2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[minionofmidas]

Lol. Salzburg:

    Grüne      226
      
-32    SPÖ    
      
-159    BZÖ    
      
-172    FPÖ    
      
-223    ÖVP    

Maybe I was in a confrontational mood. Didn't do the other one.

[Tender Branson]

I took the Wahlkabinen-Questions as well and my results are quite similar to both of yours, only that the other parties did not have a "minus" in front of them ...

BTW: The Green Party convention is resuming today and lesbian MP Ulrike Lunacek defeated MEP Johannes Voggenhuber for front-runner in the June Euro-Parliament-Elections, by 55%-45%. After that, Voggenhuber declared that he'll retire from politics. The second place in the Green EU list was won by current MEP Eva Lichtenberger, the 3rd by Monika Vana (Green Council Member in Vienna).

Eva Glawischnig meanwhile was elected Austrian Green Party leader with 97% of the vote.

[Franzl]

I took the one for Salzburg....I'll do the other one at some point.

ÖVP: +105
FPÖ: +35
BZÖ: +20
SPÖ: -25
Grüne: -80

[Tender Branson]

Latest Salzburg poll by IGF (Institut für Grundlagenforschung):

SPÖ: 42%
ÖVP: 37%
FPÖ: 11%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 1%

[Tender Branson]

How times have changed:

Austrian Politician Calls Prophet Muhammad a 'Child Molester'



A candidate campaigning for the Graz city council in Austria says it is time that Islam was "thrown back ... behind the Mediterranean," and alleges Muhammad wrote the Koran in "epileptic fits."

Election campaigns, it would seem, are uncomfortable times for immigrants to be in Europe. First, it was Roland Koch, the conservative politician in the German state of Hesse who turned up the rhetoric and began railing against "criminal young foreigners" in his country. Now, an Austrian politician has followed suit.

Susanne Winter, a right-wing politician with the FPÖ party running for a city council seat in the city of Graz, blasted Muslims on Sunday, saying that "in today's system" the Prophet Muhammad would be considered a "child molester," apparently referring to his marriage to a six-year-old child. She also said that it is time for Islam to be "thrown back where it came from, behind the Mediterranean." Not yet finished, she also claimed that Muhammad wrote the Koran in "epileptic fits."

In an interview with the daily Österreich published on Monday, Winter continued the onslaught saying that child abuse is "widespread" among Muslim men and that Graz is facing a "tsunami of Muslim immigration." In 20 or 30 years, she warned, half of Austria's population would be Muslim.

Her comments have resulted in a storm of protest in Austria, with politicians and commentators of all stripes taking Winter and her party to task. Austrian prosecutors are also looking into the possibility of filing charges against the 50-year-old politician for incitement.

Koch's CDU just won the Hesse elections and the b**ch Winter was just sentenced to 3 months in prison and to pay a fine of 25.000€ ...

Expect FPÖ/BZÖ to cross the 20% in the next federal elections 2010. They got what they wanted with her comments: Free Air Time.

Well, they got 28% in Oct. 2008 ...

[Bono]

Freedom of expression is such a cherished liberty in central Europe.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Salzburg City poll by IGF:

SPÖ: 41% (-3 compared with 2004)
ÖVP: 27% (nc)
Greens: 15% (nc)
FPÖ: 11% (+1)
BZÖ: 4% (+4)
KPÖ: 2% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Latest Salzburg poll by Gallup/Ö24:

SPÖ: 39%
ÖVP: 35%
FPÖ: 14%
Greens: 7%
BZÖ: 4%
Others: 1%

Latest national poll, also by Gallup/Ö24:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 16%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 2%

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg poll by IMAS, published in today's edition of the newspaper "Krone":

SPÖ: 45-47%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 7-9%
Greens: 6-8%
BZÖ: 1-3%

This is a far better result for the SPÖ than in the Gallup poll yesterday. I believe that the SPÖ will win, but I doubt that it will do better than in 2004 ...

Also, the latest Carinthia poll - also by IMAS - is showing a close race:

BZÖ: 40-42%
SPÖ: 39-41%
ÖVP: 9-11%
Greens: 5-7%
FPÖ: 4-6%

It would be great if the SPÖ defeats the BZÖ and the FPÖ fails to cross the 5% treshold ...

[Tender Branson]

The Institute IMAS has an interesting report out, studying the long-term voting intentions of Austrian voters from 1981-2009, broken down by demographic groups (comparable with the American Pew Research Insititute):

Young Austrian voters under 30 are voting heavily for the far-right FPÖ/BZÖ (37%) and the Greens (19%) and the older they become, the more they tend to support the centrist SPÖ and ÖVP (currently the government).

The 37% is far higher than the 28% FPÖ/BZÖ received in the federal elections last year.

In the age group 50+, already 63% support SPÖ and ÖVP, compared with 44% in the sub-30 group.

Currently, 33% of men support FPÖ/BZÖ, compared with 24% of women. 37% of men back SPÖ/Greens, compared with 47% of women.

22% of people with a high school or university diploma support the Greens, compared with 5% of those without.

http://www.imas.at/content/download/510/2053/version/1/file/02_02.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile the Chamber of Labor elections in the states of Salzburg and Vorarlberg took place during the last 2 weeks. All the votes are counted in Vorarlberg and the ÖVP Union won comfortably. In Salzburg, half the votes are counted and the Social-Democrat FSG has increased their share to about 70%. The FPÖ Union just increased their share by 4%, far worse than I anticipated. These union elections are indicators as to how the state elections will play out this year. I voted for the FSG and also intend to vote for the SPÖ (lean) or Greens in the March 1 state elections.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Carinthia poll by Hayek:

BZÖ: 38%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 2%

Also, Gallup for Ö24:

BZÖ: 41%
SPÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 13%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 5%

Another (SPÖ-internal) by SORA:

SPÖ: 41%
BZÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 10%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

...

GO, SPÖ !!!

[Hash]

Any nationwide polls?

[Tender Branson]

Any nationwide polls?

No new polls this weekend ... (But scroll up and you'll find the latest.)

[Tender Branson]

Any nationwide polls?

A new national poll is out (Market for the newspaper Standard):

SPÖ: 34%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%

[Verily]

Latest Carinthia poll by Hayek:

BZÖ: 38%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 2%

Also, Gallup for Ö24:

BZÖ: 41%
SPÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 13%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 5%

Another (SPÖ-internal) by SORA:

SPÖ: 41%
BZÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 10%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

...

GO, SPÖ !!!

Is an SPO-OVP anti-BZO coalition conceivable (maybe with the Greens, too, if necessary)?

[Tender Branson]

Latest Carinthia poll by Hayek:

BZÖ: 38%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 2%

Also, Gallup for Ö24:

BZÖ: 41%
SPÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 13%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 5%

Another (SPÖ-internal) by SORA:

SPÖ: 41%
BZÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 10%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

...

GO, SPÖ !!!

Is an SPO-OVP anti-BZO coalition conceivable (maybe with the Greens, too, if necessary)?

So far they have not made any coalition preferences, but it`s not unlikely.

Maybe they'll continue the current BZÖ-SPÖ-ÖVP coalition ...

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia poll by Market for News Online:

BZÖ: 39%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 1%

Still hoping for the SPÖ to overtake the BZÖ and the FPÖ to fall below 5% ...

New Salzburg poll by Market for News Online:

SPÖ: 44%
ÖVP: 37%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 8%
BZÖ: 2%

A few weeks ago I would have voted for the SPÖ for strategic reasons (the race was closer), but given the current 7-point lead I'll probably vote Green again ...

[Tender Branson]

New (internal) Gallup poll for the ÖVP:

SPÖ: 39-40%
ÖVP: 36-37%
FPÖ: 13-14%
Greens: 7-8%
BZÖ: 2-3%

500 Salzburg State voters aged 16+ surveyed between Feb. 2-4, 2009. MoE = 4%

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ: 32%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

[Franzl]

Latest federal Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ: 32%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

That's pretty damn depressing, for several reasons.

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ: 32%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

That's pretty damn depressing, for several reasons.

Yes. But just wait for next year, when the Vienna State (City) Elections take place:

H.C. Strache, who will be the mayoral candidate for the FPÖ, recently said in the Pressestunde that in Vienna the FPÖ is polling at more than 30% right now in their internal polls, with the SPÖ at 40% or below. There are no independent polls as of now to prove this, but I think it's not impossible. The day Vienna elects H.C. Strache as mayor would be a very sad day. Thankfully Johannes Hahn of the City-ÖVP has ruled out any form of work with the Strache-FPÖ, not to mention SPÖ and the Greens. But Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) - in office since 1994 - will not be mayor forever, and 2010 seems to be the year when the FPÖ will launch a strong campaign against him ...

[Tender Branson]

2 new federal polls I´ve just found:

Gallup/Ö24

SPÖ: 34%
ÖVP: 31%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 7%

Fessel-GfK/Kronen Zeitung:

SPÖ: 33-34%
ÖVP: 31-32%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 9-10%
BZÖ: 5%

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/OGM poll on 2 social issues in Austria:

Abolish the subject "Religion" in schools and replace it with the subject "Ethics" (currently you can choose between Religion (Catholic, Evangelic & Islam - in some schools - and Ethics, as was the case in my high school):

Support: 30%
Oppose: 62%

Liberalization of the current gun laws (to make it easier to get handguns):

Support: 9%
Oppose: 89%

It seems Austrians are very Anti-Gun and not in line with H.C. Strache (FPÖ) on this issue, who proposed an easing of gun laws recently, so that cab-drivers, tobacconists, jewelers etc. can arm themselves against "foreign" criminals ...

http://www.wienweb.at/content.aspx?menu=4&cid=160549

[Franzl]

I support the first one.

And I don't completely oppose the second one....but I'm not too big a fan.