2008- Kerry/Bayh vs. Huckabee/Pawlenty

[RRusso1982]

In 2004, the Kerry/Edwards ticket wins Ohio, and edges out President Bush 50-49 in the popular vote and 272-266 in the Electoral College.  John Kerry takes office in 2005.  Iraq is still a disaster and Katrina is still a disaster on Kerry's watch.  In 2006, the Republicans win all the senate races they lost, except for Santorum, and pick up seats in NJ and MD.  In 2008, Kerry is running for reelection.  The week before the Democratic National Convention, the news about Vice President Edwards's affair comes out.  Edwards quits the ticket and President Kerry chooses Evan Bayh to replace him.  On the Republican ticket is former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and he chooses Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.  In the middle of President Kerry's reelection campaign, the financial meltdown happens.  What does the electoral map look like?

[perdedor]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

[phk]

I think Edwards affair was related to making videos for his presidential run and might not have occurred.

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

That map strangely, but predictably, gives me a boner.

Pretty accurate map.

[perdedor]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

That map strangely, but predictably, gives me a boner.

Pretty accurate map.

Well...that's more information than I needed.

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

That map strangely, but predictably, gives me a boner.

Pretty accurate map.

Well...that's more information than I needed.

If that was too much info ... Excuse my language and I apologize sir.

[Nixon in '80]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

[Nixon in '80]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

[Nixon in '80]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

[Nixon in '80]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

True, I also wonder how WA and OR would react in this scenario, as they were close for a very short amount of time in OTL.

[Nixon in '80]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

True, I also wonder how WA and OR would react in this scenario, as they were close for a very short amount of time in OTL.

I feel that Oregon and Washington's brief closeness in this election can be attributed to McCain's appeal to independents and his environmental record, both of which Huckabee lacks. These blue states go to Kerry.

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

True, I also wonder how WA and OR would react in this scenario, as they were close for a very short amount of time in OTL.

I feel that Oregon and Washington's brief closeness in this election can be attributed to McCain's appeal to independents and his environmental record, both of which Huckabee lacks. These blue states go to Kerry.

I see, so, is there anything else needed to be discussed?

[Nixon in '80]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

True, I also wonder how WA and OR would react in this scenario, as they were close for a very short amount of time in OTL.

I feel that Oregon and Washington's brief closeness in this election can be attributed to McCain's appeal to independents and his environmental record, both of which Huckabee lacks. These blue states go to Kerry.

I see, so, is there anything else needed to be discussed?

Well, if New Jersey does go to Huckabee, does Deleware?

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

True, I also wonder how WA and OR would react in this scenario, as they were close for a very short amount of time in OTL.

I feel that Oregon and Washington's brief closeness in this election can be attributed to McCain's appeal to independents and his environmental record, both of which Huckabee lacks. These blue states go to Kerry.

I see, so, is there anything else needed to be discussed?

Well, if New Jersey does go to Huckabee, does Deleware?

Maybe, but I am not completely sure. Are those 2 states similar in voting trend?

[Nixon in '80]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

True, I also wonder how WA and OR would react in this scenario, as they were close for a very short amount of time in OTL.

I feel that Oregon and Washington's brief closeness in this election can be attributed to McCain's appeal to independents and his environmental record, both of which Huckabee lacks. These blue states go to Kerry.

I see, so, is there anything else needed to be discussed?

Well, if New Jersey does go to Huckabee, does Deleware?

Maybe, but I am not completely sure. Are those 2 states similar in voting trend?

They've voted together since 1980, and had similar percentages in '04. DE and PA have voted together since '72. I have no reason to believe DE would vote for Huckabee, simply conjecture.

[Workers' Friend]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

True, I also wonder how WA and OR would react in this scenario, as they were close for a very short amount of time in OTL.

I feel that Oregon and Washington's brief closeness in this election can be attributed to McCain's appeal to independents and his environmental record, both of which Huckabee lacks. These blue states go to Kerry.

I see, so, is there anything else needed to be discussed?

Well, if New Jersey does go to Huckabee, does Deleware?

Maybe, but I am not completely sure. Are those 2 states similar in voting trend?

They've voted together since 1980, and had similar percentages in '04. DE and PA have voted together since '72. I have no reason to believe DE would vote for Huckabee, simply conjecture.

I guess that it is a good possibility then. What about Maryland?

[AndrewTX]

rly? srsly?

[Nixon in '80]

Something like that. Sounds like a pretty miserable first term for Kerry.

I would flip New Hampshire and Minnesota, but that's just me.

Minnesota should be fillped, but not New Hampshire, NH is too Libertine.

Generally I agree with you, the idea of NH voting for Huckabee is a stretch, but given the landslide proportions of this election, I think Huck would pull it out. Just my opinion.

True, it depends how truly sucky Kerry is. Also another question, if PA swings to Huckabee, is there a possibility that he also wins NJ? Those 2 states often vote the same way.

I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I know this friend from NJ called Uncle Mike, he says that wherever PA goes, NJ probably goes as well, he also said that was the same with NY, but with a lesser extent.

Well considering Michigan is going to Huckabee in this scenario, NJ would definitely be in contention. I think the real factor would be how the economic crisis would be perceived in this world, whether it would be blamed on Regan/Bush deregulation, failure of the Kerry administration to adequately regulate the financial sector, or if Kerry would be blamed simply because he was in office. My guess would be a mixture of all three, in which case Huckabee's campaign for "Governor of America" would definitely appeal to workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while New Jersey's combo of blue collar workers and New York commuters could really send the state either way. My gut says NJ would stay in Kerry's column, but I have of course been wrong in the past, and will continue to be.

True, I also wonder how WA and OR would react in this scenario, as they were close for a very short amount of time in OTL.

I feel that Oregon and Washington's brief closeness in this election can be attributed to McCain's appeal to independents and his environmental record, both of which Huckabee lacks. These blue states go to Kerry.

I see, so, is there anything else needed to be discussed?

Well, if New Jersey does go to Huckabee, does Deleware?

Maybe, but I am not completely sure. Are those 2 states similar in voting trend?

They've voted together since 1980, and had similar percentages in '04. DE and PA have voted together since '72. I have no reason to believe DE would vote for Huckabee, simply conjecture.

I guess that it is a good possibility then. What about Maryland?

I would put Maryland, Deleware, and New Jersey in Kerry's category... and in that order, if you catch my meaning.