2008 State Population Estimates

[Tender Branson]

A few states already provide January 1, April 1 or July 1, 2008 population estimates:

California (Jan. 1) 38.049.462 - up 490.022 from Jan. 1, 2007 or +1.3%

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-4_2001-07/documents/E-4_2008%20Internet%20Version.xls

Oregon (July 1) 3.791.075 - up 45.620 from July 1, 2007 or +1.2%

http://www.pdx.edu/media/p/r/PrelimPopEst2008co_state.pdf

Washington (April 1) 6.587.600 - up 99.600 from April 1, 2007 or +1.5%

http://www.ofm.wa.gov/news/release/2008/080702.asp

Utah (July 1) 2.757.779 - up 58.225 from July 1, 2007 or +2.2%

http://governor.utah.gov/dea/UPEC/AllUPECData081120.xls

...

Population growth is down from 3.2% to 2.2% in Utah, from 1.5% to 1.2% in Oregon and from 1.8% to 1.5% in Washington.

Population growth is up from 1.2% to 1.3% in California.

The official US Census Bureau Estimates are out in December.

[Tender Branson]

The official US Census Bureau Estimates are out in December.

Do you think we'll see faster growth in Michigan and Ohio, now that people are stuck in place instead of having greener pastures to try in the southwest and south?

If they are not moving to North/South Florgiaclina, Texas or West or even Canada, they probably stayed in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Michigan had a population decline between July 2006 and 2007 (-30.000) but I expect that Michigan's population will only have declined slightly between July 2007 and 2008 or even stagnated.

Florida's population for example only grew by 127.000 between April 2007 and April 2008, or by 0.7%, despite growing by almost 2% in the previous years.

What's also interesting:

"Population growth is forecast to slow further over the current year to 0.40% (74,686 net new residents)."

Florida has about 240.000 births each year and 170.000 deaths, which means net migration in Florida will be ZERO from April 2008 to April 2009.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr56/nvsr56_21.pdf

http://edr.state.fl.us/conferences/population/FDEC0810_Summary.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, July 2008 population estimates were released for Arizona:

As of July 1, 2008 AZ had 6.629.455 inhabitants, compared with 6.500.194 on July 1, 2007.

That's a growth rate of 2.0%, down from 3.1% between July 2006 and July 2007.

http://www.azcommerce.com/doclib/econinfo/FILES/2008AZestimates.pdf

http://www.azcommerce.com/doclib/econinfo/FILES/EEC-07.pdf

http://www.azcommerce.com/doclib/econinfo/FILES/EEC-06.pdf

[Tender Branson]

There will be an shift in growth due to economic slowdown. I expect both a slowdown in interstate emigration and external immigration. It's worth looking at the reapportionment bubble states from the 2007 estimates. I had these projected as the last 5 states to get a seat, and then the next five that just missed:

Seat 431  AZ (10)
Seat 432  PA (18)
Seat 433  TX (36)
Seat 434  MN (
Seat 435  OR (6)

Seat 436  WA (10)
Seat 437  NY (28)
Seat 438  MO (9)
Seat 439  SC (7)
Seat 440  IL (19)

Does this make PA and MN safer? Does it put AZ and TX at risk of there current projected gains?

I wonder if the Census officials will have enough money on April 1, 2010 to conduct the Census effectively, or will they be underfunded because of the (continuing) economic worries ?

Or do they have a fixed budget for the 2010 Census ?

[Tender Branson]

There will be an shift in growth due to economic slowdown. I expect both a slowdown in interstate emigration and external immigration.

That might be true.

We are already seeing previously fast growing states like AZ, NV, WA, OR, UT, FL and GA decelerate in growth.

Additionally, I've recently read that Mexican emigration is down more than 40% compared with 2006. In 2006 more than 1.2 Mio. Mexicans emigrated from their country vs. 800.000 in 2007.

In the first quarter of 2008, the number of people emigrating was 1/5 lower than a year earlier. Also, more (illegal) immigrants are now heading back to their home countries, because of the bad economy in the US.

Just yesterday there was an atricle in the Rocky Mountain News about it:

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/dec/13/immigrants-head-home-as-jobs-dry-up/

[Tender Branson]

When will the 2008 census estimates be released?  The Census Bureau's press release announcing the highlights of the 2007 estimates was released at 12:01 a.m. EST Thursday, December 27, 2007, and Polidata's press release with their 2010 apportionment projections was embargoed until 12:00 a.m. that same date.  See also muon2's Census Estimates for 2007 -> 2010 Apportionment thread started at 1 a.m. on that date.  Will all this happen on the 27th again this year, or will it happen on a different date?  (muon2 started his 2005 and 2006 on December 22 of those respective years, with the Census Bureau's press release in 2005 at least being released on 12:01 a.m. on that day.)

I think the July 1, 2008 state estimates are likely to be released until next Friday.

[Tender Branson]

Highest Domestic Immigration:

Texas 140.862
North Carolina 98.074
Arizona 62.980
Georgia 56.674
South Carolina 49.736
Washington 40.588
Colorado 36.878
Tennessee 31.198
Oregon 24.756
Utah 17.605

Highest Domestic Emigration:

Pennsylvania   -11.462
Connecticut   -14.985
Massachusetts   -18.675
Maryland   -32.161
Ohio   -49.752
Illinois   -52.349
New Jersey   -56.208
Michigan   -109.257
New York   -126.209
California   -144.061

I've heard that Texas has very nice bancruptcy laws. Now all the indebted investment crooks are fleeing to that state ...

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina's population is really growing. I bet by 2010 NC will be larger then GA.

There's a slight chance that NC passes MI, but I doubt that the state will catch GA in the 2010 Census.

[Tender Branson]

So is someone going to do an EV map for 2012 with these new numbers and growth rates?

I'm sure Muon will calculate it soon ...

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina's population is really growing. I bet by 2010 NC will be larger then GA.

There's a slight chance that NC passes MI, but I doubt that the state will catch GA in the 2010 Census.

I project that MI will still have about half a million more people than NC in 2010. It's hard to see an estimate be off by that much to put NC ahead of MI.

There are always a few surprises. If MI shows a slightly bigger decline from 2000-2010 and the Census shows a population of about 9.8 Mio. and NC with a slightly higher growth, NC could pass MI by a few thousand people. If it's not by April 1, 2010 then certainly 1 year later.

[Tender Branson]

Have the 2008 Census Bureau estimates for counties and county subdivisions (cities, towns and townships in Maine, although a lot of unorganized minor civil divisions are grouped together) been released yet?  If so, where could I find them?

They will do so in March 2009 ...

http://www.census.gov/popest/topics