Kerry VS. McCain

[RosettaStoned]

In 2004 John Kerry received 59,028,444 votes. In 2008 John McCain received 57, 358,053 votes so far. All along I thought the loser of this election would perform better than the last one. Does this suprise anyone that Kerry did better than McCain did?

[BM]

Bush hatred > Obama hatred + a sh**tty campaign

[Nutmeg]

All along I thought the loser of this election would perform better than the last one. Does this suprise anyone that Kerry did better than McCain did?

As did I; it definitely surprises me.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Bush hatred > Obama hatred + a sh**tty campaign

Kerry's campaign was pretty awful, though perhaps not the utter disaster that was the McCain campaign.

[RJ]

First of all, Obama and Kerry on paper were/are essentially the same candidate. I'll probably be the only one you'll ever hear say this, but I liked Kerry better than Obama. Barack won me over during the campaign; I was ready to vote for Hillary during the primary until I saw more footage on Obama and Richardson(who I really liked) endorsed him.

Kerry would have won in 2008 and Obama would have lost in 2004. You could also flip Bush and McCain in the last 2 elections and gotten similar results, McCain I would figure outperforming Bush slightly in a given election. I don't think Kerry ran that bad of a campaign. He was dealt a bad hand with a nonfactor like Edwards as his running mate in addition to Iraq taking center stage. Biden proved to be more effective than Edwards. McCain also got a raw deal. I bet he was ready to kick Bush and Paulsen in the ass for that bailout business right in the middle of campaign season along with the fact that the electorate was mad as hell at the GOP.

[panda_priest]

First of all, Obama and Kerry on paper were/are essentially the same candidate. I'll probably be the only one you'll ever hear say this, but I liked Kerry better than Obama. Barack won me over during the campaign; I was ready to vote for Hillary during the primary until I saw more footage on Obama and Richardson(who I really liked) endorsed him.

Kerry would have won in 2008 and Obama would have lost in 2004. You could also flip Bush and McCain in the last 2 elections and gotten similar results, McCain I would figure outperforming Bush slightly in a given election. I don't think Kerry ran that bad of a campaign. He was dealt a bad hand with a nonfactor like Edwards as his running mate in addition to Iraq taking center stage. Biden proved to be more effective than Edwards. McCain also got a raw deal. I bet he was ready to kick Bush and Paulsen in the ass for that bailout business right in the middle of campaign season along with the fact that the electorate was mad as hell at the GOP.

So did I, strangely.

[MR maverick]

Kerry = Loser

McCain = old

[King]

I took the individual state totals of both Kerry in 04 and McCain in 08 and made this map.

Kerry wins the popular vote 51% to 49% and EV count 293-245, but it produces one of the most polarized electoral maps ever as most states give 60% in support of their candidate with Colorado, Nevada and Ohio being the only three states decided by less than 4 points.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I took the individual state totals of both Kerry in 04 and McCain in 08 and made this map.

Kerry wins the popular vote 51% to 49% and EV count 293-245, but it produces one of the most partisan electoral maps ever as most states give 60% in support of their candidate with Colorado, Nevada and Ohio being the only three states decided by less than 4 points.

     Interesting map. It's funny that McCain got more votes out of the Deep South than Bush did, despite getting fewer overall votes.

[MR maverick]

I took the individual state totals of both Kerry in 04 and McCain in 08 and made this map.

Kerry wins the popular vote 51% to 49% and EV count 293-245, but it produces one of the most partisan electoral maps ever as most states give 60% in support of their candidate with Colorado, Nevada and Ohio being the only three states decided by less than 4 points.

     Interesting map. It's funny that McCain got more votes out of the Deep South than Bush did, despite getting fewer overall votes.

[/b]




Anti- black man votes mostly.  In 2004 race was not on peoples minds.

[King]

I took the individual state totals of both Kerry in 04 and McCain in 08 and made this map.

Kerry wins the popular vote 51% to 49% and EV count 293-245, but it produces one of the most partisan electoral maps ever as most states give 60% in support of their candidate with Colorado, Nevada and Ohio being the only three states decided by less than 4 points.

     Interesting map. It's funny that McCain got more votes out of the Deep South than Bush did, despite getting fewer overall votes.

I find it interesting that Kerry lost Nevada by only 2 points and McCain lost Nevada by a large 12 point margin, but head-to-head vote totals McCain narrowly manages to win the state.

[Nym90]

I took the individual state totals of both Kerry in 04 and McCain in 08 and made this map.

Kerry wins the popular vote 51% to 49% and EV count 293-245, but it produces one of the most polarized electoral maps ever as most states give 60% in support of their candidate with Colorado, Nevada and Ohio being the only three states decided by less than 4 points.

If Kerry had been the nominee this year that may well have been the map, actually.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If I would've been told that in 2004, it'd surprise me.  In August of 2008 onward, it wouldn't surprise me.

[Eraserhead]

I took the individual state totals of both Kerry in 04 and McCain in 08 and made this map.

Kerry wins the popular vote 51% to 49% and EV count 293-245, but it produces one of the most polarized electoral maps ever as most states give 60% in support of their candidate with Colorado, Nevada and Ohio being the only three states decided by less than 4 points.

If Kerry had been the nominee this year that may well have been the map, actually.

I'm confident Kerry would have figured out a way to lose.

[Nutmeg]

Top popular vote totals:

1. Obama (D)   2008   65,834,626 (and counting)
2. Bush (R)   2004   62,040,610
3. Kerry (D)   2004   59,028,439
4. McCain (R)   2008   57,709,772 (and counting)
5. Reagan (R)   1984   54,455,472

[dunn]

Top popular vote totals:

1. Obama (D)   2008   65,834,626 (and counting)
2. Bush (R)   2004   62,040,610
3. Kerry (D)   2004   59,028,439
4. McCain (R)   2008   57,709,772 (and counting)
5. Reagan (R)   1984   54,455,472

The nation is growing you know, of course the turnout this year was nice, but the real list you should look at is that:

1. Lyndon Johnson (D)        1964  61.05%
2. Franklin Roosevelt (D)    1936   60.80%
3. Richard Nixon (R)             1972 60.67%
4. Warren Harding (R)        1920   60.32%
5. Ronald Reagan (R)          1984  58.77%
6. Herbert Hoover (R)         1928   58.21%
7. Franklin Roosevelt (D)    1932   57.41%
8. Dwight Eisenhower (R)  1956    57.37%
9. Theodore Roosevelt (R) 1904    56.42%
10.Andrew Jackson (D)      1828     55.93%
11.Ulysses Grant  (R)         1872     55.58%
12.Dwight Eisenhower (R)  1952    55.18%
13.Abraham Lincoln (R)      1864     55.03%
14.Andrew Jackson (D)      1832     54.74%
15.Franklin Roosevelt (D)   1940    54.74%
16.Calvin Coolidge (R)        1924    54.04%
17.Franklin Roosevelt (D)    1944   53.39%
18.George Bush (R)             1988   53.37%
19.William H. Harrison (W) 1840     52.87%
20.Ulysses Grant  (R)         1868     52.66%
21.Barack Obama (D)          2008   52.50%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

McCain could easy get more votes than Kerry. California alone has about 2.7 million unprocessed ballots.

[Jeff from NC]

First of all, Obama and Kerry on paper were/are essentially the same candidate. I'll probably be the only one you'll ever hear say this, but I liked Kerry better than Obama. Barack won me over during the campaign; I was ready to vote for Hillary during the primary until I saw more footage on Obama and Richardson(who I really liked) endorsed him.

Kerry would have won in 2008 and Obama would have lost in 2004. You could also flip Bush and McCain in the last 2 elections and gotten similar results, McCain I would figure outperforming Bush slightly in a given election. I don't think Kerry ran that bad of a campaign. He was dealt a bad hand with a nonfactor like Edwards as his running mate in addition to Iraq taking center stage. Biden proved to be more effective than Edwards. McCain also got a raw deal. I bet he was ready to kick Bush and Paulsen in the ass for that bailout business right in the middle of campaign season along with the fact that the electorate was mad as hell at the GOP.

So did I, strangely.

Me three.  I like Obama just fine, but I would feel more comfortable with someone with Kerry's experience.

[Nutmeg]

The nation is growing you know, of course the turnout this year was nice, but the real list you should look at is that:

What are those figures - turnout as a percentage of what?  I imagine non-citizens and felon populations are higher than ever, although how is earlier disenfranchisement taken into account?

[JohnCA246]

Don't forget that the enfranchisement of folks 18-21 account for some of the lower turnout. 

[Boris]

I'll probably be the only one you'll ever hear say this, but I liked Kerry better than Obama.

FF

[King]

The nation is growing you know, of course the turnout this year was nice, but the real list you should look at is that:

What are those figures - turnout as a percentage of what?  I imagine non-citizens and felon populations are higher than ever, although how is earlier disenfranchisement taken into account?

That's just the percentage of popular vote each candidate got.

[pragmatic liberal]

First of all, Obama and Kerry on paper were/are essentially the same candidate. I'll probably be the only one you'll ever hear say this, but I liked Kerry better than Obama. Barack won me over during the campaign; I was ready to vote for Hillary during the primary until I saw more footage on Obama and Richardson(who I really liked) endorsed him.

Kerry would have won in 2008 and Obama would have lost in 2004. You could also flip Bush and McCain in the last 2 elections and gotten similar results, McCain I would figure outperforming Bush slightly in a given election. I don't think Kerry ran that bad of a campaign. He was dealt a bad hand with a nonfactor like Edwards as his running mate in addition to Iraq taking center stage. Biden proved to be more effective than Edwards. McCain also got a raw deal. I bet he was ready to kick Bush and Paulsen in the ass for that bailout business right in the middle of campaign season along with the fact that the electorate was mad as hell at the GOP.

So did I, strangely.

Me three.  I like Obama just fine, but I would feel more comfortable with someone with Kerry's experience.

I somewhat agree too. Where I disagree is that I do like Obama better than Kerry. And Obama strikes me as a better manager and overall better politician.

But I liked Kerry just fine. And I think a lot of the post-2004 kvetching is a little unfair. I don't think Kerry's '04 campaign was anywhere NEAR as bad as people claim it was in hindsight. Yes, there was infighting in the campaign, especially around August and September of '04 -- guess what? That's typical in a losing campaign -- when a campaign is losing, people lose their cool and start fighting about what to do. Remember that the infighting stories stopped in October -- when Kerry beat Bush in the debates, closed the gap and seemed to have the momentum.

I wouldn't laud Kerry's campaign -- they made several mistakes. But overall, they did pretty well considering the climate. Yes, had they done a few things differently they could have won. But they also could have lost a lot worse. In the end, losing the PV by 2.5% and losing the electoral vote by one state (Ohio) isn't a damning outcome against a wartime incumbent president with a 50% approval rating in an okay economy.

And I also agree that there's a lot more similarity between Kerry and Obama than people realize. The two are virtually identical when it comes to ideology, and they have very similar political interests, both of them being primarily interested in foreign policy and multilateralism. They also have similar challenges -- both sort of fit the "wine-track" stereotype and aren't natural glad-handling types and are far more cerebral and detached. I remember one commentator on a blog I read commented in August that sometimes Obama actually seems like a better-speaker-John Kerry.

As for the subject of this thread: yes, Kerry would have won in this climate, although it would have been narrower. And it sort of depends on how he won the nomination -- is he a repeat nominee or a first-time nominee? A repeat nomination would likely have resulted in a low turnout election with depressed enthusiasm.

[dunn]

The nation is growing you know, of course the turnout this year was nice, but the real list you should look at is that:

What are those figures - turnout as a percentage of what?  I imagine non-citizens and felon populations are higher than ever, although how is earlier disenfranchisement taken into account?

That's just the percentage of popular vote each candidate got.

Exectly

[Nutmeg]

The nation is growing you know, of course the turnout this year was nice, but the real list you should look at is that:

What are those figures - turnout as a percentage of what?  I imagine non-citizens and felon populations are higher than ever, although how is earlier disenfranchisement taken into account?

That's just the percentage of popular vote each candidate got.

Exectly

Oh, I see.  But how is that more relevant than raw vote figures?  Peculiarities of the campaign and, especially, weak opponents (1964, for example) really affect the margins.

The original thought exercise in this topic was to consider 2008 vote totals as compared to 2004 vote totals, to consider that McCain received fewer votes than Kerry even as the population grew slightly.