LA-04/POS: Internal poll shows Fleming and Carmouche about tied
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  LA-04/POS: Internal poll shows Fleming and Carmouche about tied
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Author Topic: LA-04/POS: Internal poll shows Fleming and Carmouche about tied  (Read 3034 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 21, 2008, 02:36:08 PM »

Public Opinion Strategies for John Fleming (11/17-18, likely voters):

John Fleming (R): 43
Paul Carmouche (D): 42

(MoE: ±4.9%)

There are a lot of unknowns about turnout here, particularly concerning the African-American turnout for this December 6th election. While the district is 33% black, SUSA pegs the black vote at 27% for this special election, and the POS poll split the difference at 30%. The Kitchens Group poll for Carmouche, interestingly, conservatively projected the black turnout to be 24%.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3999
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King
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2008, 05:51:17 PM »

POS is a good abbreviation for a poll of this caliber.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2008, 05:52:58 PM »

If a leaked POS "poll" is showing a tie, then this seat is in serious danger of falling.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2008, 05:54:39 PM »

Serious question: When is the last time an open seat in rural Louisiana (not LA-1 and LA-2) did NOT switch?

Also, who was the first Louisiana incumbent before Cazayoux to be defeated?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2008, 08:31:20 PM »

Serious question: When is the last time an open seat in rural Louisiana (not LA-1 and LA-2) did NOT switch?

LA-7 in 1996... if you ignore the fact that the incumbent had defected to the GOP before he retired. If you don't ignore that, then I think it's LA-4 in 1986.

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There were several victims of the awful redistricting of 1992; Clyde Holloway (R), Jerry Huckaby (D). If you ignore those, the answer is, I think, Buddy Leach (D) in 1980. Beaten by Buddy Roemer (also D then). Leach had been mired in a vote-rigging scandal.

May have missed someone, somewhere.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2008, 01:04:34 AM »

Serious question: When is the last time an open seat in rural Louisiana (not LA-1 and LA-2) did NOT switch?

LA-7 in 1996... if you ignore the fact that the incumbent had defected to the GOP before he retired. If you don't ignore that, then I think it's LA-4 in 1986.

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LA-07 was counted as a Democratic pickup in 1996.  Hayes switched in 1995 and John won the November runoff in 1996. 
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