Odds that Trump runs in 2024 if he loses this year?

[catographer]

What’re the odds that if Trump loses re-election in 2020, that he will run in 2024 again Grover Cleveland-style?

[TML]

He would be more likely to do so if (1) he loses narrowly and (2) the Democratic winner is an establishment candidate.

[morgankingsley]

The man will probably be over politics by then. Plus rapid health decline by the year will hurt him. Plus the fact we don't even know if he will be alive by then. I would say no

[Nyssus]

The man will probably be over politics by then. Plus rapid health decline by the year will hurt him. Plus the fact we don't even know if he will be alive by then. I would say no

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The man will probably be over politics in jail by then. Plus rapid health decline by the year will hurt him. Plus the fact we don't even know if he will be alive by then. I would say no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Romney and Haley are subpar to Gavin Newsom and Joe Kennedy in 2028, and if Beto remakes his image as TX Gov of 2022, he will run in 2028

[MABA 2020]

What’re the odds that if Trump loses re-election in 2020, that he will run in 2024 again Grover Cleveland-style?

I suggested this last year, I think it's very possible

[Sir Mohamed]

The dude will be completely senile by 2024. I could see him running though, especially if 2020 is close. He might not even stop campaigning after his defeat.

But, as I've said before, would be hilarious to have him running against Sanders or Biden as sitting prez. An election between a 82/83 year old prez against a 78 year old former prez.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Very low.

[MABA 2020]

The dude will be completely senile by 2024.

And therefore the perfect candidate for Republicans

[Agonized-Statism]

Slim, but if he wanted the nomination, it would probably be his.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems would gladly take him in another 413-125 blowout

[dw93]

I think builds up a bunch of hype between Inauguration Day 2021 and Mid 2023 about a 2024 run only to not run and prop up Jr. or Ivanka instead.

[brucejoel99]

0% chance of him running, given how he didn't even wanna be President in the first place & now absolutely hates being President.

[morgankingsley]

0% chance of him running, given how he didn't even wanna be President in the first place & now absolutely hates being President.

I would partially agree with you. I think he did want to be president. But he does clearly hate the job, and he would probably not want to even consider coming back if he does lose. Plus all the other reasons I mentioned earlier.

[brucejoel99]

0% chance of him running, given how he didn't even wanna be President in the first place & now absolutely hates being President.

I would partially agree with you. I think he did want to be president. But he does clearly hate the job, and he would probably not want to even consider coming back if he does lose. Plus all the other reasons I mentioned earlier.

I'd have to vehemently disagree with the notion that "he did want to be president."

Someone who wants to be president doesn't refuse to give money to his own campaign & finally capitulate by giving a measly $10 million, far less than a candidate with legitimate aspirations would need; promise Melania that he wouldn't win in order to assuage her fears of leaving behind her lavish lifestyle; fall asleep during a lesson on the Constitution after having made it to only the 4th Amendment; not know who John Boehner was; promise Chris Christie his endorsement after his presumably inevitable dropout; promise Rupert Murdoch that he'd find a way to take a liberal stance on H1-B visas, despite his campaign promises, causing Murdoch to call him a "f**king idiot;" not enjoy his Inauguration & fight with Melania, who was on the verge of tears; try to limit his hours in the office to maintain his normal golfing schedule; & propose the most radical departure from governing & policy norms in several generations, while having few specific ideas about how to turn his themes & vitriol into actual policy.

Also, there was that time on Election Night when the unexpected trend (that Trump might actually win) seemed confirmed & Don Jr. told a friend that his father looked as if he'd seen a ghost while Melania was in tears, & not of joy.

So, yeah, I think there's more than enough evidence to prove that he didn't wanna be President.

[Kyng]

Very low, I think.

For most of the GOP establishment, and about half of the primary voters, Trump wasn't the candidate they wanted: he was the candidate they were stuck with. As of right now, these people are lining up behind Trump, simply because that's the only viable path to get their conservative policy agenda enacted. However, should Trump lose re-election, these people will turn back into active opponents: they'll want nothing to do with Trump and his brand after he lost them an eminently-winnable election.

Furthermore, Trump only won the primary in 2016 because he was bringing something new to the table, that the voters wanted, but none of the other candidates was offering. He won't have that luxury in 2024: most of the candidates will be '#MAGA' candidates to one degree or another. There will be a younger version of Trump who has emerged as the leader of that movement, or maybe several candidates vying for that position - but I expect Trump himself will be considered yesterday's news.

Besides, I suspect he prefers dishing out insults on Twitter anyway.

[Horsemask]

I think it is more likely that Ivanka runs