2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

N-TV Livestream:

http://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/livestream/

[Tender Branson]

Getting nervous, Exit Polls in 1 minute !

[freek]

ARD exit poll:

Majority for CDU/CSU/FDP.

[Hash]

Please, all results here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=102862.0

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Temporary locking to prevent duplication - thread will be re-opened in a few hours.

Edit: aaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd open again. But please post results stuff in 'tuther thread.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Frank-Walter Steinmeier wants to become opposition leader in the Bundestag now. Let's see if the SPD lets him. Uncertain is the future of SPD chairman Franz Müntefering. Perhaps more this afternoon or evening.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Just...

Just what?

The people in the silly costumes next to the CSU poster...

Bavarians always dress like that.

No more necessarily an hot topic now, but, hmm, yes, I remember several Bavarians in 'costumes' like that, even in München, assuming it was their real clothes, and during the 3 weeks I spent in Bavaria, I regularly saw such guys, just guys, no women iirc.

[minionofmidas]

Frank-Walter Steinmeier wants to become opposition leader in the Bundestag now. Let's see if the SPD lets him. Uncertain is the future of SPD chairman Franz Müntefering. Perhaps more this afternoon or evening.

Fering has hinted at retirement.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems that Steinmeier will become the SPD leader in the Bundestag. However, there's some growing resistance that he also becomes Müntefering's successor as party chairman. As possible chairmen are mentioned (more or less in order of likelihood): Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit, Minister for the Environment Sigmar Gabriel, Minister of Labour Olaf Scholz, SPD vice chairwoman Andrea Nahles.

Berlin's SPD has even called for the complete resignation of the current party leadership.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD secretary-general Hubertus Heil has resigned.

There's also incresing speculation that Sigmar Gabriel could become the next SPD chairman. This is based on the fact that Klaus Wowereit is unacceptable to the party's right and that Frank-Walter Steinmeier has become unacceptable to the party's left now.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New speculations about the SPD. Most possible is that Sigmar Gabriel will be new chairman of the SPD. The mayor of Berlin Klaus Wowereit will be vice-chairman. Successor of Hubertus Heil as secretary-general could be Andea Nahles. She is an important representative of the left wing. Steinmeier could be opposition leader in the parlament.

The SPD must make a new begin and when they not change their politics it will be the end of them. Only a little bit more left wing politics can help the SPD to survive. Should they change nothing and make the same like in the Schröder or grand coalition times, then the Left with Oskar Lafontaine will be stronger and stronger. Then we can say RIP SPD

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

New speculations about the SPD. Most possible is that Sigmar Gabriel will be new chairman of the SPD. The mayor of Berlin Klaus Wowereit will be vice-chairman. Successor of Hubertus Heil as secretary-general could be Andea Nahles. She is an important representative of the left wing. Steinmeier could be opposition leader in the parlament.

The SPD must make a new begin and when they not change their politics it will be the end of them. Only a little bit more left wing politics can help the SPD to survive. Should they change nothing and make the same like in the Schröder or grand coalition times, then the Left with Oskar Lafontaine will be stronger and stronger. Then we can say RIP SPD

It seems to me a lot like some things we could have said about the French PS, but, and according to the French experience I think we shouldn't underestimate the abilities of big parties to adapt themselves in order to stay ahead, especially given the fact that these big parties are far less fussy on ideologies than smaller radical parties.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sigmar Gabriel:

Minister-president of Lower Saxony from 1999 to 2003, the SPD's sometimes rediculed "representative for pop culture" from 2003 to 2005 (under the alias of "Siggi Pop") , Federal minister for the environment since 2005.

Ideologically somewhere right in the the center of the SPD, therefore acceptable for all wings. Pragmatist who's able and willing to work with everyone if necessary: CDU, FDP or even the Left Party (emphasis on the last party with regards to 2013). All of this makes him something of an opportunist too, I guess.

Generally more aggressive and ambitious than Steinmeier. Served as the SPD's attack dog on nuclear energy during the campaign. A role which he fulfilled so good that he's not blamed for the SPD's defeat now.

If he indeed becomes party chairman, he's a possible (if not the likely) chancellor candidate for 2013... unless he screws up at some point during the next four years (and we had many SPD chairmen who screwed it up in recent years). Next in line: Klaus Wowereit, provided that resistance of the SPD's right fades.

Oh yes, Steinmeier was elected the leader of the SPD's parliamentary group in the Bundestag today. I wonder when Gabriel will kick him out and take over Steinmeier's new position as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Then we can say RIP SPD

Perversely this election disaster has probably prevented that. Don't think that anything they might do now* can be much worse than another few years in a Grand Coalition.

*Er... almost anyway. As a supporter of another SI party I'm well aware of how astonishingly stupid the leadership of such parties and of various factions within such parties are capable of being at times...

[minionofmidas]

Not my foreign minister.

[Tender Branson]

Not my foreign minister.

Ahahaha.

[Tender Branson]

Compare with our foreign minister:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ub1MLvqVYdQ

*too-tausend-nein* and *too-tausend-tenn*

[minionofmidas]

Compare with our foreign minister:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ub1MLvqVYdQ

*too-tausend-nein* and *too-tausend-tenn*

First impression is, of course "accent's the same but at least he knows what he's saying". But of course that's hilariously unfair as he's reading from a manuscript while Westerwelle was trying (and failing) to unscriptedly answer a question.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not my foreign minister.

He's pretty "dynamic" though.

[minionofmidas]

Saar Greens vote to open full coalition talks with CDU and FDP.

Thuringian SPD leadership voted to open full coalition talks with the CDU a week ago or so, Thuringian SPD has descended into civil war immediately afterwards. No matter what coalition comes out, whoever leads the SPD at the end of this will be fatally weak yet also required to form any government at all.

In Brandenburg, the smart money seems to be on a coalition with the Left. If we're being offered even odds, that is. They want to decide soon.

[minionofmidas]

Brandenburg SPD wants RedRed.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Saar Greens vote to open full coalition talks with CDU and FDP.

Thuringian SPD leadership voted to open full coalition talks with the CDU a week ago or so, Thuringian SPD has descended into civil war immediately afterwards. No matter what coalition comes out, whoever leads the SPD at the end of this will be fatally weak yet also required to form any government at all.

In Brandenburg, the smart money seems to be on a coalition with the Left. If we're being offered even odds, that is. They want to decide soon.

I will follow with interest the coalition negotiations in Saarland. The Greens need to be careful, not that it look they stand as a pure raiser majority of CDU-FDP. But they had only the choice between black-yellow-green and Oskar Lafontaine. Both aren't a good thing for Greens.

The Thüringen-SPD are idiots. In Thüringen was really the mood for a change there, but now they have ruined it. The SPD could have formed with the Left, a stable and good government, even without the top candidate of the Left Ramelow. For a decision in favor of a coalition with the CDU, they would have to do a membership survey and it should not be decided from above. Now we can say Good Bye Thüringen-SPD for a long time.

In Brandenburg it'll give a Red-Red coalition. I think the SPD there want to stop the raise of the Left. In the government they must make pragmatic politics and this isn't so easy like to oppose everthing. In Berlin it works and we will see in Brandenburg too.

[minionofmidas]

That's the one thing. The other, of course, is the state of the Brandenburg CDU. For a long time, the constant infighting somehow didn't impact government stability - Schönbohm was above the fray, and the votes were always there in the Landtag no matter how few CDU MPs were currently on speaking terms with each other - but no one knows what will be with Schönbohm retired now.

Both CDU and Left made a lot of promises to the Saar Greens. It looks as if Müller understands that Jamaica, to work, needs to be a modified Grand Coalition. Of course, he's just the man for it, too. The fact remains that the Saar Greens are a tiny club, always have been, and we'll see whether they'll be able to make their presence felt. Not in the Coalition talks (no worries there, it seems) but afterwards. They need to be remarkably visible to even stand a chance of being in the next Landtag, frankly. In the worst case, they're irrelevant for the next 20 years minimum. Of course, Ulrich's motives in pushing for a decision against redredgreen are rather suspect. He seems to be settling some very old - 20 years old - scores.

Thuringia will be fun to watch.

[minionofmidas]

It's *probably* just traditional Kubicki pantomime independence, but there are serious noises out of Schleswig-Holstein of the possibility of CDU and FDP failing to agree on a coalition.

[Hans-im-Glück]

It's *probably* just traditional Kubicki pantomime independence, but there are serious noises out of Schleswig-Holstein of the possibility of CDU and FDP failing to agree on a coalition.

This would be very funny , but I don't think this happen. Wolfgang Kubicki is a little maniac but he isn't stupid.