Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here:



Get over yourself.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah that's true.  You spend your days furiously reloading Atlas instead.

I'm sorry but that excuse isn't going to fly.  Tender Branson or persons xyz are always over here right away if the result is favorable to Democrats.

Go away troll.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah that's true.  You spend your days furiously reloading Atlas instead.

I'm sorry but that excuse isn't going to fly.  Tender Branson or persons xyz are always over here right away if the result is favorable to Democrats.

Man, I´m from Europe. When that poll came out I was sleeping ...

[Badger]

Yeah that's true.  You spend your days furiously reloading Atlas instead.

I'm sorry but that excuse isn't going to fly.  Tender Branson or persons xyz are always over here right away if the result is favorable to Democrats.

Man, I´m from Europe. When that poll came out I was sleeping ...

That's obviously no excuse whatsoever! He caught us dead to rights, folks. My shame is palpable.

[Stampever]

Yeah that's true.  You spend your days furiously reloading Atlas instead.

I'm sorry but that excuse isn't going to fly.  Tender Branson or persons xyz are always over here right away if the result is favorable to Democrats.

What the hell is your problem?  Why didn't you just search for/post the poll results yourself if you're having such a heartache over it?  If you're capable enough to use a computer, your capable enough to use a search engine.

[Rowan]

Two new polls today:

PPP
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 40%

SUSA
McDonnell 58%
Deeds 41%

[Meeker]

It's starting to look possible that Wagner or Shannon will finish ahead of Deeds.

[Beet]

Shannon's opponent makes McDonnell look moderate.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I expect Wagner will do 2-3% better than Deeds. She will undoubtedly do better in Virginia Beach, her hometown, and will probably pick up some Independent McDonnell voters who want to split their ballot (and the useless Lt. Gov. office is a safe way to do so).

Shannon will probably do about as well or a little better than Deeds.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I thought I'd come up with some fundraising statistics for your enjoyment...

The most expensive House of Delegates races this cycle (as of October 21):

1. 41st - Del. Dave Albo (R) vs. Greg Werkheiser (D) - total raised: $1,462,361
2. 83rd - Del. Joe Bouchard (D) vs. Chris Stolle (R) - total raised: $1,189,215
3. 86th - Del. Tom Rust (R) vs. Stevens Miller (D) - total raised: $1,162,059
4. 34th - Del. Margi Vanderhye (D) vs. Barbara Comstock (R) - total raised: $1,153,319
5. 93rd - Del. Phil Hamilton (R) vs. Robin Abbott (D) - total raised: $1,080,731
6. 21st - Del. Bobby Mathieson (D) vs. Ron Villanueva (R) - total raised: $1,018,520
7. 58th - Del. Rob Bell (R) vs. Cynthia Neff (D) - total raised: $970,783
8. 67th - Del. Chuck Caputo (D) vs. Jim LeMunyon (R) - total raised: $955,775
9. 51st - Del. Paul Nichols (D) vs. Richard Anderson (R) - total raised: $857,567
10. 23rd - Del. Shannon Valentine (D) vs. Scott Garrett (R) - total raised: $820,487

Yes, a million dollars is being spent on what will probably end up being 20,000-25,000 voters.

On the other hand, here are the cheapest races that have both a Democrat and Republican running:

1. 20th - open seat - Dickie Bell (R) vs. Erik Curren (D) - total raised: $87,009
2. 11th - Del. Onzlee Ware (D) vs. Troy Bird (R) - total raised: $101,486 (includes $4,535 spent by unsuccessful primary candidate)
3. 46th - Del. Charniele Herring (D) vs. Sasha Gong (D) - total raised: $113,569
4. 99th - Del. Al Pollard (D) vs. Catherine Crabill (R) - total raised: $114,497
5. 39th - Del. Vivian Watts (D) vs. Joe Bury (R) and two other guys - total raised: $122,725
6. 53rd - Del. James Scott (D) vs. Christopher Merola (R) - total raised: $137,749
7. 48th - Del. Bob Brink (D) vs. Aaron Ringel (R) - total raised: $142,367
8. 25th - Del. Steve Landes (R) vs. Greg Marrow (D) - total raised: $144,681 (includes $646 spent by unsuccessful primary candidate)
9. 80th - open seat - Matthew James (D) vs. Jennifer Lee (R) - total raised: $152,729 (includes $77,174 spent by unsuccessful primary candidates)
10. 24th - Del. Ben Cline (R) vs. Jeff Price (D) - total raised: $154,762

Biggest fundraising advantages by challengers:

1. 13th - John Bell (D) has raised $515,115, while Del. Bob Marshall (R) has raised $156,141, a 3.3 to 1 advantage.
2. 6th - Carole Pratt (D) has raised $223,912, while Del. Anne Crockett-Stark (R) has raised $106,834, a 2.1 to 1 advantage.
3. 3rd - Will Morefield (R) has raised $207,348, while Del. Dan Bowling (D) has raised $104,043, a 2 to 1 advantage.
4. 82nd - Peter Schmidt (D) has raised $201,884, while Del. Bob Purkey (R) has raised $117,310, a 1.7 to 1 advantage.

Sadly, Morefield is probably the only of these that will win.

[Tender Branson]

3 new polls out today:

Research 2000

McDonnell: 54%
Deeds: 44%

Suffolk University (Oct. 26-28)

McDonnell: 52%
Deeds: 40%

Roanoke College (Oct. 21-27)

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 36%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, this week I've received 7 campaign mailers. 5 were from Peter Schmidt (Democrat running for the House of Delegates, if you haven't been reading the thread), and 1 each were from Ken Stolle (Republican running for Sheriff) and John Bell (Democrat running for Sheriff, not the NoVa House candidate). Not a word from any of the statewide candidates; they're probably not bothering since I voted in the Dem primary.

[Meeker]

I handed out lit for John Bell when we were canvassing for Deeds (Mathieson lit as well). Does he have any chance?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not that I can see. Stolle has all the institutional Republican support locked up, with the sole exception of the Virginia Beach Taxpayer Alliance, which I'm guessing has to do with Stolle's voting record in the Senate. It seems to be so much a foregone conclusion that Stolle's buddy Jeff McWaters and City Council member Rosemary Wilson started fighting for his Senate seat two months ago. (The Democrats can't talk about fielding a candidate since it means acknowledging that Bell will lose.)

He also has a lot more money than Bell -- I was honestly surprised to see a mailer from Bell in the mail today.

[MatthewZD]

I've received several mailings from McDonnell and Deeds, of course.  I've received little if any from the LG candidates, and I've gotten a few from the AG candidates.

What's odd is that it seems like I've gotten a LOT for the House of Delegates incumbent, Republican Manoli Loupassi.  He's in a pretty safe GOP district and will probably win 55-45.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Loupassi's got a nobody opponent; he'll probably get 80+% of the vote. He's probably just building his name recognition to run for the State Senate or something.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a campaign mailer from a candidate for Delegate in Arlington.



Yes, it's from a Republican.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Absentee voting is (slightly) up from 2005:

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/10/absentee-voting-virginia-ahead-2005

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Tracks with my predicted turnout of around 2.1 million voters.

[MatthewZD]

Loupassi's got a nobody opponent; he'll probably get 80+% of the vote. He's probably just building his name recognition to run for the State Senate or something.

Wouldn't surprise me at all.  If I had to guess, US House in case Eric Cantor moves on in a couple of years.  He could also go for US Senate or Governor in a few years.  I would say Richmond Mayor but the city itself is pretty strong Democratic. 

[Tender Branson]

New Mason-Dixon stuff for Governor out (probably) tomorrow.

Lieutenant Governor: Bill Bolling (R) 47%, Jody Wagner (D) 34%

Attorney General: Ken Cuccinelli (R) 46%, Steve Shannon (D) 32%

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/POLL31_20091030-223207/302801/

[Tender Branson]

Mason Dixon:

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 41%

http://static.mgnetwork.com/rtd/pdfs/20091101_poll.pdf

[CARLHAYDEN]

Stick a fork in Deeds, he's done.

[Mr.Phips]

So, this week I've received 7 campaign mailers. 5 were from Peter Schmidt (Democrat running for the House of Delegates, if you haven't been reading the thread), and 1 each were from Ken Stolle (Republican running for Sheriff) and John Bell (Democrat running for Sheriff, not the NoVa House candidate). Not a word from any of the statewide candidates; they're probably not bothering since I voted in the Dem primary.

Is the current VA Beach Sheriff a Republican or Dem?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, this week I've received 7 campaign mailers. 5 were from Peter Schmidt (Democrat running for the House of Delegates, if you haven't been reading the thread), and 1 each were from Ken Stolle (Republican running for Sheriff) and John Bell (Democrat running for Sheriff, not the NoVa House candidate). Not a word from any of the statewide candidates; they're probably not bothering since I voted in the Dem primary.

Is the current VA Beach Sheriff a Republican or Dem?

That would be Paul Lanteigne, a Republican -- he ran for an open House of Delegates seat here back in January, but lost the nomination to a hog farmer from Chesapeake. He would be a stellar candidate for the Republicans for, say, Congress, but isn't right-wing enough to win a primary here.

[Tender Branson]

YouGov/Polimetrix (internet poll):

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 40%

http://twitter.com/MysteryPollster