The Factors Which Led to an Obama Win

[humder]

 I have been given a great essay question from my politics teacher: Analyse the factors which influenced the outcome of the 2008 presidential election.

 The economy and Bush are two major ones. What are your thoughts on this?

[Lunar]

Organizational dominance on the ground and internal cohesiveness of the Obama campaign would be my additional two other ones.

Obama's campaign contacted soooo many more swing voters than McCain's campaign did and through more direct means (neighbor-to-neighbor contact versus robocalls).  And Obama's campaign almost never leaked and was extremely effective for a number of reasons that had nothing to do with the economy or Bush.


edit:  Also, Obama's carefully constructed image as another big variable.  His name, race, and history were all part of his "Change" thingy.

[humder]

 Do you think Sarah Palin was a negative factor?

[NOVA Green]

You may wish to include a section on the Democratic primaries, and how it influenced the development of Obama's field organization. The lack of substantive disagreement between Hillary and Obama on most major policy issues also made it easier for Obama to unify the party base once the main issue in the general election shifted to the economy.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Do you think Sarah Palin was a negative factor?

she went from being America's sweetheart to a national laughingstock in three weeks, a meteoric rise and an epic fall perhaps unparalelled in modern American electoral politics.

[phk]

Hurricane Katrina

[Lincoln Republican]

Fundamentally, Obama offered America hope for a new and brighter tomorrow, capturing the imaginations of the populace with a message of real change.

He had the unique ability to transcend race and to bridge the generational divide.

This, combined with Obama's towering intellect, his exceptional oratorical skills, his natural charisma, and his abilities to define his vision for the future in a way the average individual could understand, in a country crying out for new and fresh leadership, made his appeal and his candidacy all but irresistable. 

[Padfoot]

You may wish to include a section on the Democratic primaries, and how it influenced the development of Obama's field organization. The lack of substantive disagreement between Hillary and Obama on most major policy issues also made it easier for Obama to unify the party base once the main issue in the general election shifted to the economy.

I think this is probably THE most important issue in this campaign.  Given the unpopularity of Bush and the fact that Democratic positions matched the majority of Americans on the major issues of the campaign, this should have been an easy win for any generic Dem.  However Obama being black, inexperienced, and new to the political scene swung the pendulum back to the GOP quite a bit IMO.  Malicious rumors about his religion weren't exactly helpful either, nor were some of the truths (Wright).

But the Democrats managed to save their candidate by forcing him to run a nationwide primary all the way through the early summer.  This gave Obama a tremendous ground game advantage in every battleground state and it offered a wider base of supporters to solicit monetary contributions from.  It also made the McCain camp nervous in places like North Dakota, Georgia, Montana, and Nebraska.  Obama was able to push the McCain campaign into defending these states because of his strong primary performances.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Do you think Sarah Palin was a negative factor?

According to the Exit Polls, Palin was a significant net asset to McCain.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Do you think Sarah Palin was a negative factor?

According to the Exit Polls, Palin was a significant net asset to McCain.

not really. It depends on which way you slice the data. In the CNN exit poll, 60% of voters thought Palin was not "qualified to be president if necessary," and they voted 82% for Obama. While she did help energize the Republican base, she also turned off a lot of independents, moderate Democrats, and Hillary women who otherwise might have voted for McCain.

Also, Palin hurt among key demographics in key states that McCain had to win, especially among Jews in Florida and Pennsylvania. Palin's church had hosted a speaker from Jews for Jesus, a group which elicits strong negative reactions from American Jewry. Her pastor had made comments about how suicide bombings were God's punishment for the Jews' rejection of Jesus. Furthermore, false rumors were spread that she was a Buchanan supporter or a member of the John Birch society.

In addition, her whole Real America vs Fake America nonsense turned off urban and suburban whites, who swung 9 points to Obama. Appalachian and Southern whites swung to McCain, despite the fact that he's in many ways a worse candidate for those regions than Bush was. Racism was a factor, but it really isn't that much more widespread in the South than it is in many Northern cities. If you're looking for an explanation as to why rural whites in the South swung Republican and working class whites in the North swung Democratic, that's a good place to start looking.

If she helped McCain, she helped him mainly in places where he didn't need it.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Do you think Sarah Palin was a negative factor?

Somewhat. But Senator McCain's selection of Governor Palin wasn't a significant factor in causing Obama to become 44th President of the United States. If anything, and I know they have already been mentioned, Obama's organisation and image, his ability to appeal to Independents which were considered more so friendlier for Senator McCain and of course both the economy and the disastrous presidency of George W. Bush contributed to Obama's victory.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Fundamentally, Obama offered America hope for a new and brighter tomorrow, capturing the imaginations of the populace with a message of real change.

He had the unique ability to transcend race and to bridge the generational divide.

This, combined with Obama's towering intellect, his exceptional oratorical skills, his natural charisma, and his abilities to define his vision for the future in a way the average individual could understand, in a country crying out for new and fresh leadership, made his appeal and his candidacy all but irresistable. 

I think Winfield nailed it here, and I'll add they ran the most flawless campaign possible....always always always "staying the course" and staying on message, and lastly they were more successful defining who McCain (true or not) than McCain was.

We have really witnessed brilliance along with history.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Do you think Sarah Palin was a negative factor?

According to the Exit Polls, Palin was a significant net asset to McCain.

not really. It depends on which way you slice the data. In the CNN exit poll, 60% of voters thought Palin was not "qualified to be president if necessary," and they voted 82% for Obama. While she did help energize the Republican base, she also turned off a lot of independents, moderate Democrats, and Hillary women who otherwise might have voted for McCain.

Also, Palin hurt among key demographics in key states that McCain had to win, especially among Jews in Florida and Pennsylvania. Palin's church had hosted a speaker from Jews for Jesus, a group which elicits strong negative reactions from American Jewry. Her pastor had made comments about how suicide bombings were God's punishment for the Jews' rejection of Jesus. Furthermore, false rumors were spread that she was a Buchanan supporter or a member of the John Birch society.

In addition, her whole Real America vs Fake America nonsense turned off urban and suburban whites, who swung 9 points to Obama. Appalachian and Southern whites swung to McCain, despite the fact that he's in many ways a worse candidate for those regions than Bush was. Racism was a factor, but it really isn't that much more widespread in the South than it is in many Northern cities. If you're looking for an explanation as to why rural whites in the South swung Republican and working class whites in the North swung Democratic, that's a good place to start looking.

If she helped McCain, she helped him mainly in places where he didn't need it.

Lets look at the question.

Was McCain choice of Palin a Factor in Your Vote?

60% of respondents said Yes, and of those 60%, the majority (56%) voted for McCain.

Now, of the 33% who said that the McCain Choice of Palin was NOT a factor, the majority of them voted for Obama.

[humder]

 Do you think Colin Powell was a major factor?

[Lincoln Republican]

Do you think Colin Powell was a major factor?

In my view, no, it was definitely not a major factor, if a factor at all.  McCain had the endorsement of, I believe, five former Secretaries of State.  That had no impact either.

Endorsements usually mean very little.  Voters do not make up their minds on who to vote for based on endorsements.  Endorsements are only useful for the publicity they may generate for a fleeting moment, or, in the case of Powell, becoming a topic of discussion on the news shows for a few days.

The Powell endorsement did not bring wavering independents to Obama.  The desire for change and Obama's perceived ability to better deal with the faltering economy did that.  I doubt as well it had any impact with Republicans.

 

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Do you think Colin Powell was a major factor?

No.  His impact was extremely minor, in my opinion.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Do you think Colin Powell was a major factor?

No.  His impact was extremely minor, in my opinion.

he had an impact, albeit a minor one. His statement against Muslim-bashing was a powerful one, and one Obama himself couldn't make.