MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Meeker]

How can anyone know the partisan biases of those who can't mark their ballots properly?  One can assume they match their region, are more Dem, are old, or whatever. Who knows? I don't trust much projections here. I suspect given the ballot design, it is mostly old folks.

We know it's often new voters who haven't experienced the system before. And I don't think I need to tell you how new voters are voting this year.

[Meeker]

I agree with Sam except for #11 - I'd count that for Coleman.

[Meeker]

New ballots!

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/

Does anyone know if we'll be able to find out which of the challenged ballots were counted? I really want to know what ends up happening to Lizard People

[Meeker]

If they count Lizard People then they need to count Bachmen. Fair is fair.

Curious that two people would write-in Michelle Bachmann but not fill in the bubble

[Meeker]

1. Reject. I think the law is fairly clear.
2. Franken. Changing writing utensils isn't grounds for fraud.
3. Reject. Voter had originally voted for Coleman but then changed their minds upon further thought. It's a pretty clear "X".
4. Coleman (but must be in line with Lizard People decision).

[Meeker]

[Meeker]

BTW, the voter really wants change. Change=Obama. Obama=Democrat. Democrat=Franken.

Voter intent was clear.

[Meeker]

That voter also clearly likes humor. Al Franken is a humorist.

I bet the Coleman campaign challenged it though. Jackasses.

[Meeker]

Does anyone know which three counties are counting today?

[Meeker]

Star Tribune reports that the Franken campaign has "found" several hundred missing ballots around the state

[Meeker]

besides the people here that know about what happened there seem to think that it wasn't stolen

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

[Meeker]

besides the people here that know about what happened there seem to think that it wasn't stolen

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

Your guy lost, twice. Get over it.

[Meeker]

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Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

Your guy lost, twice. Get over it.

If you get over Bush winning twice (despite the 2000 result)
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Hey, if it'll finally shut Phil up about Rossi...

[Meeker]

Does anyone else take issue with determining voter intent based upon who they voted for in other races? Sure if someone voted for Democrats in every other race there's probably a good chance they voted for Franken, but is "They voted for these people, so they must have voted for this person" really a fair and accurate judgment call? It just seems like quite a jump for us to make.

I could maybe see the logic in using it as one of many factors, but even then I'd have some serious concerns...

[Meeker]

I'm really baffled by the Nate Silver hatred from Republicans. All he did was predict an election correctly.

[Meeker]

It's a good idea in theory, but I'd rather have a bunch of ridiculous ballots go challenged than a few ballots that are questionable go unchallenged because the challenger is fearful of retribution.

[Meeker]

The voter was probably trying to indicate that they were willing to vote for anyone but John McCain and Norm Coleman.

[Meeker]

I don't really see how him changing his prediction as more data becomes available is any different than one of us changing our Prediction Maps as more polling becomes available.

[Meeker]

I don't really see how him changing his prediction as more data becomes available is any different than one of us changing our Prediction Maps as more polling becomes available.

So then let's stop hailing him as some extraordinary genius with amazing predicting skills. Predictions become lose all value when you are able to revise them several times.

No one has ever claimed Silver is a genius at long-term predicting, Phil. Stop claiming otherwise.

[Meeker]

I don't really see how him changing his prediction as more data becomes available is any different than one of us changing our Prediction Maps as more polling becomes available.

So then let's stop hailing him as some extraordinary genius with amazing predicting skills. Predictions become lose all value when you are able to revise them several times.

No one has ever claimed Silver is a genius at long-term predicting, Phil. Stop claiming otherwise.

LOL

As if people here having been singing his praises for months. Give me a break!

Sigh... Phil, you're letting your irrational anger at him cloud your judgment.

No one has ever credited Silver with being good at forecasting what would happen in a week or a months time. What he is good at is analyzing the data that is currently presented to him. That's why he's so respected - not for being a psychic with a crystal ball.

[Meeker]

No one has ever credited Silver with being good at forecasting what would happen in a week or a months time. What he is good at is analyzing the data that is currently presented to him. That's why he's so respected - not for being a psychic with a crystal ball.

Uh huh. I'm sure you guys didn't get all excited when His Highness said Franken by eighteen votes.

Again Phil, at the time that's what the data suggested. The data changed, and thus the prediction changed.

And if you truly don't have a problem with Silver then the constant sarcasm and mocking of him is a rather bizarre way to show it.

[Meeker]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28226181/

Money quotes:

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[Meeker]

Watching the Canvassing Board is not for the faint of heart. Ritchie keeps referring to "the special stack of ballots underneath my napkins." Lord help us all.

[Meeker]

That AP story is probably heavily influencing the InTrade odds.

[Meeker]

It seemed to be city by city in alphabetical order. And they were only on the C's when they called it a day. Only on the C's of the Franken challenges.

They then proceeded to bitch out the Franken and Coleman lawyers about getting rid of frivolous challenges, but unless something really remarkable happens I don't see how they can possibly be done by Friday.

EDIT: They were on the C's in Hennepin County. So they did actually get a good chunk of the alphabet done today.