Assume economic events, Olympics and Russia-Georgia still occur.
Few things you have to consider:
1) Hillary winning would have disenfranchised african americans, and that would have made african american turnout low.
2) Ditto for youth vote
3) McCain wouldn't have chosen Palin. Probably would have chosen Lieberman, or Giuliani.
4) Hillary performed well in NH, which should have overcome any sort of "McCain possibility".
5) Hillary is from Scranton, so she would have had no problem winning the PA vote.
6) McCain knowing PA probably wasn't in play would have spent more time elsewhere.
With that said...
ME, NH, VT, RI, CT, MA, NY, NJ, PA, DE, DC, MD, MI, OH, IL, MN, WI would have been in the bag for her.
CA, OR, WA and HI are also in the bag.
Arkansas would have been a toss-up. Might have actually gone to Hillary. I'd say it would have given Bill's influence.
Florida i would give to Hillary too.
New Mexico would probably come down to the wire and gone to Hillary.
All McCain states minus Arkansas would have been redder, including Missouri. Thats 165.
Because of the disenfranchised african american vote, North Carolina would have gone to McCain easily.
African American vote I think had some play in VA, so I'd give VA to McCain.
I would give NV and IN to McCain...
I would also give CO and IA to McCain.
That gives me 310-228.
