Red/Blue State Map for 2012

[Marokai Backbeat]

Good, except you have the Virginia's wrong. WV is likely Rep, and VA is tossup. Oh yeah, and NV should be Lean D after the blowout this year.

Id also put South Carolina as Likely Republican.

[Nym90]

NE-1?

Also, if Obama has a wildly successful first term, expect above-average swings in the very places that swung against him in 2008 (part of that swing comes from people balking at the notion of a Black president and/or a president with an exotic background - things that people *might* have gotten used to in four years time. Then again, Obama also has the potential to fail really disastrously. Know the saying about having to be at least as good as the White guy *all the time*?) Expect relatively little improvement (beyond those created by demographic changes between here and four years out) in the places that swung most wildly towards him.


As to the redblue map for 2012... this averages out 2004 and 2008 results:

Interesting theory on the areas that swung against Obama swinging toward him in 2012. I've had similar thoughts and voiced them a time or two, but glad to see I'm not completely nuts.

Obviously far fewer than 15 percent of voters will think Obama is a Muslim come 2012. Many of those voters in Appalachia have no access to the internet and no cable or satellite TV, and since Obama had no campaign organization in their area whatsoever and ran no ads on local TV, even relatively politically savvy people in these areas would literally would know nothing about him other than what they might read in the regional newspaper (the editorial page of which probably was less than favorable towards him) or snippets they briefly saw on the local or national network news (in which they saw what he looked like, but didn't get much chance to hear him speak, a shortfall that will be remedied for better or worse over the course of the next 4 years).

[Daniel Z]

Dark Red: Safe Obama
Light Red: Lean Obama
Gray: Tossup
Light Blue: Lean GOP
Dark Blue: Safe GOP

[Nixon in '80]

Dark Red: Safe Obama
Light Red: Lean Obama
Gray: Tossup
Light Blue: Lean GOP
Dark Blue: Safe GOP

This is just about perfect, except I'd label MO as a tossup.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Agreed. I think Arizona is alot closer to a tossup than alot of people think, as well. Democrats probably would have carried the state handily if McCain wasn't on the ticket.

[Nixon in '80]

Agreed, I forgot about AZ.

[Marokai Backbeat]

[jamestroll]

Not everything will be like 2008 forever.

[Daniel Z]

Not everything will be like 2008 forever.

No, but it would be foolish not to take 2008 into account when drawing up a map for 2012.

[Holmes]

Not everything will be like 2008 forever.

That's why there are toss-ups and multiple maps.

Anyone have voter registration stats for Arizona?

[aaaa2222]

Assuming a moderately successful first term: (This is assuming Obama is the nominee of the Democrats, and the Republicans don't nominate a huge surprise candidate. )

Assuming a blowout first term:

A poor term:

[Lief 🗽]

Why would a moderately successful term result in a slimmer victory?

[aaaa2222]

Because there's less hostility against Bush and Republican policies.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

[aaaa2222]

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota were all democratic by more than four points above the national average. I would change them. Also, Texas should be red, it went Republican by 11 points. I don't care what the DNC says, that's staying red.

[Holmes]

Yeah, I'd have to agree. Besides, if you're giving Virginia safe dem, you'd might as well give safe dem to the states that went to Obama by way more than 6%.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Yeah, I'd have to agree. Besides, if you're giving Virginia safe dem, you'd might as well give safe dem to the states that went to Obama by way more than 6%.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota were all democratic by more than four points above the national average. I would change them. Also, Texas should be red, it went Republican by 11 points. I don't care what the DNC says, that's staying red.

[Psychic Octopus]

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota were all democratic by more than four points above the national average. I would change them. Also, Texas should be red, it went Republican by 11 points. I don't care what the DNC says, that's staying red.

Lol, best response ever.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Atlas' color scheme fails again.

[Mint]

Atlas' color scheme fails again.

I'll never understand why so many prefer it.

[Matt Damon™]

This color scheme owns. I like my democrats like I like my chile peppers, red and sizzling.

[Хahar 🤔]

Atlas' color scheme fails again.

No. Atlas scheme=win. It's like our personal secret code.

[Matt Damon™]

The national color code is irredeemably terrible.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Atlas' color scheme fails again.

I'll never understand why so many prefer it.

In every other Western Country, conservative parties are represented by blue while liberal and progressive parties are represented by Red. The problem was that in the aftermath of the 2000 election, the electoral map (which happened to use red for Republicans and blue for Democrats) was left on the screen for weeks, and commentators began to discuss "Red States" and "Blue States."