2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Franzl]

haha....great numbers.

[Franzl]

Can we please hold the federal election now?

[Franzl]

Bye Bye Schäfer-(whatever)!

[Franzl]

German Elections are weird.

indeed

curious though what exactly you mean.

[Franzl]

I'm becoming cautiously optimistic that we'll get the CDU/FDP majority....but in recent times at least, I like to keep my expectations low, considering how the CDU/CSU tends to be overestimated in the pre-election polls.

[Franzl]

New Hesse poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

CDU: 41%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 13%
The Left: 5%
Others: 3%

just give 1% from the Linke to the SPD, and I'll be in heaven.

[Franzl]

Lewis, what do you think about district votes in Darmstadt-Dieburg II?

I'd guess something like.....CDU +10%?

[Franzl]

I actually wanted to vote for the CDU woman for the district vote....but her "campaign ads" in the mail gave me a pretty good reason not to....

basically....vote for me because I'm not quite as bad as the SPD....

[Franzl]

Random question. Why is northern Hesse strongly SPD (overall)? I'd assume it's an industrialized area?

I assume all those safe CDU districts around Frankfurt are generally wealthy districts?

northern Hesse is also quite poor.

[Franzl]

oh Lord...56%.....looks like this one is pretty much over.

[Franzl]

Is there any way to get more detailed results within a "Gemeinde"?

[Franzl]

The matchup thing is presumably more a comment on Koch's personal unpopularity than much else.

57% disapprovals, according to the same poll.

Mind you, the SPD's are worse...

But I still don't see the cosmic justice in the FDP profitting. Come on people, if you don't like the Koch government nor the opposition, vote Far Right or Freie Wähler. Not that foaming-at-the-mouth Koch sidekick Hahn. Whose intransigence last year, of course, gave us these elections...

So you'd rather have people voting for the Nazis than the for FDP, all to punish then for not allowing Ypsilanti to reign supreme?

No, no. People who're totally fine with Koch should vote CDU or FDP (as if I care). I just don't see the argument for a "well Koch's an idiot but I don't want the left either, so I'm voting for the FDP" argument because, well, there isn't one given the positions and the leading personnel of the Hessian FDP.

Heh. So says a man who can't give a coherent answer on why he'll probably vote Green rather than Left this time...

I appreciate that, Lewis!

[Franzl]

Well, the polls have been open for the last 2 hours.

I just got back from voting.

I was still kind of undecided....but I stuck with my choice:

district vote: CDU
party list: FDP

[Franzl]

I actually wanted to vote for the CDU woman for the district vote....but her "campaign ads" in the mail gave me a pretty good reason not to....

basically....vote for me because I'm not quite as bad as the SPD....

Well, the polls have been open for the last 2 hours.

I just got back from voting.

I was still kind of undecided....but I stuck with my choice:

district vote: CDU
party list: FDP

That CDU-woman ?

http://www.silke-lautenschlaeger.de

Correct, that's her

[Franzl]

CDU - 43% 39%
SPD - 22% 25%
FPD - 14% 13%
Greens - 12% 13%
Left - 4%
Others - 5% 6%

is my prediction.

[Franzl]

What do you think about district votes in Darmstadt-Dieburg II?

I'd guess something like.....CDU +10%?

I'd guess the following:

Lautenschläger (CDU): 48% (+8)
Koch (SPD): 34% (-7)

Upon further reflection, and looking at past elections....I think you'll be closer in D-D II.

[Franzl]

Question: Is there any form of "Wahlkabine" for Hessen ?

I doubt it...the campaign was so short this year....and I'm not even sure if there was one last year.

Wahl-o-mat didn't do anything, I'm sure of that.

[Franzl]

Evil Lewis

[Franzl]

Can we go ahead and bring out the champagne?

[Franzl]

Something I was thinking about...since I split my votes between parties....how common is that really in Germany?

I would imagine most people give the same party both votes without thinking about the electoral system...but I could be wrong. What percentage of people, do you think, split their votes?

[Franzl]

How long 'till the polls close [qm]

closing in 45 minutes, at 6PM German time, 5PM British

[Franzl]

ARD exit poll:


CDU:   37.5%
SPD:    23.5%
FDP:    16.0%
Greens:    14.0%
Left:   5.1%

[Franzl]

ARD exit poll:

CDU:   37.5%

Bradley-Effect ?

I dunno why, but the CDU....in the last couple of elections....is always MUCH lower than expected.

[Franzl]

anyway....HOORAY!!!!

[Franzl]

still, even if the CDU gained a percent or two, it'd still be less than many expected.

I'm thrilled with the FDP result, though.