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February 28, 2020, 10:38:28 pm
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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  5 most likely people to become the 45th POTUS?
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Author Topic: 5 most likely people to become the 45th POTUS?  (Read 12021 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2008, 07:42:40 pm »

Obama has 0% chance of being unable to finish his term for whatever reason?
if obama does well why wouldnt a democrat win in '16?

I'm saying if Obama dies or otherwise become incapacitated, Biden will be the 45th POTUS - making him very likely, relative to any individual contender, to be that person.

biden will be too old to get the nod in '16

That's debatable, but Lunar's point is that Biden could become the 45th POTUS *before* 2016 if Obama dies or resigns.

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Matt Damon™
donut4mccain
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« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2008, 07:43:54 pm »

i assumed the 5 most likely people to become #45 excluded biden since he was obvious hence my response not including him
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2008, 07:47:04 pm »

Obama has 0% chance of being unable to finish his term for whatever reason?
if obama does well why wouldnt a democrat win in '16?

I'm saying if Obama dies or otherwise become incapacitated, Biden will be the 45th POTUS - making him very likely, relative to any individual contender, to be that person.

biden will be too old to get the nod in '16
He would be only a year older than McCain was this year, and the same age that Dole was in 1996His age very well could play a factor in his decision to run, or in his performance in the primaries, but I don't see why 73 automatically disqualifies you from running or winning a party's nomination.
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Lunar
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« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2008, 08:07:22 pm »

But that's irrelevant.

Ford counts as one of the 44 presidents we've had so far and it has nothing to do with the guy winning any election.
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President Prospero
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« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2008, 09:55:37 pm »

1.Sarah Palin
2.Bobby Jindal
3.Mark Warner (ugh)
4.Hillary Clinton
5.Mitt Romney
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #30 on: November 21, 2008, 10:27:17 pm »

1. Mitt Romney
2. Bobby Jindal
3. Brian Schwietzer
4. Joe Biden
5. Hillary Clinton




100. Mark Warner
101. Sarah Palin
102. Mike Huckabee
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paul718
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« Reply #31 on: November 21, 2008, 10:30:51 pm »

gop

1 palin
2 jindal
3 huckabee

democrats

1 mark warner
2 evan bayh
3 tim kaine
4 ?
5 ?

So you view the Repulicans as the Bible-thumping God party, and the Democrats as the Centrist swing-state party?

1.Sarah Palin
2.Bobby Jindal
3.Mark Warner (ugh)
4.Hillary Clinton
5.Mitt Romney

you serious?
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #32 on: November 21, 2008, 10:32:31 pm »

gop

1 palin
2 jindal
3 huckabee

democrats

1 mark warner
2 evan bayh
3 tim kaine
4 ?
5 ?

So you view the Repulicans as the Bible-thumping God party, and the Democrats as the Centrist swing-state party?

yes
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #33 on: November 21, 2008, 10:35:26 pm »

gop

1 palin
2 jindal
3 huckabee

democrats

1 mark warner
2 evan bayh
3 tim kaine
4 ?
5 ?

So you view the Repulicans as the Bible-thumping God party, and the Democrats as the Centrist swing-state party?

1.Sarah Palin
2.Bobby Jindal
3.Mark Warner (ugh)
4.Hillary Clinton
5.Mitt Romney

you serious?

I agree Palin and Huck are completely  unelectable. Mitt Romney will struggle but at least he could try to win over suburbs with a strong economic message and continued weak or unstable economy in 2012. Huck and Palin will be lucky to win 150 Electors on election night in 2012.
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paul718
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« Reply #34 on: November 21, 2008, 10:35:39 pm »

gop

1 palin
2 jindal
3 huckabee

democrats

1 mark warner
2 evan bayh
3 tim kaine
4 ?
5 ?

So you view the Repulicans as the Bible-thumping God party, and the Democrats as the Centrist swing-state party?

yes

Thank you for sharing your objective assessment with the forum.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #35 on: November 21, 2008, 10:53:34 pm »


Not a Mark Warner fan?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #36 on: November 21, 2008, 11:08:52 pm »


Seems there is now quite a lot of opposition to Warner. Sorry Ben. Now you know how us Romney people feel. Good Looking, competent former businessmen just don't do well. Maybe its all the anti-business sentiment in this country.
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izixs
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« Reply #37 on: November 21, 2008, 11:12:19 pm »

So we got sort of 3 ways the 45th president will become such: 1. Obama resigns/perishes in office (which as a supporter of his I'd like to avoid), 2. someone defeats Obama in 2012, 3. Obama wins in 2012 and someone wins in 2016 meaning the US has not been destroyed by aliens yet.

For 1, I don't actually see that as very likely. The secret service are much better these days than they were in decades past and they've kept Obama safe so far. I also don't see him being silly enough to get into a major scandal that would force resignation. And major health concerns are unlikely at his age.

So then for 2... From my perceptions, one of the reasons GWB was able to win in 2000 and 2004 was relying on people to vote on social issues and national security. As this year demonstrated, economic issues can trump social issues by far, and to a certain extent national security. In 4 years one of three things is likely to of happened with the economy. A. The economy has rebounded and happy days are back again (Obama seen as a good president so more likely to be re-elected baring any major issue foibles), B. The economy has kind of recovered by things are not easy still (Obama could be in trouble, but can easily depict the plan as not being complete and his opponent as wanting to turn the clock back to 2008/9 so slim advantage Obama but Obama could be crushed if the republican is seen as a more competant economic manager), C. The economy still sucks or worse (Obama likely to loose but only to someone not seen as reckless economically). The conditions where Obama looses then points towards a republican who is either seen as more capable of fixing the economy than Obama or Obama fixes the economy but really screws up another area of national policy. This would suggest either a pragmatic business centric republican or possibly a national security centric republican. Social issue centric republicans would probably flounder with the possible exception of a Huckabee like person giving the finger to the low taxes/no social programs crowd in the GOP and embracing Obamomics.

So 3. 2016 is a ways off. This means that either a young politician of other party (possibly someone we never heard of) is going to get it, or a well respected elder states-person is going to get it. If the Obama economy wins or looses is irrelevant as it will be a new slate of candidates which means new spin.


So what does this mean for my prediction?

Well as there's a huge universe of candidates out there, I think I'll play it safe and just do the roles a candidate of that ranking is most likely to of played. Fill in the name you think is most appropriate. I'll make a stab at them after this list.

1. Youngish up and coming Democrat
2. Youngish up and coming Republican
3. National security centric Republican
4. Competent nationally known Democrat
5. Economically sound centrist Republican

So who do I see filling the roles?

1. Paul of the Hodes
2. Pawlenty of the frozen north
3. David Patreaus (savior or Iraq?)
4. Kathleen Sebelius, prairie wanderer
5. Mittens of Romney


As for other possibilities...
8. Biden of the Joe's
10. Hillary Clinton, the Revenge
25. Sarah of Wasilla
35134. Freddy the Tomp's sons.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #38 on: November 21, 2008, 11:27:51 pm »


Dems
1. Warner
2. Biden
3. Schweitzer
4. Bayh

Gop
1. Romney
2. Jindal
3. Palin
4. Huckabee
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #39 on: November 21, 2008, 11:33:02 pm »

I'm a Warner Fan! Atlasians should have a Warner Fan Club!

(just floating the idea)
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #40 on: November 21, 2008, 11:58:57 pm »

I'm a Warner Fan! Atlasians should have a Warner Fan Club!

(just floating the idea)

As the forum's #1 Warner fan, I sanction this idea, and shall set up the thread shortly.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #41 on: November 22, 2008, 07:55:32 am »

DEM

1. Joe Biden

GOP

1. Bobby Jindal
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BM
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« Reply #42 on: November 22, 2008, 06:46:09 pm »

This forum alone is starting to make me hate Mark Warner. Tongue
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #43 on: November 22, 2008, 07:04:07 pm »


Seems there is now quite a lot of opposition to Warner. Sorry Ben. Now you know how us Romney people feel. Good Looking, competent former businessmen just don't do well. Maybe its all the anti-business sentiment in this country.

Yeah, but Warner was a much better Governor than Romney was, and is less evil.
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BM
BeccaM
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« Reply #44 on: November 22, 2008, 07:06:44 pm »

For some reason I don't think people would fawn over Warner as much if he had a different physical appearance.  He has that old school attractive politician look to him.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #45 on: November 22, 2008, 11:03:50 pm »

I'm sorry, but Warner's keynote speech made me want to go to sleep. I think he'll be a serious flop and will never become President.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #46 on: November 22, 2008, 11:24:22 pm »

I'm sorry, but Warner's keynote speech made me want to go to sleep. I think he'll be a serious flop and will never become President.

I loved the speech Tongue
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tonyreyes89
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« Reply #47 on: November 23, 2008, 01:01:38 am »

Top 5 Both Dem/Rep (No Order)

1. Joe Biden
2. Brian Schweitzer
3. Sarah Palin
4. Bobby Jindal
5. Hillary Clinton
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paul718
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« Reply #48 on: November 23, 2008, 01:57:22 am »

I'm sorry, but Warner's keynote speech made me want to go to sleep. I think he'll be a serious flop and will never become President.

I loved the speech Tongue

The best opinion I heard of the Warner DNC speech was that it was a "Warner for Senate" speech rather than "Obama for President". 

But I don't think it hurt him in any way.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #49 on: November 23, 2008, 07:59:21 pm »

I liked it, But I like Schweitzer's the best.  FLORIDA! STAND UP! MICHIGAN! STAND UP!
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