MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Sam Spade]

Two retired judges and a former SOS judge 50 challenged ballots.

I note that one of them is particularly big on not counting ballots, whereas the other two are.

http://www.startribune.com/galleries/35736884.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUr

[emailking]

The possibility for a separate runoff producing an equally close result exists, but it is not probable.

That's not the issue. You're looking at it the wrong way. It doesn't have to be close to begin with. Let's say we use a runoff system. Here's the initial count.

Candidate A: 45%
Candidate B: 30%
Candidate C: 25%

Here, A and B go into a runoff. It turns out that candidate C voters split such that the final result is:

Candidate B: 50.001%
Candidate A: 49.999%

Now we're locked in endless recounts as Candidate A fights to win and everyone is saying how nice it would be if we had just used a plurality system as then the result would have been clear in this case.

More likely the Candidate C voters don't show up for the runoff.

Along with candidate A and candidate B voters who also don't show up since it's a run-off. It's also likely that the result is not razor-thin close. The point is that you are going to see that sort of thing happen occasionally, just like we see really close elections happen now, even though they are unlikely.

[Holmes]

Coleman is back to the favorite on intrade...by 0.4%

Now it's Franken... I bet it's probably gonna go back and forth now for a while until the challenges are dealt with.

[Meeker]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28226181/

Money quotes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

When the hell is this thing going to be over? Do they technically have to have a winner before inauguration day?

[Holmes]

Tomorrow is when the board looks over the challenged ballots.

[Franzl]

Tomorrow is when the board looks over the challenged ballots.

Do you know how long it will take them to review them all?

[Holmes]

Umm... there's a lot so maybe a day or two? I've never really seen this happen so it's just a guess.

[Lief 🗽]

They should be done for Friday.

And then the "loser" will sue!

[Franzl]

They should be done for Friday.

And then the "loser" will sue!

I'm not even sure there will be a suit......everything seems to have been conducted properly up until now.

[minionofmidas]

You are forgetting, that run-off would lead to a substantial increase in the number of races w/ more than 2 candidates. In fact, methinks, if the run-off were the norm, the three- or four- semi-serious candidate races would become the norm as well.

That should be verifiable, as parts of the US (former confederacy minus Tennessee plus South Dakota) use runoffs in their primaries.

Btw, a good example of an election that wasn't close as it was but would likely have been with IRV is LA-6 this year.

[ChrisFromNJ]

After 122 ballots, all of which were challenged by Franken:

+78 Coleman, +14 Franken, +30 Other

A live feed of the canvassing board: http://www.twincities.com/ci_11244046?nclick_check=1

[Meeker]

Watching the Canvassing Board is not for the faint of heart. Ritchie keeps referring to "the special stack of ballots underneath my napkins." Lord help us all.

[ChrisFromNJ]

There is very little doubt in my mind that Franken will win this race. Coleman has around 500 more challenges than Franken, and Coleman is not getting nearly the mileadge out of Franken's challenged ballots as he would hope.

[they don't love you like i love you]

What's the InTrade numbers now?

[Ronnie]

What's the InTrade numbers now?

Franken has a 60-40 advantage

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=Minnesota#

[Lunar]

After 122 ballots, all of which were challenged by Franken:

+78 Coleman, +14 Franken, +30 Other

A live feed of the canvassing board: http://www.twincities.com/ci_11244046?nclick_check=1

10% success rate on challenges is phenomenal, I think.

Is this a SRS?

[Meeker]

That AP story is probably heavily influencing the InTrade odds.

[ChrisFromNJ]

After 122 ballots, all of which were challenged by Franken:

+78 Coleman, +14 Franken, +30 Other

A live feed of the canvassing board: http://www.twincities.com/ci_11244046?nclick_check=1

10% success rate on challenges is phenomenal, I think.

Is this a SRS?

SRS?

[Aizen]

stick a fork in norm coleman. he's finished.

[Lunar]

After 122 ballots, all of which were challenged by Franken:

+78 Coleman, +14 Franken, +30 Other

A live feed of the canvassing board: http://www.twincities.com/ci_11244046?nclick_check=1

10% success rate on challenges is phenomenal, I think.

Is this a SRS?

SRS?

simple random sample

[Ronnie]

stick a fork in norm coleman. he's finished.

Yup, looks like it.  Unless he comes up with a lawsuit.

[Rococo4]

it doesnt look as good as it did at times during the recount, thats for sure.

still, a long way to go with many more twists and turns.

[Sam Spade]

Do we have breakdown of the reviewed ballots "as they were originally counted"?  Because, really, without that, we're almost throwing darts in the dark.

[Sarnstrom]

Didn't they go through the ballots county by county in alphabetical order?