Discuss with maps!: County map requests for 2008 election results

[Sbane]

Maybe its just me, but I think the fact that San Fran has a neighborhood called "Tenderloin" is just too good. 

I'm also somewhat amazed to discover the that city even has any black people.  I figured they had successfully shoved them all into Oakland, where the rich, white, "tolerance police", liberals could safely look down upon them from a distance without threat to property values.

There's a ton of black people all over SF, although there are concentrations as the map illustrates. You conservatives really have this weird mental projection of San Francisco that is nothing close to the reality. If you are looking for rich people who are running away from blacks, you have to look elsewhere in the bay area.

[Alcon]

Maybe its just me, but I think the fact that San Fran has a neighborhood called "Tenderloin" is just too good. 

I'm also somewhat amazed to discover the that city even has any black people.  I figured they had successfully shoved them all into Oakland, where the rich, white, "tolerance police", liberals could safely look down upon them from a distance without threat to property values.

Sigh, san francisco is not majority latte liberal.

The major city that comes closest to this designation is Seattle.  And it's not majority.

[Meeker]

I know about where Milk's district was, but can anyone tell me where White's was?

[Alcon]

I know about where Milk's district was, but can anyone tell me where White's was?

Southeast SF -- Visitacion Valley, Crocker-Amazon, probably Excelsior, not sure about Bayview-Hunters Point.

The area where Prop. 8 passed (although for a different reason than it would have then)

[Meeker]

Oooh - could someone do a Pelosi/Sheehan map?

[RI]

Oooh - could someone do a Pelosi/Sheehan map?

Eh, the map wouldn't be that interesting...Pelosi won every precinct handily, never once dropping below 50% in the three person race, routinely ranging from 65%-75%. Sheehan managed the receive 34.92% in one precinct (holding Pelosi to a low of 53.97%) just to the south of Portrero Hill (The big 60% No precinct that barely touches the water). That was the only time she broke 30%.

[Alcon]

Realistic,

Where are the precinct results and the shapefile?  I can use my 1% margin coding preconfiguration file to do a Sheehan % map, which should be much more interesting maybe.

bgwah and I did some digging.  The Tenderloin and Museum of Art precincts both contain heavily African-American public housing projects.  Midtown Terrace also seems to have a good amount of public housing, although more multi-ethnic.  Chinese in San Francisco must be way socially conservative...Sunset also has a lot of 'em, although it just seems more socially traditional all-around.


In fact, looking at these patterns, the social liberalism of San Francisco (outside of Castro/Haight-Ashbury/Noe Valley/etc.) is really kind of overrated.

Here's a map worth comparing:

[RI]

Realistic,

Where are the precinct results and the shapefile?  I can use my 1% margin coding preconfiguration file to do a Sheehan % map, which should be much more interesting maybe.

For the precinct results: http://www.sfgov.org/site/uploadedfiles/elections/ElectionsArchives/2008/november/SOV_081104_temp.xls

For the shapefile: http://gispubweb.sfgov.org/website/sfshare/catalog/elect_precincts.zip

[Verily]

That primary map is really interesting. Especially the Mission District so strongly for Obama. My relatives' precincts around Bernal Heights all voted strongly No and strongly for Obama twice, no surprise.

[Sbane]

That primary map is weird, the mission district doesn't really make sense. Are those areas south of I-280 heavily hispanic? Or are they Asian?

[Verily]

That primary map is weird, the mission district doesn't really make sense. Are those areas south of I-280 heavily hispanic? Or are they Asian?

Right along the south side of 280 is heavily Hispanic (less so than the Mission District, though, mostly below 50% Hispanic). Further south right along the border is more white, the last remnants of Dan White's voters.

% Hispanic: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/57/Latino_sf1.gif

[Verily]

Doing San Francisco results is a piece of cake for me.  A full-city issue takes like five minutes.  Something like CD isn't that bad either.

Here's Sheehan by precinct.  This'd be a really pretty map, were it not for Sheehan's best precinct, which is tremendously ugly.



I have no idea why, but it then decided to become the Shapefile From Hell and make MapWindow no longer apply my custom themes.  It just had the default fill color.  wtf?  Sorry, no margin-based Prop 8 map.

Interesting pattern there, too. Why the strength in the Mission District, again? (Haight-Ashbury is no surprise.)

[Verily]

I know about where Milk's district was, but can anyone tell me where White's was?

Southeast SF -- Visitacion Valley, Crocker-Amazon, probably Excelsior, not sure about Bayview-Hunters Point.

The area where Prop. 8 passed (although for a different reason than it would have then)

Wikipedia has a map of the Supervisor Districts from the time:



Incidentally, Dan White's district number, 8, is now the district number for the Castro Harvey Milk was in District 5.

[Torie]

That primary map is weird, the mission district doesn't really make sense. Are those areas south of I-280 heavily hispanic? Or are they Asian?

That is where Senator PiT lives (i.e. south of I-280 in SF).  Ask him. I think it is lower middle class Anglo.

[RI]

I found an interesting map online from the 2004 election. It is a statewide precinct map of California. It was in a pdf....so I had to copy it.

Note: This is not a map of the 2004 election results per se, but rather an amalgamation of several different races, from the presidential election to several voter propositions that were used to determine a liberal/conservative score.

[Alcon]

That's a really cool map.  Is there a link to a methodology statement?

Here's 2004 by precinct for CA:

FairData2000

To get individual precinct results, click the Info button, click on the Precinct, and then click on the precinct number on the window that comes up.

[RI]

That's a really cool map.  Is there a link to a methodology statement?

Here's 2004 by precinct for CA:

FairData2000

To get individual precinct results, click the Info button, click on the Precinct, and then click on the precinct number on the window that comes up.

You can read the whole pdf here.

There is also some stuff on San Francisco in there.

[Verily]

That primary map is weird, the mission district doesn't really make sense. Are those areas south of I-280 heavily hispanic? Or are they Asian?

That is where Senator PiT lives (i.e. south of I-280 in SF).  Ask him. I think it is lower middle class Anglo.

Ah, here we go. Not Anglo, as you and I thought. Asian.

% Asian:

Very, very strong correlation with Clinton primary votes in SF (and also with support for Prop 8, although the black areas must be taken into consideration there). The only area where she was competitive but there were few Asians was in the Castro--no surprise. It looks like the Hispanics in SF loved Obama and apparently supported gay marriage. (Perhaps proximity of the Mission District and Castro geographically played a role in that.)

[Linus Van Pelt]

Keep in mind the Mission District is about a third non-Hispanic white, probably more in terms of voters (both for citizenship and many-children reasons), and they are broadly in the culture of what Alcon called "Castro/Haight-Ashbury/Noe Valley etc." In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if they were even more pro-Obama than whites in those three areas due to the age difference.

[RI]

Shasta County, CA Dem and Republican Primaries (just because)

link: http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/ShastaCountyCAprimaries.png

Mono County, CA General Election

[Alcon]

Shata County's so hard for me to read without the lakes and rivers in there...looks to me like Obama did well in downtown Redding, but lost it across the bridge in poor-sprawlland.  Also seems to have taken a beating in the stretch between downtown and Anderson.

Other than that, looks like Obama won the precinct that contains either the village of Shasta (how many of those are there?) or Shasta Lake City...and then some touristy/hippie mountain stuff in the northwest.  Is that about right?

Kind of odd how he did so well in downtown Redding and took a beating in Subdivision Central.  Maybe I mis-read the map horribly.

I think the most remarkable part of Mono County is how the transplant/service vote has totally transformed Lee Vining and especially Mammoth Lakes, while totally ignoring Bridgeport -- which I thought was becoming a hip backpacking area.  I think there's also military there?

[RI]

Shata County's so hard for me to read without the lakes and rivers in there...looks to me like Obama did well in downtown Redding, but lost it across the bridge in poor-sprawlland.  Also seems to have taken a beating in the stretch between downtown and Anderson.

Other than that, looks like Obama won the precinct that contains either the village of Shasta (how many of those are there?) or Shasta Lake City...and then some touristy/hippie mountain stuff in the northwest.  Is that about right?

Kind of odd how he did so well in downtown Redding and took a beating in Subdivision Central.  Maybe I mis-read the map horribly.

I think the most remarkable part of Mono County is how the transplant/service vote has totally transformed Lee Vining and especially Mammoth Lakes, while totally ignoring Bridgeport -- which I thought was becoming a hip backpacking area.  I think there's also military there?

I made a version of the Dem primary with the area's hydrography.

link: http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/ShastaCountyCADemPrimarywithwater.png

[Alcon]

Ahh, thank you!  That gels a lot better with my understanding of Redding.  Obama mostly in new subdivision-land, Clinton in old (and poorburb) old subdivision-land in East Redding, affectionately "Helltown."  Blue-collar downtown mostly Clinton, except for Brookline, the standard Nice Area.

Lake Shasta area is a bit surprisingly strong for Clinton, although admittedly I don't know who lives there, and the coloring of the westshore precinct suggests to me that these are low-vote precincts.  My guess is that's the same for the very-Obama Platina precinct in the southwest.  I forget where the topography gets farm-unfriendly, but I'm guessing Platina "proper" is pretty damn sparse.

For the record:  Redding is a horrible, terrible place.  Do not go there.

[Verily]

Keep in mind the Mission District is about a third non-Hispanic white, probably more in terms of voters (both for citizenship and many-children reasons), and they are broadly in the culture of what Alcon called "Castro/Haight-Ashbury/Noe Valley etc." In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if they were even more pro-Obama than whites in those three areas due to the age difference.

Yes, but in order to influence the Mission District so strongly, they would need to have been voting 80%+ Obama; not likely given that Obama didn't do that much better in Diamond Heights or Noe Valley. (Haight-Ashbury and the Castro are both a different story for the primary, but Diamond Heights and Noe Valley should be comparable.)

Same goes but more so for Prop 8 opposition, which would have been higher turnout given when it was held: Not a single precinct less than 70% against in all of the Mission District!

[jimrtex]

ftp://ftpgis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Under the /gis directory prec.zip has the shapefiles.

Is is feasible to do extracts of (counties) from a large file like that?  I think Texas has about 8000 precincts.

prec_dist.xls has the mapping of precincts to counties, and various districts congressional and legislative districts).

Under the /elections file there are results from elections up through the 2008 primaries, but nothing yet for the general.

This data may match up with vtd.zip shapefiles.  The Leg. Council I think is interested in a continuous set of boundaries, so adjust election results to old boundaries.  There may be census demographic data for the vtd shapefiles.

The counties will of course use the current precincts.  When I was doing stuff on the 2006 gubernatorial election, I ended up using data from the counties and the prec shapefiles, rather than the election results from the Leg. Council  and the vtd shapefiles.  This might be because I started with the county election results for Harris County, and would find strange results every so often where precincts had been renumbered.  Harris County has NO system to the numbering of precincts.  They were originally numbered sequentially.  But whenever a precinct was split, the new precinct would be given a number on the end of the list.  And then when precincts were merged numbers would get dropped, and then re-used.  Harris County went from around 650 precincts to over 1300 because of the evil Democratic gerrymanders of the 1990s.  It is back down to around 850.

You can get precinct data on most of the large county web sites, but it probably will require some massaging.