MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Torie]

Not much of one. Torie is basically just saying Coleman has a chance if he pulls out every dirty trick in his bag.

Having your day in court is not a dirty trick in my book.  Are you hostile to the black robe class? 

[Psychic Octopus]

Coleman really wishes he could steal this one like Bush stole 2000, but it looks like Franken will not only win but also officially win.

Bush didn't steal 2000, Gore stole 2000. lol jk.

[emailking]

I tend to doubt that since I am not sure anyone knows the vote patterns of absentees "wrongly" rejected.

I think the assumption most people are going on is that they will have a slight Franken edge since (according to the polling) the absentees in general had a slight Franken edge and the wrongful rejection aspect of it shouldn't favor one side over the other since it's a clerical error. But you're correct in that no one actually knows.

[Sam Spade]

I'm glad someone's doing the math.  I spent about 5 hours this afternoon running through the challenges and only got through about 10%, and my eyes were glazed over then.  So, I've decided going through all the ballots is really a waste of my time and I won't get it done.

I do promise, now since I have some free time, a new thread or two

[panda_priest]

Has O'Reilly reported this yet? I can't wait to hear him have to report Franken's likely victory.

[Lunar]

I am now a passionate advocate AGAINST rejected absentee ballots being counted.

Why?  Star Trib predicts a 48 vote lead for Franken tomorrow, shockingly close to my initial prediction of 42.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/36589859.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUec7PaP3E77K_0c::D3aDhUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL.

If Franken comes out ahead though, he'll probably consider it moot and opt not to push for their counting.

[emailking]

I think he should still push for it. Better to count all the votes and lose because of it and lose than to advocate not counting perfectly valid votes...which is what he would be doing if he backs off on the issue at this point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think he should still push for it. Better to count all the votes and lose because of it and lose than to advocate not counting perfectly valid votes...which is what he would be doing if he backs off on the issue at this point.

He won't lose because of it. If Coleman thinks that's even possible, he will then, but clearly Coleman doesn't.

[Holmes]

This was the 30-50 votes that his campaign was predicting though, so I'm not too surprised.

Besides, if he decides to not want the absentee ballots now, it'll seem kinda sleazy. He's the one who pushed for them so much when things weren't looking good, and now that he's ahead, he doesn't wanna count them? No go. Flip flopper!

[Хahar 🤔]

This was the 30-50 votes that his campaign was predicting though, so I'm not too surprised.

Besides, if he decides to not want the absentee ballots now, it'll seem kinda sleazy. He's the one who pushed for them so much when things weren't looking good, and now that he's ahead, he doesn't wanna count them? No go. Flip flopper!

Well, he doesn't face election for 6 years if he wins. I'd say the risk of not going through is low.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not really up to Franken at this point anyway though.

[Lunar]

If Franken comes out ahead, Coleman’s campaign might actually want to count the dismissed absentees (although they might risk lawyers being reprimanded in exchange for blatantly refusing to count them from liberal areas).  Even though there is a 95%+ chance that Franken would gain more than he would lose from including the ballots, Coleman needs as much uncertainty as possible at this point...unless he is going to use the narrow margin as justification for something else.

[Хahar 🤔]

If Franken comes out ahead, Coleman’s campaign might actually want to count the dismissed absentees (although they might risk lawyers being reprimanded in exchange for blatantly refusing to count them from liberal areas).  Even though there is a 95%+ chance that Franken would gain more than he would lose from including the ballots, Coleman needs as much uncertainty as possible at this point...unless he is going to use the narrow margin as justification for something else.

What are you thinking of here?

[Lunar]

If Franken comes out ahead, Coleman’s campaign might actually want to count the dismissed absentees (although they might risk lawyers being reprimanded in exchange for blatantly refusing to count them from liberal areas).  Even though there is a 95%+ chance that Franken would gain more than he would lose from including the ballots, Coleman needs as much uncertainty as possible at this point...unless he is going to use the narrow margin as justification for something else.

What are you thinking of here?

Coleman’s campaign right now has been obsessing over “duplicate” ballots (which is their latest challenge to the state’s Supreme Court).  They claim there are about 100 that have been counted twice.  Maybe their case would be less compelling if his margin was higher.  Or, alternatively, keeping the margin as low as possible increases the odds that the duplicate ballots could push him over the top.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What Coleman is referring to is the 113 ballots that simply went missing in a Minneapolis precinct. At first it was assumed those ballots were initially just counted twice, but then it was proven the numbers don't add up. So as strange as it sounds, those ballots did simply go missing. The Canvassing Board has basically agreed to just use the original count in that precinct. Coleman however continues to cling to the argument they were double counted. His arguments really are similar to J. J.'s Bradley Effect arguments and just as taken seriously by anyone besides his campaign, but it's his last argument.

[Lunar]

What Coleman is referring to is the 113 ballots that simply went missing in a Minneapolis precinct. At first it was assumed those ballots were initially just counted twice, but then it was proven the numbers don't add up. So as strange as it sounds, those ballots did simply go missing. The Canvassing Board has basically agreed to just use the original count in that precinct. Coleman however continues to cling to the argument they were double counted. His arguments really are similar to J. J.'s Bradley Effect arguments and just as taken seriously by anyone besides his campaign, but it's his last argument.

If that is what he is talking about, then I hope he wins his lawsuit and they don't count any absentees because he'll win by exactly 1 vote since didn't Franken gain 47 in that precinct?   Thus the election will be stolen, Democrats everywhere will be outraged, Republicans will look bad, and Franken won't be an unappealing face for the Democrats in national politics.

Luckily for Franken supporters, not gonna happen.

[Ronnie]

What Coleman is referring to is the 113 ballots that simply went missing in a Minneapolis precinct. At first it was assumed those ballots were initially just counted twice, but then it was proven the numbers don't add up. So as strange as it sounds, those ballots did simply go missing. The Canvassing Board has basically agreed to just use the original count in that precinct. Coleman however continues to cling to the argument they were double counted. His arguments really are similar to J. J.'s Bradley Effect arguments and just as taken seriously by anyone besides his campaign, but it's his last argument.

If that is what he is talking about, then I hope he wins his lawsuit and they don't count any absentees because he'll win by exactly 1 vote since didn't Franken gain 47 in that precinct?   Thus the election will be stolen, Democrats everywhere will be outraged, Republicans will look bad, and Franken won't be an unappealing face for the Democrats in national politics.

Luckily for Franken supporters, not gonna happen.

[Lunar]

Trust me, it's better for Franken to win than to have Coleman win with one vote due to legal shenanigans.  Franken's presence in the Senate as a high-ranking representative of the Democratic Party will hurt the Democrats.

Although you did invest money into Coleman's campaign, if he wins by 1 vote, you might have been a deciding factor in his reelection!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I see Coleman was a WAY bigger embarrassment to my state than Franken.

[Ronnie]

I see Coleman was a WAY bigger embarrassment to my state than Franken.

How would you know?  He has never been elected to public office before.

[Lunar]

I see Coleman was a WAY bigger embarrassment to my state than Franken.

Of course.  But Coleman doesn't come across as personally distasteful to the average voter.


Why the frick do you think Franken did so much worse than the average Democrat, despite running possibly *the* best advertising campaign of any Democrat this cycle (yes, better than Obama's IMHO as someone who viewed more TV ads than anyone else here).

Coleman is relatively likable and he's not a far right-winger.  As far as Republicans go he's somewhere a notch to the left of Mainstream Democrats (perhaps Webb could be an equivalent comparison).

I know you hate Coleman for disgracing Wellstone and I guess Miami is obsessed with his turncoat behavior on medical marijuana, but a lot of senators have done worse things than that.  What really pisses you off is you have a Bush-supporting Republican.

And I was talking to Ronnie.  It's not about who represents Minnesota (the fact that Franken and Ventura are even electable does enough), but who's mug Bill O'Reilly and others throws on his screen whenever a certain prospective Democrat engages in some stupid antics unbecoming of a senator.

and again, I've read 1-2 of Franken's books (can't remember).

[Ronnie]

If O'Reilly doesn't cover the Minnesota senate race any time soon, I'm considering e-mailing him and asking him what his opinion is of Al Franken becoming the apparent senator-elect.  How would that work out?

[ChrisFromNJ]

I see Coleman was a WAY bigger embarrassment to my state than Franken.

Of course.  But Coleman doesn't come across as personally distasteful to the average voter.

This is your opinion. And I'm pretty sure that is irrelevant in the grand scheme. What does matter is what Minnesota thinks of Al Franken, and he, at this point, has received more votes than Norm Coleman.

[Ronnie]

I see Coleman was a WAY bigger embarrassment to my state than Franken.

Of course.  But Coleman doesn't come across as personally distasteful to the average voter.

This is your opinion. And I'm pretty sure that is irrelevant in the grand scheme. What does matter is what Minnesota thinks of Al Franken, and he, at this point, has received more votes than Norm Coleman.

You do realize that Franken won solely due to coattails, right?  Coleman would have won by 10+ points if the state was 50-50 in the presidential election.

Obviously, this doesn't matter, but Coleman did an excellent job in running 10 points ahead of McCain.