2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

* Salzburg (my home state) - March 1, 2009 (also local elections)

* Carinthia - March 1, 2009 (also local elections)

* European Parliament Elections - June 7, 2009

* Vorarlberg - September 20, 2009

* Upper Austria - September 27, 2009 (also local elections)



Previous Election Results:

Salzburg 2004

SPÖ - 45.4%
ÖVP - 37.9%
FPÖ - 8.7%
Greens - 8.0%

Carinthia 2004

FPÖ - 42.4%
SPÖ - 38.4%
ÖVP - 11.6%
Greens - 6.7%
KPÖ - 0.6%
Others - 0.3%

Upper Austria 2003

ÖVP - 43.4%
SPÖ - 38.3%
Greens - 9.1%
FPÖ - 8.4%
KPÖ - 0.8%

Vorarlberg 2004

ÖVP - 54.9%
SPÖ - 16.9%
Greens - 10.2%
FPÖ - 12.9%
Others - 5.1%

Austria - European Parliament 2004

SPÖ - 33.3%
ÖVP - 32.7%
HP Martin - 14.0%
Greens - 12.9%
FPÖ - 6.3%
The Left - 0.8%

[Tender Branson]

Latest polls:

Salzburg/IMAS/November 2008

SPÖ - 44%
ÖVP - 34%
FPÖ - 10%
Greens - 8%
BZÖ - 4%

Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) defeats ÖVP-frontrunner Wilfried Haslauer 51-24 in a direct-vote for Governor with the rest undecided or supporting minor party candidates.

Upper Austria/IMAS/November 2008

ÖVP - 42%
SPÖ - 31%
FPÖ - 10%
Greens - 9%
BZÖ - 6%
Others - 2%

Carinthia/Market/July 2008 (Note: Conducted before the death of Jörg Haider)

BZÖ - 42%
SPÖ - 32%
ÖVP - 11%
Greens - 8%
FPÖ - 6%
Others - 1%

Vorarlberg/Berndt/January 2008

ÖVP - 50%
SPÖ - 16%
FPÖ - 16%
Greens - 11%
BZÖ - 3%
Others - 4%

[Tender Branson]

First Carinthia poll by IMAS after the death of Gov. Jörg Haider (BZÖ):

BZÖ: 44% (+44 since 2004 election)
SPÖ: 35% (-3)
ÖVP: 10% (-2)
Greens: 5% (-2)
FPÖ: 5% (-37)
Others: 1% (nc)

Top choice for governor:

Gerhard Dörfler, BZÖ - 42%
Reinhart Rohr, SPÖ - 15%
Josef Martinz, ÖVP - 13%
Rolf Holub, Grüne - 2%
Franz Schwager, FPÖ - not enough support

[Tender Branson]

New Spectra poll for Upper Austria:

ÖVP - 46%
SPÖ - 33%
FPÖ - 9%
Greens - 8%
Others - 4%

[Tender Branson]

New national Profil/OGM poll out:

SPÖ - 34% (Grand-Coalition-member)
ÖVP - 28% (Grand-Coalition-member)

FPÖ - 17%
Greens - 11%
BZÖ - 9%
Others - 1%

Another Gallup/Ö24 poll shows:

SPÖ - 31% (Grand-Coalition-member)
ÖVP - 29% (Grand-Coalition-member)

FPÖ - 17%
Greens - 14%
BZÖ - 7%
Others - 2%

Meanwhile, Hans-Peter Martin has announced that he'll run for re-election in the June 2009 EURO Parliament Elections, maybe on the "Libertas" list of Declan Ganley, who fought the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland earlier this year.



Ganley has also talked with French politician Philippe de Villiers about running in June. In the 2004 EURO elections, Hans-Peter Martin got 14% of the vote in Austria and 2 seats in the EU Parliament. Ganley also said that "Libertas" will contest the Elections in all 27 states of the EU.



Also, Ulrike Lunacek, Austrian MP from the Green Party announced that she's running to succeed Johannes Voggenhuber, Austrian Green member of the EURO Parliament. Lunacek is the first lesbian MP in Austria and will be the first lesbian Austrian MEP in Brussels. She's also the head of the European Greens.

[Tender Branson]

Ö24 reports today that President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) is thinking about not running for re-election in 2010, allthough he has an approval rating of 80%.

If he decides to retire, the SPÖ could nominate the popular President of the Austrian Parliament, Barbara Prammer.

The ÖVP is likely to nominate Erwin Pröll, popular Governor of Lower Austria.

I'm looking forward to this race, if it indeed happens:

 vs.

[Tender Branson]

Map of the 2004 Salzburg State Elections I've just found:

[Tender Branson]

derStandard.at reports today that President Fischer (SPÖ) will decide by Mid-2009 if he'll run for re-election in 2010 or not.

3 new Carinthia (internal) polls are out as well:

Sora, for the SPÖ

BZÖ - 41%
SPÖ - 38%
ÖVP - 11%
Greens - 6%
FPÖ - 2%
Others - 2%

OGM, for the BZÖ

BZÖ - 42%
SPÖ - 29%
ÖVP - 12%
Greens - 10%
FPÖ - 5%
Others - 2%

ÖVP poll, unknown institute

BZÖ - 40%
SPÖ - 30%
ÖVP - 13%
Greens - 6%
FPÖ - 4%
Others - 7%

[Tender Branson]

Wow. What's the threshold?

5%

[Tender Branson]

Wow. What's the threshold?

5%

Do you think the FPÖ will make it?

Maybe barely: the FPÖ at 5%, the BZÖ at 40%.

If the 2008 Parliamentary Results of Carinthia are any indicator (they are of course not), the FPÖ could get between 5-8% ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal poll by Market for the newspaper "Der Standard":

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 27%
FPÖ: 23%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 9%
Others: 1%

The 32% would be the best showing of the Austrian Far-Right (FPÖ/BZÖ) since the Nazis ...

Disgusting ... Don't know what's wrong with my countrymen/women ...

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile a brand-new Ö24/Gallup poll shows the Far-Right in worse shape (24%) than the Standard poll:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 12%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 2%

[Tender Branson]

Latest Salzburg poll by GMK:

SPÖ: 41% (-4 since 2004 election)
ÖVP: 36% (-2)
FPÖ: 14% (+5)
Greens: 6% (-2)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)

In a direct vote for Governor, incumbent Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) would defeat Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP) by 51-27 ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest Upper Austria poll by Market:

ÖVP: 43%
SPÖ: 32%
FPÖ: 12%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 4%

In a hypothetical direct vote for Governor, Incumbent Josef Pühringer (ÖVP) would defeat Erich Haider (SPÖ) by 63-21.

[Tender Branson]

2 new Carinthia polls:

Integral for the newspaper Kurier (500 voters, aged 16+):

BZÖ - 42%
SPÖ - 34%
ÖVP - 12%
Greens - 7%
FPÖ - 5%

Gov. Gerhard Dörfler (BZÖ) defeats Reinhart Rohr (SPÖ) by 51-26 in a hypothetical direct vote.

Humaninstitut Klagenfurt (joke poll in my opinion):

SPÖ - 27%
BZÖ - 25%
ÖVP - 9%
FPÖ - 8%
Greens - 6%
Undecided/Others - 25%

1 new Salzburg poll:

Integral for the newspaper Kurier (500 voters, aged 16+):

SPÖ - 40%
ÖVP - 35%
FPÖ - 12%
Greens - 9%
BZÖ - 4%

Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) defeats Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP) by 56-32 in a hypothetical direct vote.

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg poll by IGF – Institut für Grundlagenforschung:



We Salzburgers not only love the Social Democrats, but also our politicians:



(Explanation: Gov. Burgstaller gets a 77-22 "trust-rating", compared with 73-14 in a February 2008 poll and so on ...)

Burgstaller (SPÖ) defeats Haslauer (ÖVP) by 55-20 in a direct vote for Governor, despite the fact that Haslauer gets a 72-23 trust-rating ...

[Tender Branson]

In today's edition of the newspaper "Österreich" there's a big "Gallup" poll release for the Austrian "Super-election-years 2009/10".

They polled 3 state elections this year, the EU-Parliament Elections in June, the Presidential Election in April 2010 and the so called "Sonntagsfrage" - the parties standing in federal elections:

Let's start with the Federal Elections (the last held in October 2008, the next probably in 2013):

SPÖ: 34% (+5 since the Oct. elections)
ÖVP: 30% (+4)
FPÖ: 15% (-3)
Greens: 13% (+3)
BZÖ: 6% (-5)
Others: 2% (-4)

That's a clear improvement for the SPÖ-ÖVP government since the elections 4 months ago (+9%), especially because Austrians approve by 59-32 of the Coalition work so far. They approve 52-34 how the Coalition handles the financial crisis.

Second: The EU-Parliamentary Elections in June. And there's a surprise in the first Austrian poll on this election:

ÖVP: 31% (-2 since 2004 election)
SPÖ: 30% (-3)
FPÖ: 20% (+14)
Greens: 14% (+1)
BZÖ: 4% (+4)
Others: 1% (-14)

Remember that Independent Hans-Peter Martin got 14% in 2004 and The Left (KPÖ) 1%, therefore the sharp decrease in "Others". It is not yet clear if Martin will run again this year. Otherwise strong showing by the "Anti-EU"-parties FPÖ and BZÖ - as expected.

Third, the 2010 Presidential elections:

Incumbent Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) will announce in Mid-2009 if he'll run for a second term in 2010. he currently enjoys 80% approval ratings:

Gallup tested the following 1st round:

Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 54%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 17%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 10%
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens): 9%

There wouldn't even be a run-off, Fischer would easily win in the first round.

And then there's the 3 state elections that were polled by Gallup:

On March 1, Salzburg and Carinthia will vote:

The Salzburg poll:

SPÖ - 39%
ÖVP - 37%
FPÖ - 14%
Greens - 7%
BZÖ - 3%

That's a slightly tighter race than other polls have showed, but the SPÖ has only started its campaign recently, while the ÖVP has started about a month ago.

The Carinthia poll:

BZÖ - 41%
SPÖ - 35%
ÖVP - 13%
FPÖ - 6%
Greens - 5%

It would just be too good if the SPÖ would defeat the BZÖ, especially after Gov. Dörflers recent "n-joke". According to Gallup, the BZÖ would win over 50% if Jörg Haider would be alive. 72% in Carinthia are missing Jörg Haider.

The Upper Austria poll:

ÖVP - 40%
SPÖ - 35%
FPÖ - 12%
Greens - 9%
BZÖ - 4%

Upper Austria has always been a ÖVP-stronghold in state elections, but the recent VOEST-layoffs and shorter working times in this "Steel-State" (particular in and around Linz) may have helped the state SPÖ to come closer to federal SPÖ results.

[Tender Branson]

For the German-speakers on this Forum. The "Wahlkabinen" for the March 1 Salzburg and Carinthia elections:

http://wahlkabine.at/ltw2009salzburg

http://wahlkabine.at/ltw2009kaernten

[Tender Branson]

I took the Wahlkabinen-Questions as well and my results are quite similar to both of yours, only that the other parties did not have a "minus" in front of them ...

BTW: The Green Party convention is resuming today and lesbian MP Ulrike Lunacek defeated MEP Johannes Voggenhuber for front-runner in the June Euro-Parliament-Elections, by 55%-45%. After that, Voggenhuber declared that he'll retire from politics. The second place in the Green EU list was won by current MEP Eva Lichtenberger, the 3rd by Monika Vana (Green Council Member in Vienna).

Eva Glawischnig meanwhile was elected Austrian Green Party leader with 97% of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Salzburg poll by IGF (Institut für Grundlagenforschung):

SPÖ: 42%
ÖVP: 37%
FPÖ: 11%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 1%

[Tender Branson]

How times have changed:

Austrian Politician Calls Prophet Muhammad a 'Child Molester'



A candidate campaigning for the Graz city council in Austria says it is time that Islam was "thrown back ... behind the Mediterranean," and alleges Muhammad wrote the Koran in "epileptic fits."

Election campaigns, it would seem, are uncomfortable times for immigrants to be in Europe. First, it was Roland Koch, the conservative politician in the German state of Hesse who turned up the rhetoric and began railing against "criminal young foreigners" in his country. Now, an Austrian politician has followed suit.

Susanne Winter, a right-wing politician with the FPÖ party running for a city council seat in the city of Graz, blasted Muslims on Sunday, saying that "in today's system" the Prophet Muhammad would be considered a "child molester," apparently referring to his marriage to a six-year-old child. She also said that it is time for Islam to be "thrown back where it came from, behind the Mediterranean." Not yet finished, she also claimed that Muhammad wrote the Koran in "epileptic fits."

In an interview with the daily Österreich published on Monday, Winter continued the onslaught saying that child abuse is "widespread" among Muslim men and that Graz is facing a "tsunami of Muslim immigration." In 20 or 30 years, she warned, half of Austria's population would be Muslim.

Her comments have resulted in a storm of protest in Austria, with politicians and commentators of all stripes taking Winter and her party to task. Austrian prosecutors are also looking into the possibility of filing charges against the 50-year-old politician for incitement.

Koch's CDU just won the Hesse elections and the b**ch Winter was just sentenced to 3 months in prison and to pay a fine of 25.000€ ...

Expect FPÖ/BZÖ to cross the 20% in the next federal elections 2010. They got what they wanted with her comments: Free Air Time.

Well, they got 28% in Oct. 2008 ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest Salzburg City poll by IGF:

SPÖ: 41% (-3 compared with 2004)
ÖVP: 27% (nc)
Greens: 15% (nc)
FPÖ: 11% (+1)
BZÖ: 4% (+4)
KPÖ: 2% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Latest Salzburg poll by Gallup/Ö24:

SPÖ: 39%
ÖVP: 35%
FPÖ: 14%
Greens: 7%
BZÖ: 4%
Others: 1%

Latest national poll, also by Gallup/Ö24:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 16%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 2%

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg poll by IMAS, published in today's edition of the newspaper "Krone":

SPÖ: 45-47%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 7-9%
Greens: 6-8%
BZÖ: 1-3%

This is a far better result for the SPÖ than in the Gallup poll yesterday. I believe that the SPÖ will win, but I doubt that it will do better than in 2004 ...

Also, the latest Carinthia poll - also by IMAS - is showing a close race:

BZÖ: 40-42%
SPÖ: 39-41%
ÖVP: 9-11%
Greens: 5-7%
FPÖ: 4-6%

It would be great if the SPÖ defeats the BZÖ and the FPÖ fails to cross the 5% treshold ...

[Tender Branson]

The Institute IMAS has an interesting report out, studying the long-term voting intentions of Austrian voters from 1981-2009, broken down by demographic groups (comparable with the American Pew Research Insititute):

Young Austrian voters under 30 are voting heavily for the far-right FPÖ/BZÖ (37%) and the Greens (19%) and the older they become, the more they tend to support the centrist SPÖ and ÖVP (currently the government).

The 37% is far higher than the 28% FPÖ/BZÖ received in the federal elections last year.

In the age group 50+, already 63% support SPÖ and ÖVP, compared with 44% in the sub-30 group.

Currently, 33% of men support FPÖ/BZÖ, compared with 24% of women. 37% of men back SPÖ/Greens, compared with 47% of women.

22% of people with a high school or university diploma support the Greens, compared with 5% of those without.

http://www.imas.at/content/download/510/2053/version/1/file/02_02.pdf