MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Sam Spade]

November 23, 2008

Completed Counties

County	Coleman	CHG	Franken	CHG	Shift	Challenges
Aitkin	3,619 (38%)	+2	3,891 (41%)	-1	C+3	C2, F0
Beltrami	9,452 (42%)	-2	10,032 (44%)	+2	F+4	C4, F3	SOS lacks one precinct.
Benton	8,444 (43%)	-25	6,462 (33%)	-24	F+1	C25, F31
Big Stone	1,209 (40%)	+1	1,270 (42%)	-2	C+3	C3, F3
Carlton	6,082 (33%)	-17	9,477 (51%)	-40	C+23	C47, F20
Carver	26,950 (54%)	-16	14,094 (28%)	-8	F+8	C10, F20
Cass	7,682 (47%)	-3	5,887 (36%)	+3	F+6	C3, F5
Chippewa	2,418 (38%)	-1	2,558 (40%)	0	F+1	C2, F3
Chisago	13,763 (47%)	-2	9,829 (33%)	-6	C+4	C5, F5
Clay	13,028 (45%)	-9	12,065 (41%)	-12	C+3	C3, F4
Clearwater	2,109 (50%)	0	1,595 (38%)	0	NC	C0, F0
Cook	1,202 (36%)	-4	1,617 (48%)	-3	F+1	C2, F8
Cottonwood	2,767 (46%)	+2	2,129 (35%)	-3	C+5	C4, F5
Douglas	10,058 (48%)	-14	6,833 (33%)	-21	C+7	C25, F19
Faribault	3,595 (44%)	-3	2,909 (36%)	0	F+3	C3, F4
Fillmore	4,770 (42%)	-1	4,614 (41%)	-15	C+14	C27, F3
Freeborn	6,566 (38%)	+1	7,431 (43%)	+2	F+1	C1, F0
Grant	1,483 (41%)	0	1,466 (41%)	-2	C+2	C3, F0
Houston	5,026 (46%)	-2	4,596 (42%)	0	F+2	C2, F1
Hubbard	5,751 (49%)	0	4,023 (34%)	-4	C+4	C1, F0
Isanti	9,553 (48%)	-9	6,551 (33%)	-4	F+5	C5, F10
Itasca	9,259 (38%)	-5	11,539 (47%)	-3	F+2	C5, F4
Kandiyohi	10,242 (47%)	-4	8,003 (36%)	0	F+4	C3, F6
Lake	2,428 (35%)	-6	3,548 (51%)	-2	F+4	C1, F5
Lincoln	1,464 (46%)	+1	1,272 (40%)	-1	C+2	C0, F0
Lyon	6,085 (48%)	-2	4,408 (35%)	-2	NC	C3, F5
McLeod	9,083 (48%)	-9	5,490 (29%)	-4	F+5	C7, F15
Mahnomen	858 (36%)	0	1,138 (48%)	0	NC	C2, F3
Marshall	2,322 (48%)	+1	1,749 (36%)	0	C+1	C1, F3
Martin	5,106 (47%)	-5	3,588 (33%)	0	F+5	C0, F4
Meeker	5,649 (45%)	-48	3,865 (31%)	-5	F+43	C7, F51
Mille Lacs	5,827 (43%)	-22	4,791 (35%)	-6	F+16	C11, F26
Morrison	7,824 (46%)	+1	5,424 (32%)	-1	C+2	C1, F2
Murray	2,333 (48%)	-1	1,866 (38%)	+1	F+2	C0, F1
Nicollet	7,234 (40%)	-3	7,376 (40%)	-8	C+5	C9, F3	SOS lacks one precinct.
Nobles	4,188 (47%)	-1	3,533 (40%)	+2	F+3	C2, F3
Norman	1,334 (38%)	0	1,576 (45%)	0	NC	C0, F0
Olmsted	35,316 (46%)	-16	28,574 (37%)	-18	C+2	C23, F20
Otter Tail	17,195 (52%)	-5	10,736 (33%)	-2	F+3	C6, F6
Pennington	3,237 (47%)	0	2,595 (38%)	0	NC	C0, F2
Pine	5,681 (39%)	-1	6,014 (42%)	+5	F+6	C3, F2
Pipestone	2,632 (54%)	-5	1,670 (34%)	-10	C+5	C10, F6
Polk	7,349 (48%)	-4	5,923 (38%)	+1	F+5	C4, F4
Pope	2,749 (42%)	0	2,557 (39%)	0	NC	C2, F0
Red Lake	984 (44%)	0	834 (38%)	0	NC	C0, F0
Redwood	3,642 (46%)	+1	2,454 (31%)	+1	NC	C0, F0
Renville	3,274 (40%)	0	2,908 (36%)	+1	F+1	C0, F2
Rice	12,057 (38%)	-2	13,676 (43%)	+1	F+3	C5, F5
Roseau	4,394 (57%)	0	2,420 (31%)	0	NC	C3, F1
Sibley	3,498 (45%)	0	2,156 (28%)	-2	C+2	C2, F1
Steele	8,645 (44%)	+1	6,544(34%)	-8	C+9	C10, F2	SOS not updated.
Swift	1,879 (36%)	+1	2,293 (44%)	+2	F+1	C0, F1
Traverse	837 (41%)	+2	794 (39%)	+3	F+1	C0, F1
Wabasha	4,950 (42%)	-8	4,451 (38%)	-1	C+3	C16, F12
Wadena	3,675 (51%)	-6	2,287 (32%)	-5	F+1	C10, F10
Waseca	4,228 (42%)	0	3,261 (33%)	-2	C+2	C0, F2
Washington	63,756 (46%)	-55	50,504 (37%)	-67	C+12	C59, F51
Watonwan	2,100 (40%)	-3	2,009 (39%)	-8	C+5	C10, F4
Wilkin	1,807 (53%)	-7	1,064 (31%)	-10	C+3	C11, F7
Yellow Medicine	2,311 (42%)	0	2,167 (39%)	-4	C+4	C7, F2
TOTALS	231,665	-77	190,944	-71	F+6	C144, F146

[Sam Spade]

Most of the change today has to do with the St. Louis County and the outdated Eagle scanners they use.  About half of them have been counted, according to this story:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/34736454.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUs

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI, for those keeping score:  The MN SOS website says Coleman -47 votes, with 23.17% of precincts and 15.49% of votes.  The Star-Tribune says Coleman -34 votes, with 25% of precincts and 17% of votes.  And my counting of the Strib says Coleman -41 votes.  Still haven't counted the SOS yet...

Waiting for these numbers to coalesce around one result...

[Sam Spade]

Wait, Sam, if there have been significantly more precincts than votes, does that mean we've probably not hit up the pro-Franken urban centers yet?

Definitely in Hennepin - the results so far are from a few carriage precincts towards the western part of the county which should go GOP.

Not so in Ramsey.  The results so far skew towards Franken and look urban to me.

St. Louis looks like mainly rural precincts.  There is a slight Franken skew however (very very slight)

Not going to speak as much as Dakota, Washington and Anoka as I haven't analyzed them.

The results will skew rural right now, then urban.  The anti-BRTD Minneapolis suburbs get counted last.

[Sam Spade]

I can foresee two hilarious (and heartbreaking, depending on which side you're on) scenarios unfolding. First, Franken takes a narrow lead after all the D strongholds come in, but he loses his lead after the rural areas are counted. Second, Coleman survives the recount, but loses after some previously rejected absentee ballots are counted.

Quite possible.  I should note, however, that Franken is only challenging rejected absentees in Ramsey.  If he wins, I suspect Coleman will challenge rejected absentees in his strong counties and then we get pandamonium again

[Sam Spade]

The Strib now has an article up that says it will be Coleman +174 (-41 for the day) through 18% of votes.  Coleman has challenged 146.  Franken has challenged 123.

[Sam Spade]

BTW I assume when Sam says "anti-BRTD suburbs" he means places like Wright and Sherburne and not Washington and Dakota right? Though granted the former weren't THAT much stronger for Coleman than the latter.

Yes.  I was referring more to %-wise, as opposed to overall numbers.

Although it doesn't apply to the former list that much, Scott also doesn't start counting until December 3

[Sam Spade]

11 challenged ballots - You be the judge...  Statute provided.

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/

Ballot #1:  I would count the ballot for Franken, even though it comes close to being defective (see Subd. 3).  I don't buy the arrow argument - it doesn't look like an arrow (lol)

Ballot #2: Easy call - this one should count (presuming for Coleman).  A thumbprint is not a SS#, unless we have the voter in front of us.  Frankly, I think it falls under Subd. 12.

Ballot #3: Quite frankly, the mark is too far away and too much in-between Franken and the Libertarian to count it as a vote under Subd. 6 in my view.

Ballot #4: Vote for Franken.  The NO says a lot towards intent in my view.

Ballot #5: This is a tougher call than the others because the statute is unclear.  Quite frankly, I think it's a vote for Franken, simply Lizard People is only written in and not ovalled in, whereas it is ovalled in under President.  Also see Subd. 5.

Ballot #6:  Unlike Ballot #3, this one is quite clear in my view under Subd. 6.  Vote for Franken.

Ballot #7: Less clear than Ballot #1, but I would count it as a vote for Coleman.  This one and Ballot #8 fall under the same guidelines to me and escape Subd. 3

Ballot #8: As in Ballot #7, I would count it for Franken.

Ballot #9: Definitely a vote for Barkley.  See Subd. 11.

Ballot #10: As in Ballots 1, 7 and 8, an argument can be made for invalidation under Subd. 3.  I generally disagree and would count it for Barkley.

Ballot #11: Unlike 1, 7, 8 and 10, this is clearly an overvote.  The underline argument is ridiculous.

[Sam Spade]

Oh, and on the earlier ballot:

If the mark is touching one guy's oval and not touching your oval and you're arguing that it's your vote based on how many pixels cross the line (lol), you should be out of luck.  

The ballot shouldn't count for anyone.

[Sam Spade]

Oh, and on the earlier ballot:

If the mark is touching one guy's oval and not touching your oval and you're arguing that it's your vote based on how many pixels cross the line (lol), you should be out of luck.  

The ballot shouldn't count for anyone.

It was a joke :-D.

Well, as you can see with the "arrow" and "underline" argument, we do see some doozies.

[Sam Spade]

I've updated some of the completed counties in the original post, but haven't done it all yet and haven't gotten to the partials.

[Sam Spade]

Basically, everything is updated, except for the incomplete counties.

[Sam Spade]

Down to the last 6 counties to update in the incomplete list.

[Sam Spade]

So, anyone want to put down odds on Franken winning?

Roughly about the same odds as me getting a blue avatar around the end of December and lessening my posting habits around this joint, I suppose...

[Sam Spade]

Chart is now fully updated.  Coleman presently leads by 165.

All the updates today so far from the Strib have come from three counties:  Hennepin (5%V to 23%), St. Louis (19%V to 23%V) and Pine (71%V to 100%V).

Will update more later.

[Sam Spade]

What does "C4, F3" mean?  Has Coleman challenged 4 Franken ballots, or has Franken challenged four Coleman ballots?

"Hennepin (1%)   23%P, 23%V   237,649 (3,782)   -42   329,408 (2,508)   -37   F+5   C80, F44"

How does one lose votes in a recount, as outlined above with Coleman losing 42 and Franken 37?

Coleman has challenged four ballots, Franken has challenged three.  These can be any type of ballot - a blank vote, an overvote, a Franken vote, a Barkley vote, etc.

As to the second question, most of this likely occurred by multiple scans of the same ballot.  As I mentioned earlier, the audit showed to me that very few of the blank ballots would actually be counted, so there was a decent probability it was whoever lost the least votes would win.

Of course, the challenges may change that.

[Sam Spade]

What does "C4, F3" mean?  Has Coleman challenged 4 Franken ballots, or has Franken challenged four Coleman ballots?

"Hennepin (1%)   23%P, 23%V   237,649 (3,782)   -42   329,408 (2,508)   -37   F+5   C80, F44"

How does one lose votes in a recount, as outlined above with Coleman losing 42 and Franken 37?

Coleman has challenged four ballots, Franken has challenged three.  These can be any type of ballot - a blank vote, an overvote, a Franken vote, a Barkley vote, etc.

As to the second question, most of this likely occurred by multiple scans of the same ballot.  As I mentioned earlier, the audit showed to me that very few of the blank ballots would actually be counted, so there was a decent probability it was whoever lost the least votes would win.

Of course, the challenges may change that.

If it is multiple counting of the same ballot, then the changes should be random no, rather than Franken having an advantage due to the dumb Democrat factor, i.e., dumbs who can't manage to mark their ballot on that portion of the ballot that causes the optical counting machine to get all hot and bothered, and count a vote?

It's more complicated than that, but theoretically yes.  I still suspect the blank votes that count will break for Franken. 

Of course, without an actual visual of challenged ballots, I have no clue as to what's going on with that issue.

Another wrench in measuring challenges is that both sides can challenge one ballot.  I have no clue whether it's counted twice or with the side that first challenged it.

[Sam Spade]

Hennepin is now at 25%.  Coleman ahead by 157.

[Sam Spade]

Some of the smaller counties that should be done today are starting to come in.  I will update this evening.

[Sam Spade]

SOS has it updated.

Coleman lead at 129 (-86).  360 challenged by Coleman, 375 challenged by Franken. 51%P counted, 42%V counted.  Still skews Coleman by about 3%.

I'll work through the numbers and update the table in a second.

[Sam Spade]

Ran out of room in the original post.  I'll probably have to split the results too.

Counties - No Results

Aitkin

Carlton

Marshall

Martin

Meeker

Renville

Counties - Recount Not Started

Becker (Nov. 24)

Benton (Nov. 21)

Blue Earth (Nov. 24)

Brown (Nov. 24)

Dodge (Dec. 1)

Goodhue (Nov. 24)

Jackson (Nov. 24)

Kanabec (Nov. 21)

Koochiching (Nov. 24)

Lac Qui Parle (Nov. 21)

Lake of the Woods (Nov. 24)

Le Sueur (Dec. 1)

Mahnomen (Nov. 21)

Mille Lacs (Nov. 21)

Mower (Nov. 24)

Rock (Dec. 3)

Scott (Dec. 3)

Sherburne (Nov. 25)

Stevens (Nov. 26)

Todd (Nov. 25)

Wadena (Nov. 21)

Waseca (Nov. 21)

Wilkin (Nov. 22)

Winona (Dec. 3)

Wright (Dec. 3)

[Sam Spade]

What's really funny is to notice to counties where the party's observer went a little nuts in challenging ballots... 

[Sam Spade]

StarTrib says 136

They appear to be ahead of the SoS right now, so this is the most current number.

How does a newspaper get the results before the agency in charge of counting the results?

Probably by talking to election officials in the local area.  For example, the Strib is 10% ahead of the SOS in Hennepin.

[Sam Spade]

is there any chance that we don't know the winner by January 6th?

Would only happen by major court order (such that can't be done in the weeks between finishing the recount and January 6th) and I consider the chances of that to be quite low.

[Sam Spade]

I've not really been following this all that closely... who's favoured to win now [qm].

Unless you know the content of each and every challenged ballot, we have no clue.