattails as more important than Corzine's loss?

Yes, probably.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1232 on: November 06, 2009, 07:43:20 AM »

It's a little facile to assume that all the Republican wins in the House of Delegates were solely the result of McDonnell's coattails. In the 3rd district, Dan Bowling basically didn't run a campaign; I don't know if he just expected to be handed a third term or what, but he let himself be outspent 2-1 by the Republicans. In the 32nd district, Dave Poisson never managed to build a base of support; he beat a far right-wing incumbent in 2005, then only managed a 6-percent win over a candidate he outspent 2-1 in 2007. He lost by 15% against a terrible candidate, while Deeds lost the district by 22%; I'm not sure he would have won unless Deeds had won the district (and he hadn't in 2005, so that was unlikely). In the 83rd, Joe Bouchard barely beat Chris Stolle in 2007, a good Democratic year, and he just had no chance to overcome the Republican lean of the district.

The 23rd, 34th, 51st, and to a lesser extent the 67th (Caputo had the same problem as Poisson, winning against a wingnut then barely beating an opponent he outspent 2-1) were definitely the result of the McDonnell wave, though.

The 21st, of course, is still outstanding, and had the same problem as the 83rd, being on McDonnell's home turf, but Mathieson ran a smart campaign, hitting Villanueva early and hard, and was helped by Jody Wagner's presence on the ticket -- she only lost the district by 47-53. A slightly better performance statewide and he would have pulled it off.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1233 on: November 06, 2009, 10:45:12 AM »

If Obama's approval (according to exit polls) is 48% among a voting population that would have elected McCain in 2008, doesn't that mean that among registered voters (or presidential likely voters), his approval would be somewhere in the 50s?

Also, I hope Virginia dems learn from this election to never nominate a fucking blue dog, moderate hero, rural Virginian again. That's not how we win this state anymore and you'll just end up pissing off base Democrats. Deed's campaign was pathetic and he was a pathetic candidate. He did worse than a liberal, black, possibly Muslim, Chicago politician in rural Virginia and coal country. Christ. And now your state has a theocrat running it for the next four years. Idiots.
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Badger
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« Reply #1234 on: November 06, 2009, 01:15:45 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2009, 01:17:23 PM by Badger »

It's a little facile to assume that all the Republican wins in the House of Delegates were solely the result of McDonnell's coattails. In the 3rd district, Dan Bowling basically didn't run a campaign; I don't know if he just expected to be handed a third term or what, but he let himself be outspent 2-1 by the Republicans. In the 32nd district, Dave Poisson never managed to build a base of support; he beat a far right-wing incumbent in 2005, then only managed a 6-percent win over a candidate he outspent 2-1 in 2007. He lost by 15% against a terrible candidate, while Deeds lost the district by 22%; I'm not sure he would have won unless Deeds had won the district (and he hadn't in 2005, so that was unlikely). In the 83rd, Joe Bouchard barely beat Chris Stolle in 2007, a good Democratic year, and he just had no chance to overcome the Republican lean of the district.

The 23rd, 34th, 51st, and to a lesser extent the 67th (Caputo had the same problem as Poisson, winning against a wingnut then barely beating an opponent he outspent 2-1) were definitely the result of the McDonnell wave, though.

The 21st, of course, is still outstanding, and had the same problem as the 83rd, being on McDonnell's home turf, but Mathieson ran a smart campaign, hitting Villanueva early and hard, and was helped by Jody Wagner's presence on the ticket -- she only lost the district by 47-53. A slightly better performance statewide and he would have pulled it off.

My point exactly. The GOP's gains in the VA Statehouse had jack squat to do with Obama or Congress, but rather over local issues and personalities.
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Badger
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« Reply #1235 on: November 06, 2009, 03:33:54 PM »

If Obama's approval (according to exit polls) is 48% among a voting population that would have elected McCain in 2008, doesn't that mean that among registered voters (or presidential likely voters), his approval would be somewhere in the 50s?

Also, I hope Virginia dems learn from this election to never nominate a fucking blue dog, moderate hero, rural Virginian again. That's not how we win this state anymore and you'll just end up pissing off base Democrats. Deed's campaign was pathetic and he was a pathetic candidate. He did worse than a liberal, black, possibly Muslim, Chicago politician in rural Virginia and coal country. Christ. And now your state has a theocrat running it for the next four years. Idiots.

True dat. I'm continuing my rant on this. We're so used to the usual southern Democrat strategy of having to keep their national candidate/president at arms length to reinforce their moderate/ conservative cred, just not so much to alienate the (largely black) base. This doesn't apply to VA's results at all. Let's keep this straight: OBAMA IS VASTLY MORE POPULAR THAN DEEDS (and Corzine for that matter). Deeds could only have been helped by unabashedly wrapping himself around Obama the way Corzine did.

Don't believe me? Consider the numbers: What if Deeds had done so and managed to cut in half McDonnell's share of voters who approve of Obama's job performance from 20% to 10, even if his own share of votes from those disapproving of Obama was likewise halved from 5% to 2.5? That alone would've resulted in an at least respectable 54-46 loss.

In addition, the nonwhite share of the vote dropped from 30% in 2008 to 22% (African-Am from 20% to 16). By contrast, the share of nonwhite voters in NJ remained the same (27%) from last year. What if Deeds had tied himself enough to Obama to energized black and Latinos to maintain the same 08 turnout levels (percentage-wise) like in NJ? (Yes, I know there's a huge difference in terms of the GOTV machine between NJ and VA.) At his and McDonnell's share of the nonwhite vote, that calculates out to a split decision tie.

Yes, this is a highly implausible stretch and even as a best case scenario only gave Deeds a 50/50 shot at victory. But even falling short it could've likely avoided such a humiliating smackdown, and the underlying point is clear. The conventional wisdom of the NJ and VA races being some sort of mini-referendum against Obama's policies are utterly misplaced. I'm usually not a fan of the "energize the base" strategy to win elections, though conservatives certainly seem enamoured of it in recent years. In this case however it isn't just the base, but anywhere from a strong majority in blue states like NJ to about even numbers in purple states like VA that like Obama's job performance. As Deeds proved, there's no real reason to distance oneself politically from the President in battleground states. Heck, Corzine trying to run practically as Obama's running mate carried him to a close race despite being only slightly more popular than tile grout and chlamydia since before Obama was even elected!

Despite Corzine being a mediocre governor, I was tepidly rooting for him. Partially because I don't entirely trust a former Bush appointee, even a purported relative moderate like Christie, in the countless day to day decisions and appointments that largely avoid media scrutiny, not to mention redistricting. But the biggest reason I preferred to see Corzine win is that I damned well knew that, contrary to all facts and the most basic analysis, I knew the lazy sheeplike nature of the MSM would inevitably turn Christie winning plus McDonnell's inevitable victory into a running narrative of "Obama and Democrats suffer setback; GOP resurgent".

Sure as hell that as a 47-46 Corzine win combined with NY-23 would've changed the entire narrative to something like: "Electorate uncertain; Public not willing to abandon Obama yet, but GOP not dead". But of course the NJ results we got have been spun even beyond the Fox crowd and other right wing talking heads as a "defeat" for Obama, notwithstanding he had a friggin' 57% job approval among those very Jersey voters supposedly trying to "send the White House a message"! And now that myth is in danger of turning into a self-fullfilling prophecy, reality be damned.

About the only real question this election raises is how well Obama's popularity is transferable to Democratic candidates in federal congressional races next year, both in terms of support and turnout. I submit that such races make national issues and opinions on Obama much more relevent than in state gubernatorial races. No president can entirely transfer their popularity to local congressional candidates, and Obama will be no exception. But I don't expect anywhere near the level of 20-27% defections Corzine and Deeds suffered. Even nonpolitical junkie voters understand their vote for congress or senate matters much more to supporting/opposing Obama than their vote for a governor. There obviously may be exceptions for a particularly personally unpopular incumbent like Corzine (e.g. Dodd), but don't expect to see wholescale support of Republicans by Obama supporters like we saw Tuesday. And it was exactly that support that turned NJ into a win and VA into a landslide for Republicans.

That's it folks. No other lesson to be taken from Tuesday regardless of what the national media tells us. After all, regardless of whether the story is pro-Obama or anti-Obama (excepting Fox, of course) it's better for business that they have some story to report on rather than having to admit there's really no story here at all, right?

Okay, rant (finally) off.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1236 on: November 06, 2009, 07:22:39 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2009, 07:38:44 PM by Lunar »

it's the wrong lesson to interpret the election as "never nominate a blue dog again" -- that's just stupid....there were so many factors going into Deeds loss, mostly a horrible campaign.  Deeds decision to try and keep himself at arms length from Obama was part of his attempt to keep the race local as swing voters in VA showed up in his polling as opposing major Democratic initiatives in D.C.....but Deeds problem was that he didn't realize that he was going to own Obama no matter what.

Remember that this was an election where the Democrats controlled all levels of D.C. government and had controlled the VA governorship for the last eight years, and it was a special election, pretty unique circumstances and the right move would have been to attach himself to Obama at the hip, ignore hard-to-please independents and just turn out as many Obama surge voters as humanly possible.  He still would have loss, but it's really simplistic to say Deeds opposing cap-n-trade or whatever had anything to do with his loss and on down the list....McDonnell simply was a quintessential suburban candidate that ran as if Fairfax was his hometown

one of the biggest flaws of the Deeds campaign, as I've said, was that they tried to run as Mark Warner part II...I mean, promising to do the same thing and be the same person as the people before you isn't going to inspire a lot of people
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1237 on: November 06, 2009, 07:42:02 PM »

Bashing Cap'N Trade was somewhat understandable as Virginia is a coal producing state.
What really pissed off liberals was his statement that he would opt out of the public option.
I remember Tom Jensen of PPP saying that the number of Democrats who decided to stay home increased substantialy after that.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1238 on: November 06, 2009, 07:46:03 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2009, 07:47:39 PM by Lunar »

Bashing Cap'N Trade was somewhat understandable as Virginia is a coal producing state.
What really pissed off liberals was his statement that he would opt out of the public option.

He said he would consider it.  Which was stupid.  All he had to say was "If the final bill lowers health care prices for Virginians, I'll whole-heartedly support it, if it does not, I won't, I haven't seen the final bill, no one has" if he wanted to bluedog himself out there...very confusing answer overall.  It was weird too because no Democratic governor in even the most Republican of states would opt-out, so it was like a totally insincere way to piss of the base

Also, what % of voters last Tuesday even knew what cap-n-trade was?  10%?   Deeds did a great blogosphere outreach during the primary, but after that a surge of strategists rushed down from D.C., he really let his campaign be run by strategists trying to turn him into a cookie-cutter candidate, which Deeds was just awful at.

His campaign was very self-conscious of a rebellion of Independents against national Democratic policies...it's good to be self-aware, but he obviously was cautious to an extreme fault.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1239 on: November 06, 2009, 07:53:04 PM »

The lesson is not "don't nominate a blue dog" so much as it is "don't nominate someone who will drive his campaign in the ground". Unfortunately, the latter is a lot harder to predict than the former.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1240 on: November 06, 2009, 07:58:49 PM »

The lesson is not "don't nominate a blue dog" so much as it is "don't nominate someone who will drive his campaign in the ground". Unfortunately, the latter is a lot harder to predict than the former.

Deeds campaign got SERIOUSLY spooked during the summer lull in Obama's approval too, from what I've heard...we're going to be getting more and more leaks about how awful some of his advisers *cough cough Monica Dixon cough cough* were in the coming days I suspect.

Really, my advice to all campaigns is to avoid being skittish, find a working role that your candidate feels comfortable in and stick to it while changing the emphasis based upon the needs of the day.    
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1241 on: November 06, 2009, 08:06:24 PM »

Here's a precinct-level map of Fairfax County from New Dominion Project:



It's about what I expected to see, except for the one Democratic stronghold in western Fairfax. Looks like Reston.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1242 on: November 06, 2009, 10:06:19 PM »

Based on the current totals, exactly 497 more people voted for Governor in 2009 than in 2005.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1243 on: November 07, 2009, 04:39:16 AM »

Reston isn't included in James Moran's district for nothing, you know.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1244 on: November 07, 2009, 07:03:24 AM »

State Sen. Edd Houck (D) is not ruling out a post in the McDonnell administration:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/06/AR2009110604009_pf.html

Democrats had better hope like hell that he doesn't take the job.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1245 on: November 07, 2009, 10:18:30 AM »

State Sen. Edd Houck (D) is not ruling out a post in the McDonnell administration:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/06/AR2009110604009_pf.html

Democrats had better hope like hell that he doesn't take the job.

Whats the margin of the Democratic Majority in the Senate? I expected that we would either see some kind of appointment or a party switch in the STate Senate based on the results, but I am wasn't sure of the margine of the control.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1246 on: November 07, 2009, 10:20:00 AM »

State Sen. Edd Houck (D) is not ruling out a post in the McDonnell administration:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/06/AR2009110604009_pf.html

Democrats had better hope like hell that he doesn't take the job.

Whats the margin of the Democratic Majority in the Senate? I expected that we would either see some kind of appointment or a party switch in the STate Senate based on the results, but I am wasn't sure of the margine of the control.

21-19 for the Democrats, with two impending Republican vacancies. Democrats have a shot at Cuccinelli's seat. The Senate was not up this year, luckily for the Democrats.
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MODU
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« Reply #1247 on: November 07, 2009, 12:29:00 PM »

it's the wrong lesson to interpret the election as "never nominate a blue dog again" -- that's just stupid

^^^^

Thank you for using your brain.  People outside of Virginia need to remember that the state is moderate-to-conservative in their political ideology.  Unlike San Fran, where you can run a generic hard liberal and win by a wide margin, attempting that in Virginia will result in defeat.  Deeds loss, among other things, was more due to his extensive negative campaign.  While at first it gave him a bump in the polls, the continuing bashing of McDonnell over the single topic led to voter fatique as well as leading to doubts about Deeds (thinking he was a one-trick pony).  It had nothing to do with him being a blue dog.  That was actually a strong asset for him, and why he beat Moran and McAuliffe.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1248 on: November 11, 2009, 08:12:26 AM »

Villanueva wins securing the 6th net House of Delegates pickup for the Republicans:

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/11/villanueva-declared-winner-21st-district-race
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1249 on: November 19, 2009, 07:40:48 PM »

VPAP posted maps of the election results by state legislative district:

House (McDonnell won 75/100 districts)
Senate (McDonnell won 29/40 districts)

Had Republicans fielded candidates in the 2nd and 4th and gotten stronger candidates in the 10th, 41st, 87th, and 99th, they could have easily made a double-digit pickup in the House.
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