MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Franzl]

I'm all for destroying democracy, but only when it benefits me!

What, you say that if such things become routinized, it could eventually hurt my wishes in a big way (Gore)?  No....

this would be retaliation for Gore

Wouldn't Washington 2004 be retaliation for Gore?

well, no

we need a couple of smaller races to make up for a presidential election.

[Franzl]

I think, basically...that any election that's close enough...(meaning 0,0x%)....will always be called "stolen" by the losers....not much anyone can do about that.

The truth is...in extremely close elections....the winner isn't really determinable.

[Franzl]

Tomorrow is when the board looks over the challenged ballots.

Do you know how long it will take them to review them all?

[Franzl]

They should be done for Friday.

And then the "loser" will sue!

I'm not even sure there will be a suit......everything seems to have been conducted properly up until now.

[Franzl]

Franken now up 70-30 on Intrade.

excellent, I bought 25 Franken shares at 35 on Intrade.....that means if I can find a buyer right now, I win about $87.

scratch that, Coleman has gained ground again......not sure if I want to sell for 62.....

[Franzl]

Star Tribune says this ballot was ruled invalid? Really? There's a similar one just like that for Coleman that was supposedly thrown out.

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Bloomington_P7_challengedballot1.pdf

[Franzl]

After one hour of taking the lead, Franken is up by 89 votes according to theuptake.org. About 250 ballots still to go through today.

how many more in total?

[Franzl]

He's reading the three elections as:

-PA-13 2004
-Santorum 2006
-McCain in Pennsylvania 2008

Basically the three notorious ones that he blew big time.

the problem is, Phil didn't blow PA 2008, he never claimed McCain would win, even if he probably hoped and prayed for it.

[Franzl]

He's reading the three elections as:

-PA-13 2004
-Santorum 2006
-McCain in Pennsylvania 2008

Basically the three notorious ones that he blew big time.

the problem is, Phil didn't blow PA 2008, he never claimed McCain would win, even if he probably hoped and prayed for it.

He did roughly up until September and kept arguing that the polls were all wrong because of the power of the Almighty Bradley Effect or something. He then admitted Obama would win Pennsylvania but still kept arguing that it would be a lot closer than the polls showed and that he would do worse than Kerry in Philadelphia because of his anecdotal evidence. All of it of course ended up being garbage.

many people thought PA would be closer than the polls, myself included.

[Franzl]

He's reading the three elections as:

-PA-13 2004
-Santorum 2006
-McCain in Pennsylvania 2008

Basically the three notorious ones that he blew big time.

the problem is, Phil didn't blow PA 2008, he never claimed McCain would win, even if he probably hoped and prayed for it.

He did roughly up until September and kept arguing that the polls were all wrong because of the power of the Almighty Bradley Effect or something. He then admitted Obama would win Pennsylvania but still kept arguing that it would be a lot closer than the polls showed and that he would do worse than Kerry in Philadelphia because of his anecdotal evidence. All of it of course ended up being garbage.

many people thought PA would be closer than the polls, myself included.

So you're yet another believe in that Almighty All Powerful Bradley Effect?

not necessarily, although I thought PA would be more prone to it than many other states. That combined with McCain's constant campaigning....made me think Obama might do worse than people thought. You don't necessarily have to believe in the Bradley Effect to worry about it.

But if a state was going to underpoll McCain, I was pretty sure PA would be a likely one.