Virginia 2009 Megathread

[they don't love you like i love you]

No one who vote for McCain is going to vote for McAuliffe other than an insignificant handful of PUMA clowns. You don't attract crossover support by chairing a partisan position, even if you do an absolutely pathetic job at it. And not everyone who voted for Obama will vote for him either. That's why he has no chance.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

[Mr.Phips]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

Was the Knight/LaCombe race actually expected to be close?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

Was the Knight/LaCombe race actually expected to be close?

Not really, no. Terry McAuliffe actually gave LaCombe $5k (I guess to show that he would support other Virginia Dems running), which composed more than half his entire war chest.

Final result: 83-17 for Knight. Turnout was about 6.5%, and LaCombe actually almost won one precinct, he only lost Seatack by 40-38.

[Mr.Phips]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

Could the Moran seat actually be competitive?  I know its a heavily Dem seat, but Democrats lost a similarly heavily Dem state House seat in Delaware a couple weeks ago. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

Could the Moran seat actually be competitive?  I know its a heavily Dem seat, but Democrats lost a similarly heavily Dem state House seat in Delaware a couple weeks ago. 

Obama got 75% in the 46th; I think it would require every Republican in the district to turn out for a win. I don't think Moran resigning is as controversial as the situation in Delaware, where the candidate ran unopposed then immediately resigned to take a job in New Mexico.

[Mr.Phips]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

Could the Moran seat actually be competitive?  I know its a heavily Dem seat, but Democrats lost a similarly heavily Dem state House seat in Delaware a couple weeks ago. 

Obama got 75% in the 46th; I think it would require every Republican in the district to turn out for a win. I don't think Moran resigning is as controversial as the situation in Delaware, where the candidate ran unopposed then immediately resigned to take a job in New Mexico.

Yeah, I was just doing the math there.  He won it by 74%-25%. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

One more notable special election coming up: the chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors (vacated by newly-minted Congressman Gerry Connolly) will be elected on February 3. Candidates are Braddock district Supervisor Sharon Bulova, currently the vice-chair of the board, on the Democratic side, and Springfield district Supervisor Pat Herrity, son of 80s board chairman Jack Herrity, on the Republican side. So ironically, regardless of who wins, this will require another special election to fill the seat left open by the winner.

[Mr.Phips]

One more notable special election coming up: the chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors (vacated by newly-minted Congressman Gerry Connolly) will be elected on February 3. Candidates are Braddock district Supervisor Sharon Bulova, currently the vice-chair of the board, on the Democratic side, and Springfield district Supervisor Pat Herrity, son of 80s board chairman Jack Herrity, on the Republican side. So ironically, regardless of who wins, this will require another special election to fill the seat left open by the winner.

Who is the favorite there?  I would imagine the Democrats due to the substantial Democratic lean of Fairfax County. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

One more notable special election coming up: the chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors (vacated by newly-minted Congressman Gerry Connolly) will be elected on February 3. Candidates are Braddock district Supervisor Sharon Bulova, currently the vice-chair of the board, on the Democratic side, and Springfield district Supervisor Pat Herrity, son of 80s board chairman Jack Herrity, on the Republican side. So ironically, regardless of who wins, this will require another special election to fill the seat left open by the winner.

Who is the favorite there?  I would imagine the Democrats due to the substantial Democratic lean of Fairfax County. 

In a normal turnout election, there'd be no question. With a funky special election turnout, I'd say a slight edge to Bulova. I don't know how personally likeable Herrity is, but he might be able to get some votes from the name, even though Fairfax in the 80s was a completely different county, politically.

[Lunar]

I still think Terry is going to win the Democratic nom.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0109/McAuliffes_Warnerlike_message.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lunar]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/07/AR2009010702452.html?hpid=moreheadlines

Someone accused Terry to his face of intentionally dropping his G's on his verbs once his campaign started

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It would seem we're in for a crowded Democratic primary ballot. A fourth Democrat is running, Michael Signer, who served in the Warner administration and worked for Clark and Edwards in 2004.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It would seem we're in for a crowded Democratic primary ballot. A fourth Democrat is running, Michael Signer, who served in the Warner administration and worked for Clark and Edwards in 2004.

He's actually running for Lt. Governor.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It would seem we're in for a crowded Democratic primary ballot. A fourth Democrat is running, Michael Signer, who served in the Warner administration and worked for Clark and Edwards in 2004.

He's actually running for Lt. Governor.

Right, I failed to mention that. I did add him in the right place on the OP, so I'm not completely out of it.

[Eraserhead]

So can't McAuliffe's opponents just create an ad where they string together different videos of him trashing Obama? That would probably be enough to destroy his primary chances right there... but then again, that wouldn't be too fun. The guy has such an incredible record of failure to dig into. This is going to be great stuff.

[Mr.Phips]

It appears that in the race for Brian Moran's old seat, the Democrat is only winning by 17 votes.  This is a district that Obama got 75% in. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Damn, I forgot about special election excitement part two. Looks like Charniele Herring barely won this one, by 16 votes. Turnout was about 5.6%. Maybe next time they'll make the Democratic candidate selection a little more, well, democratic. Herring was chosen via firehouse primary three days after Moran tendered his resignation, and was the only halfway serious candidate.

So yeah, these uber-low-turnout elections can surprise you. I'm downgrading Sharon Bulova's stock to "tossup".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, it's getting really crowded in here. Pat Edmonson, a member of the Virginia Beach school board, is the fifth Democrat to announce for Lieutenant Governor.

[Lunar]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/15/mcauliffe-winning-over-vi_n_158130.html

In his efforts to ingratiate himself among Virginia voters, Terry McAuliffe is finding a positive reception among a somewhat unlikely constituency: the state's progressive netroots.

Days after officially launching his campaign to become governor of the commonwealth, McAuliffe has made noticeable strides in drawing local bloggers to his cause. His efforts have helped endear his candidacy to some of the more passionate and naturally skeptical primary voters. On a broader level, however, they have helped scrub away the critique that the former DNC chair was a carpetbagger whose political ambitions were built on a well-oiled fundraising apparatus.

"[T]here's more to this guy than meets the eye," Chris Graham of the progressive August Free Press wrote last week, "because this guy clearly knows what he's talking about, and I'm saying that as someone whose job for the past 14 years has been knowing Virginia politics inside and out."

"Earlier this evening, I attended a town hall meeting with Terry McAuliffe here in Bristol, wrote the New Dominion Projects' Neal Osborne, who, it should be noted, would go on to endorse McAuliffe's primary opponent, Rep. Brian Moran. "I have to say I was very impressed with him (of course, I went in with nearly zero expectations). If nothing else, Terry McAuliffe is super-energetic, as I'm sure anyone who watched MSNBC over the last twelve months knows."

"Last night, I attended a dinner with Terry McAuliffe to hear more about his campaign," read an entry on the blog NotLarrySabato. "Almost three hours later, I came away very impressed. The other two candidates for Governor have made a HUGE strategic error in questioning Terry's Virginia credentials. The bar is so low for Terry on knowing local issues that he could have jumped it with some minor prep work. Instead he crushed that argument by being totally prepared to answer every issue that was discussed."

That McAuliffe is turning heads among Virginia's progressive bloggers is both something of a surprise and a not-inconsequential development in the 2009 race. The state's blogging community played a major role in helping propel Jim Webb to his current Senate seat, though the closure of the progressive hub Raising Kane could mitigate its collective influence.

On the surface, McAuliffe doesn't appear to be the type of candidate around which the netroots would organize. Campaigning, at times sharply, against Barack Obama and having roots in the big-money quarters of politics are traits anathema to many progressives. The current good reviews could end up being a mere short-term flirtation.

But the charismatic Clinton confidant has worked to win local bloggers over. Keeping the issues primarily local, his campaign has hosted a conference call, a group dinner, phone calls and one-on-one meetings with members of that community. Blog ads are set to go up soon as well. And the gubernatorial contest has just begun.

"He has been impressive since he has started running," said NotLarrySabato author Ben Tribbett, who is staying neutral in the primary. "I think he has taken the different candidates to another level, on fundraising and message."

"I think he is making a very credible effort to reach out to bloggers," said Rick Howell, the author of the blog Rick Howell Speaks. "I know that the other two candidates have been in the race for some time and I don't think they have done blogger conference calls, at least not ones I've been invited to... I don't think that this is enough, but I think it helps. He has identified this modern new trend in politics with the Internet -- fundraising and quick communications -- and I don't think it is a coincidence that he is suddenly in the newspapers more."

Not everyone, of course, is ready to jump head first on board the McAuliffe bandwagon. One local blogger, who asked not to be identified, said the former DNC chair's grasp of the Virginian issues was commendable, but his solution to the problems -- "usually throwing more money at them" -- was not. Another local blogger recently rapped McAuliffe for not being progressive enough in his renewable energy proposal.

Neutral observers, meanwhile, see in McAuliffe's blog outreach not a shared ethos between the former DNC chair and Virginia's bloggers, but rather another well considered step in a campaign that is both meticulous and overpowering in its approach.

"So far, they are doing all of the smart groundwork sort of stuff," said Craig Brians, a political science professor at Virginia Tech. "They are laying that groundwork and trying to raise the barriers to entry for other people by doing the mass media buys and endearing [Terry] to people who naturally wouldn't tend towards him. They are giving the blogging community something that is fairly sacred in politics: personal attention."

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's not surprising Ben Tribbett is head over heels for McAuliffe, he was an incredibly obnoxious Hillary supporter during the primaries.

And also, I should note he tends to back primary losers like Leslie Byrne and Hillary.

[Lunar]

It's not surprising Ben Tribbett is head over heels for McAuliffe, he was an incredibly obnoxious Hillary supporter during the primaries.

And also, I should note he tends to back primary losers like Leslie Byrne and Hillary.

Regardless, McAuliffe is running an incredibly smooth campaign operation and I expect him to win his party's nomination.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Campaign finance reports for the second half of 2008 were due today. This is what they're looking like (note: this is my interpretation of the data, I make no guarantees for accuracy):

Creigh Deeds (D) - $597k starting cash on hand, $610k raised, $404k spent = $803k cash on hand
Terry McAuliffe (D) - $0 starting cash on hand, $947k raised, $229k spent = $718k cash on hand
Bob McDonnell (R) - $684k starting cash on hand, $2,098k raised, $747k spent = $2,035k cash on hand
Brian Moran (D) - $924k starting cash on hand, $761k raised, $916k spent = $769k cash on hand

And now for Lt. Governor:

Bill Bolling (R) - $658k starting COH, $291k raised, $233k spent = $716k COH
Jon Bowerbank (D) - $112k starting COH, $377k raised, $309k spent = $180k COH
Jody Wagner (D) - $0 starting COH, $398k raised, $113k spent = $285k COH

Attorney General:

John Brownlee (R) - $73k starting COH, $111k raised, $68k spent = $116k COH
Ken Cuccinelli (R) - $111k starting COH, $225k raised, $115k spent = $221k COH
David Foster (R) - $29k starting COH, $65k raised, $41k spent = $53k COH
Steve Shannon (D) - $0 starting COH, $756k raised, $10k spent = $746k COH

[Eraserhead]

It's not surprising Ben Tribbett is head over heels for McAuliffe, he was an incredibly obnoxious Hillary supporter during the primaries.

And also, I should note he tends to back primary losers like Leslie Byrne and Hillary.

Regardless, McAuliffe is running an incredibly smooth campaign operation and I expect him to win his party's nomination.

Knowing McAuliffe, he'll probably find some way to blow it in the end.

[Lunar]

What has Moran been spending his money on?

And Terry is very, very, very self-conscious about appearing to "buy" the race.  His big donations won't come yet