As I previously highlighted in another thread, the 2012 primary calendar rules the the RNC passed at the convention allow IA, NH, NV, and SC to vote as early as January 2012, but punish any other states that vote any earlier than *March*:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/rnc_rules_committee_endorses_c.phpHowever, the punishment only involves taking away half of an offending state's delegates, which probably isn't going to deter any states from moving up. After all, the GOP meted out the same 50% reduction to such early voting states as NH, MI, SC, and FL in 2008, and they were all still plenty influential.
So there's no real incentive to comply with the rules, and we're likely to get lots of frontloading again. I was wondering if anyone knows, if no additional legislative action is taken in any state (unrealistic, but it gives us a starting point), what will the 2012 primary calendar look like? In other words, what I'm asking is, when all those states moved up their primaries in 2008, did they all do so on a "permanent" basis (permanent until the law is changed), or did any of them pass legislation that only moved up the primary for just this one election cycle?
