How would have Hillary done?

[Lunar]

I imagine the map would look something like this:

I agree, except maybe flipping NV (she has popularity with Hispanics and that state is now solidly Democratic).  I don't think Hillary would win MO either.

But if she ran a poor campaign, McCain would be running with Pawlenty or something and could have been more competitive in the upper Midwest, Florida, and/or even Oregon.  We have to assume Hillary wouldn't win by as large of a margin

[Lunar]

Didn't the early head-to-head hypotheticals have her winning Kentucky as well, or am I going crazy?

Yeah if McCain never called Hillary a liberal (like what happened during the Dem. primary) she might actually win Kentucky.  Good luck with that.

[Lunar]

But if she ran a poor campaign, McCain would be running with Pawlenty or something and could have been more competitive in the upper Midwest, Florida, and/or even Oregon.  We have to assume Hillary wouldn't win by as large of a margin

Florida?  I see no possible circumstance where she would be a weaker candidate in that state than Obama.  The state was an excellent demographic fit for her and while they were both in the race she ran much stronger there against McCain than Obama did.  Obama didn't inch ahead in that state until the economic crisis broke; Hillary was leading there back in April and May.  She would have locked up that state easily once the crisis broke.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_clinton-417.html

She would be a stronger candidate than Obama in Florida.

I clearly said "if she ran a worse campaign"  and "wouldn't win by as large of a margin [as 6%]"- implying that she got bogged down more than Obama did overall   Like if the Republicans ran ads against her accusing a molested child of making up her story (this is truthy from her attorney days) and it stuck or something.

[Lunar]

People who think Kentucky would be a tossup = lol.

"Secretly liberal" Hillary from New York who never had an ad or narrative against her accusing her of being liberal does not equal Centrist Bill Clinton with  on the sidelines.

C'mon, she would lose a lot of her blue-collar roots as soon as McCain ran a single ad against her.

[Lunar]

Missouri = no way.  Nevada = easy dem with solid Hispanic support as we just learned.