How would have Hillary done?

[Ogre Mage]

bgwah's map looks right except I think Hillary would have won Nevada as well.  She won the primary there and had very strong support from the Hispanic community.  Throughout the campaign she and Obama polled about as equally well against McCain in Nevada.   Once the economic crisis broke the state would have moved in her favor, just as it did for Barack.  She was the first Presidential candidate to grasp the seriousness of the mortgage crisis, which is a huge issue in Nevada.  Plus, she has a clear record of opposing Yucca Mountain.  She would have won.

[Ogre Mage]

But if she ran a poor campaign, McCain would be running with Pawlenty or something and could have been more competitive in the upper Midwest, Florida, and/or even Oregon.  We have to assume Hillary wouldn't win by as large of a margin

Florida?  I see no possible circumstance where she would be a weaker candidate in that state than Obama.  The state was an excellent demographic fit for her (seniors, Jews, Hispanics, transplanted New Yorkers) and while they were both in the race she ran much stronger there against McCain than Obama did.  Obama didn't inch ahead in that state until the economic crisis broke; Hillary was leading there back in April and May.  Her longstanding emphasis on the home foreclosure crisis would have played well there too.  She would have locked up that state easily once the crisis broke.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_clinton-417.html

[Ogre Mage]

I think she would have won all the Obama states along with MO, MT, AK, WV and maybe KY.

You actually mean AR (Arkansas), right?   AK is the abbreviation for Alaska.  There is no chance that Hillary would have won there.  She would not have won Montana either.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mt/montana_mccain_vs_clinton-613.html

[Ogre Mage]

As for Missouri, I think Clinton would have been a stronger candidate there and considering Obama barely lost it, I think she would've had a >50% chance of taking it. The real question for Missouri is whether low black turn-out in the cities would counter Clinton doing better among rural whites (and thus keeping the state for McCain). I have a feeling she would win it by 1 or 2 points, though.

I agree.  My guess is that Clinton would have employed a 2006 McCaskill-like strategy of campaigning out in the exurban and rural areas to cut into McCain's base.  It would not have been difficult for her to down a shot and then bang the drum against the McCain-Bush economic policies in front of these folks.  In this climate I think Clinton's turnout in the cities would have been fine.