Twin Cities Election Results and Demographics

[ilikeverin]

I have data about the results for just about every election by Minnesota House district... so I'm not entirely sure what board to put this under.  Ah, well; most of the attention will likely be on the Senate results, hence I'm putting this thread here!

House districts:



Senate, overall:



Senate, Barkley %:



Scale: 8-10; 10-12; 12-14; 14-16; 16-18; 18-20; 20+

Well, so much for my sample-size-of-one "Barkley Got Disaffected Suburbanites' Votes" hypothesis... I'll try to get to work on my "Franken Alienated Suburbanites" hypothesis sometime in the future

Inquests?  Requests?

[ilikeverin]

Here's something interesting.  I took the two party vote totals for the presidential and senatorial races.  After adjusting for the statewide margins in the races (if this wasn't done, Coleman would've outperformed Franken in every state house district in the metro area ), I subtracted the McCain vote total from the Coleman vote total, to get this map:



Where yellow is Coleman underperforming McCain and green is Coleman overperforming McCain.  (white is within 0.5 points, and each band is one percentage point, so the lightest yellow is 0.5-1.5 points underperformance, the next one is 1.5-2.5 points underperformance, etc.)

In general, the metro had Coleman overperforming McCain by about 1 point (relative to the overall margin, so about 6.3% total).

I think that 45B is St. Louis Park, while St. Paul is more Coleman because he was mayor there.  This map seems to be in concordance with my "Franken Alienated Suburbanites" hypothesis (or perhaps Obama was just a particularly good candidate for the western suburbs)

Here's the Obama-McCain map overall:

[Hash]

Which House District is Eden Prairie?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Which House District is Eden Prairie?

All of 42B and about half of 42A.

[minionofmidas]

A set of two maps, (Coleman+Barkley) vs Franken and Coleman vs (Franken+Barkley), would amuse me greatly.

[ilikeverin]

Comin' right up!

But first, results by Congressional district:



Senate results, Coleman+Barkley:



Senate results, Franken+Barkley:



Senate results, Barkley vote apportioned by exit poll (though I rather highly doubt any poll that says like 7% of Minnesotans wouldn't've voted in the Senate race had it been a two-party race):

[they don't love you like i love you]

Something I find amazing is that Franken actually got 26% of voters who described themselves as White Evangelical/Born Again (Obama got 35%).

[minionofmidas]

What kind of place is 53A?

[they don't love you like i love you]

What kind of place is 53A?

Remember that North Oaks place? It contains half of it. The district is mostly based around Lino Lakes, your typical affluent suburb voting GOP mostly on that basis alone.

Interestingly while it was narrowly won by McCain, it has a DFL representative. He narrowly won in 2006 defeating the poster boy for the Club for Growth (basically someone so extreme even such a partisan district wouldn't re-elect him) and hung on this time around too.

[they don't love you like i love you]

BTW Pawlenty's old House seat (which I'm quite familiar with, its just south of where I work and I usually go there on my lunch break) flipped to D.

[minionofmidas]

Remember that North Oaks place?

No. (wikis) "10 miles north of Saint Paul in Ramsey County in the U.S. state of Minnesota. Formerly a gated community that now posts private access signage, all land is owned by homeowners with the North Oaks Home Owners Association maintaining all roads, plowing, parks, facilities, and recreation trails." Ah yes. Rings a bell. You did a thread about it years ago.

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And yet Coleman outpolled Franken and Barkley combined? Wow.

[ilikeverin]

Just barely, by 0.17%.  For comparison, the Democrat won the State House district by 4.7%.

The State House member really seems to be the outlier, there; Coleman "only" outperformed state-margin-adjusted McCain by 3.3% (the gross tally was 49.6-48.7 McCain).

[they don't love you like i love you]

Remember that North Oaks place?

No. (wikis) "10 miles north of Saint Paul in Ramsey County in the U.S. state of Minnesota. Formerly a gated community that now posts private access signage, all land is owned by homeowners with the North Oaks Home Owners Association maintaining all roads, plowing, parks, facilities, and recreation trails." Ah yes. Rings a bell. You did a thread about it years ago.

Not years ago. A couple months ago it came up in a discussion with Torie about income and voting.

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And yet Coleman outpolled Franken and Barkley combined? Wow.

More amazing is that McCain won it. It's quite impressive the DFL holds any metro seat won by McCain, considering the partisanship of the area and the swing (Hell, Eden Prairie voted for Obama!)

Ha. The part of North Oaks in the district gave McCain only 53%. Yet it voted over 60% for Coleman and gave the Republican for State House almost 57%. This was also a Mark Kennedy precinct (by only two votes, but still). Sums the Presidential election up perfectly I'd say.

Looking at the 2008 and 2006 results, I can see that Phil Krinkie (the GOP incumbent in 2006, one of those "Public schools are socialism!" types) won North Oaks and the affluent parts of Lino Lakes pretty solidly. Same with the GOP challenger this year. Both lost because they got crushed in the middle class suburban areas. Another interesting factoid there.

[muon2]

Remember that North Oaks place?

No. (wikis) "10 miles north of Saint Paul in Ramsey County in the U.S. state of Minnesota. Formerly a gated community that now posts private access signage, all land is owned by homeowners with the North Oaks Home Owners Association maintaining all roads, plowing, parks, facilities, and recreation trails." Ah yes. Rings a bell. You did a thread about it years ago.

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And yet Coleman outpolled Franken and Barkley combined? Wow.

As I write this I'm directly across the street from the North Oaks part of 53A. I've walked in it many times and my visits to it go back over 30 years. The gates on the main entrance have been gone a long time, but this is still more of an "old money" community than some of the Republican exurbs of western Hennepin.

[ilikeverin]

Pay attention to the keys!  Educational data from 2000 by State House district; kudos and such to the Census Department...

No high school diploma:


HS diploma only:


Some college:


Associate's degree:


Bachelor's degree:


Grad school/professional degree:


At least a bachelor's degree:

[they don't love you like i love you]

Wow, over 25% where I live has no high school diploma?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wow, over 25% where I live has no high school diploma?

Why should that be surprising of an inner city area?

[Torie]

Wow, over 25% where I live has no high school diploma?

Why should that be surprising of an inner city area?

I think he is surprised because the Anglos in Minneapolis, Seattle and San Francisco have high levels of education relatively speaking vis and vis the balance of the fruited plain.

[they don't love you like i love you]

What I also find odd is the wide range. In fact, you can split the population here into four roughly equal parts: No HS diploma, only HS, some college, and bachelor's degree or higher. That's kind of unusual. And having a quarter of people where I live not graduate from high school just seems so alien to me considering my background.