How would have Hillary done?

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I imagine the map would look something like this:

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I suppose Nevada might have gone Clinton. I doubt her GOTV effort would have been nearly as impressive, though she did somehow manage to win the caucus there (her only one, so perhaps the Clinton campaign in Nevada was one of her best actually? Who knows). If she did win it, however, I doubt it would've been by more than two or three points. McCain would be much stronger in Nevada against Hillary Clinton.

As for Missouri, I think Clinton would have been a stronger candidate there and considering Obama barely lost it, I think she would've had a >50% chance of taking it. The real question for Missouri is whether low black turn-out in the cities would counter Clinton doing better among rural whites (and thus keeping the state for McCain). I have a feeling she would win it by 1 or 2 points, though.

Clinton would definitely win the West Coast and Upper Midwest with smaller margins than Obama did, but considering how decisively he won them all she would've taken them anyway. Iowa would be the closest and might be down to a 1-2% Clinton victory. So while she would overall probably have a smaller PV margin, I think she would only do 10-20 electoral votes worse than Obama did.