2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/OGM federal elections poll:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Grüne: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

On April 29, the Wahlkabine will be online again with questions for the EU parliamentary elections. It will be in English for the first time ever.

http://www.wahlkabine.at

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS !

The first poll so far by IMAS for the battle of Vienna next year was released in today's "Krone".

If the Vienna state (city) elections were held today:

SPÖ: 42% (-7 compared with 2005)
FPÖ: 26% (+11)
ÖVP: 18% (-1)
Greens: 13% (-2)
BZÖ: 1% (nc)

Who Vienna voters want as their Mayor:

Incumbent Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ): 45%
Johannes Hahn (ÖVP): 13%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 10%
Maria Vassilakou (Greens): 5%
Neither/Other/Undecided: 27%

http://www.krone.at/krone/S150/object_id__143285/hxcms/index.html

That's a big blow for Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ) who wants to become mayor of Vienna, saying how rotten Vienna is under Mayor Häupl. Strache wants to deport criminal and unemployed foreigners from Vienna and install vigilante groups to patrol the streets of Vienna so they can stop criminal foreigners ...

2010 looks much like a 1996 re-run, allthough you should always add about 1-3% to the FPÖ's standing in the polls and subtract 1-3% from the SPÖ, because the FPÖ usually underpolls before the election and the SPÖ overpolls:

http://www.wien.gv.at/statistik/daten/pdf/grstimmenanteil.pdf

I think it's very unlikely that the Vienna-SPÖ will ever get below 35% and the FPÖ above 30%.

[Franzl]

Is it just me, or is it pretty damn frightening to see the ÖVP under the FPÖ?...

[Tender Branson]

Is it just me, or is it pretty damn frightening to see the ÖVP under the FPÖ?...

It is pretty damn frightening to see the Center-Right at 45% in the City ...

Anyway, new Profil/Karmasin parliamentary poll:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 31%
FPÖ: 20%
Grüne: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090516_OTS0004&ch=medien

Also: The Austrian Grand Coalition (SPÖVP) has agreed on introducing a Civil Union law in the fall, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2010.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090516_OTS0006&ch=politik

[Tender Branson]

A general overview of what's going on here. Sadly, the political debate in Austria prior to the EU elections is not about Europe, but about the increasing Anti-Semitism amongst Austrians:

Last week, five 14 to 16-year olds dressed as Nazis disrupted the liberation ceremony of the former KZ Ebensee in Upper Austria, shouting "Heil Hitler" at survivors of the camp and even shooting at them with softguns.

This led to an outcry of SPÖ, ÖVP and Green members, while H.C. Strache of the FPÖ played it down as "actions by silly boys".

But the problem is a deeper one: More stories surfaced, a class from Vienna recently travelled to Auschwitz and students attacked visitors there with nazi-slogans and a hotel owner in Tyrol refused to accept Jewish hotel guests. Then David Duke, the US-racist I met on Monday, was hiding in Salzburg after being thrown out of the Czech Republic.

Then a study was released that showed that almost 40% of 16-18 year olds voted for the Far-Right in last years parliamentary elections, far higher than the 28% they got among all voters. The SORA study indicated increasing distrust of youngsters with the established parties (SPÖVP) and an increasing need of a "Führer"-personality. They teenagers polled didn't think of the FPÖ as a far-right party anymore, but a mainstream party.

Then, yesterday, Strache was elected with 97.2% of all delegates for another term as FPÖ-leader at the convention in Linz. Strache also attacked Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl (Social Democrats) as incompetent. It's no secret that Strache wants to become mayor of Vienna. Then the FPÖ attacked lesbian Green MEP-candidate Ulrike Lunacek as a "feminst Kampflesbe (fight lesbian)", digging even deeper in the mudd.

Then in todays Krone tabloid, the FPÖ ran ads strongly opposing Turkey's and Israel's entry into the EU. They also wanted Ariel Muzicant, the president of the Austrian Jewish Council to step down, because he referred to FPÖ-General Secretary Herbert Kickl as Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi-propaganda minister.

Just a few hours ago, Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) launched a massive attack against Strache and his FPÖ, saying that "Strache is a hatepreacher and fearmonger. Strache is not an idol, Strache is a disgrace." He also said that more history and anti-fa education is necessary for Austrian students to avoid the incident that happened in Ebensee. "Ebensee is not a trivial offense" he said.

Also, foreign minister Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP) critizized Strache: "Strache is agitating people against each other. We have 400.000 Muslims in Austria and we don't need these kinds of prejudices."

http://derstandard.at/?url=/?id=1242316025494

...

Good, my opinion of Werner Faymann has just gone up quite a bit. The sad thing is that despite the attacks by the Left, we can expect Strache and the FPÖ to gain and not to lose in the coming months ...

[Franzl]

Austria is pretty f**ked....frankly. Those numbers scare me.

[Tender Branson]

Good, my opinion of Werner Faymann has just gone up quite a bit. The sad thing is that despite the attacks by the Left, we can expect Strache and the FPÖ to gain and not to lose in the coming months ...

The polls are following suit to affirm my point:

Latest OGM/News poll released today, conducted in the last few days among 800 Austrians:

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090519_OTS0169&ch=politik

[Tender Branson]

New fodder for the Rightwingers (FPÖ) after a group of Indians tried to kill each other in a Vienna temple after a visit by an Indian guru.

After the Muslims, Turks and the Israelis, the Rightwingers have now a new scapegoat: the Indians.

Only an hour after the news, the FPÖ blamed the SPÖ and Greens for the incident. Their multicultural policies would allow such incidents to take place.

http://www.euronews.net/2009/05/24/sikh-temple-feud-leaves-greater-thangreater-than-injured-in-austria/

[Tender Branson]

New poll for the September 20 Vorarlberg State Elections:

ÖVP: 47% (-8 compared with '04 elections)
FPÖ: 17% (+4)
SPÖ: 14% (-3)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 5% (+5)
Others: 5% (nc)

That means that the current ÖVP/FPÖ coalition in the westernmost Austrian state will continue.

[Kevinstat]

New poll for the September 20 Vorarlberg State Elections:

ÖVP: 47% (-8 compared with '04 elections)
FPÖ: 17% (+4)
SPÖ: 14% (-3)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 5% (+5)
Others: 5% (nc)

That means that the current ÖVP/FPÖ coalition in the westernmost Austrian state will continue.

Why did the ÖVP need a coalition partner in Voralburg if they won 55% of the vote in the last state election?  Did they fail to win a majority of seats (or was their majority narrower than their popular vote majority and narrow enough that a coalition partner was necessary for the government to have a reasonable hope of completing its term)?  Or did the coalition only after defections from the ÖVP brought them either under a majority or to a very narrow majority?

[Tender Branson]

New poll for the September 20 Vorarlberg State Elections:

ÖVP: 47% (-8 compared with '04 elections)
FPÖ: 17% (+4)
SPÖ: 14% (-3)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 5% (+5)
Others: 5% (nc)

That means that the current ÖVP/FPÖ coalition in the westernmost Austrian state will continue.

Why did the ÖVP need a coalition partner in Voralburg if they won 55% of the vote in the last state election?  Did they fail to win a majority of seats (or was their majority narrower than their popular vote majority and narrow enough that a coalition partner was necessary for the government to have a reasonable hope of completing its term)?  Or did the coalition only after defections from the ÖVP brought them either under a majority or to a very narrow majority?

Tradition and a good working climate I guess. The ÖVP would have had an absolute majority, but the FPÖ has been the junior coalition partner of the state ÖVP since at least 1974. Vorarlberg is the most right-wing state in Austria, the Center-Right has never gone below 60% since WW2 and now they are at 70% again.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Burgenland state elections poll (GMK, May 25-27):

SPÖ: 47% (-5)
ÖVP: 34% (-2)
FPÖ: 12% (+6)
Greens: 4% (-1)
BZÖ: 2% (+2)
FBL: 1% (+1)

Governor Hans Niessl (SPÖ) has a 73% approval rating.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are open in Austria and they will close at 5pm local time with Exit polls following suit.

It's very bad weather here. Cold, about 5-10°C and raining. Expect turnout to be somewhere around 30-40%, with heavy gains for FPÖ/BZÖ.

My predictions for Austria:

ÖVP: 27.2% (-5.5) - 5 seats
SPÖ: 26.6% (-6.7) - 4 seats
FPÖ: 17.8% (+11.5) - 3 seats
Martin: 14.2% (+0.2) - 2 seats
Greens: 7.9% (-5.0) - 2 seats
BZÖ: 5.6% (+5.6) - 1 seat
KPÖ: 0.5% (-0.3)
Julis: 0.2% (+0.2)

6.362.526 people are eligible to vote. I´ll vote for the Greens.

Official results will be released here at 10pm, when the polls are closed in all countries.

http://wahl09.bmi.gv.at

[Tender Branson]

At 10am, turnout in Vienna was 8.10% (2004: 8.17%)

Probably 30-35% final turnout for the city.

Turnout for Austria should then be 35-40%, probably more on the lower end.

[Tender Branson]

At 12:30, turnout in the state of Styria was 37.97% (-1.23%).

[Tender Branson]

42 of 96 cities in the state of Vorarlberg are already counted:

ÖVP: 54.7% (-4.7)
Martin: 17.0% (+2.4)
FPÖ: 8.6% (+1.8 )
Greens: 8.0% (-1.9)
SPÖ: 6.4% (-2.6)
BZÖ: 4.8% (+4.8 )
Others: 0.5%

http://www.vol.at/news/vorarlberg/artikel/starkes-martin-ergebnis-nach-wahlende-in-vorarlberg/cn/news-20090607-01475368

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Vienna at 27% (2pm).

That's 1% higher than in 2004.

[Tender Branson]

Austria Exit Poll:

ÖVP: 29.9%
SPÖ: 23.4%
Martin: 18.2%
FPÖ: 13.0%
Greens: 9.4%
BZÖ: 4.8%

[Tender Branson]

2nd SORA Exit Poll:

ÖVP: 29.6% (-3.1)
SPÖ: 23.7% (-9.6)
Martin: 18.0% (+4.0)
FPÖ: 13.4% (+7.1)
Greens: 9.5% (-3.4)
BZÖ: 4.7% (+4.7)
Others: 1.1% (+0.3)

ÖVP: 6 seats (nc)
SPÖ: 5 seats (-2)
Martin: 3 seats (+1)
FPÖ: 2 seats (+1)
Greens: 1 seat (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Worst federal result for the Social Democrats since WW2.

[Franzl]

Those numbers are pretty good.

[Tender Branson]

Those numbers are pretty good.

Yes. Good to see that the Far-Right failed.

Btw, turnout was 42% (no change compared with 2004).

[Tender Branson]

Updated Exit Poll and Seat Projection by SORA:





Results of the 9 Austrian States:



Party majority in districts

[Tender Branson]

MEP Herbert Bösch (SPÖ) calls for Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) to resign, after the SPÖ lost almost 10% and got the worst result since WW2.

Wow !

Meanwhile, turnout was 42.42% (with all votes except the postal votes counted), compared with 42.43% in 2004. Once the postal votes are counted, turnout will have increased compared with 2004, making Austria one of the few countries where turnout did not drop further.

[Tender Branson]

The final Austrian result (except postal votes) for every state, electoral district, district and city in PDF and Excel - if anyone is interested in making maps:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2009/files/Ergebnis_V.pdf

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2009/files/Ergebnis_V.zip