U.K General Election 2005

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought it made some sence to start this thread afresh.

[Umengus]

I hope that Blair will lose and libdem will win. The last poll was good for libdem isn't it?

I think that the best thing for Blai is that tories leader is not attractive: UK is not a far-right country. But I'm not an expert.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I hope that Blair will lose and libdem will win. The last poll was good for libdem isn't it?

I think that the best thing for Blai is that tories leader is not attractive: UK is not a far-right country. But I'm not an expert.

"Good" is relative... they'll win around 25% of the total vote in the election (I think), which is an improvement over the 18% they got last time, but nowhere near Government level.
They've picked up a lot of middle class voters, but have failed to make much ground amoung working class voters...

They've swung to the right recently... but have cleverly masked this with rhetoric and policy gimmiks... as an example they are proposing a slight increase in income tax for the rich... BUT all they intend to use the money for is to "cut Government waste".
Bizzare.

[Jens]

As usual I'm hoping for an election without any party getting a majority. I am not particually fond of Blair, can't stand the Tories and the LibDem's economical politics is not my cup of tea.
A government with Labour and LibDems is my far of dream (Could be the way to chance the electoral system to proportional. When a party gets 25% of the votes and 3,5% of the mandates, it's starting to look like the "Rotten Boroughs")

[Democratic Hawk]

I hope that Blair will lose and libdem will win. The last poll was good for libdem isn't it?

I think that the best thing for Blai is that tories leader is not attractive: UK is not a far-right country. But I'm not an expert.

The Lib Dems? Does any one know what they actually stand for? Seems to me they spread one zeal to diasaffected Tory voters and another to disaffected Labour voters.

Latest ICM poll in The Guardian has Labour on 36%, Conservatives on 32% and Lib Dems on 22%.

Yesterday's Sun characterised them as to the left of 'Old Labour' in the 1970s, while the Daily Mirror characterised them as 'Orange' Tories.

A frightening prospect either way. They couldn't even 'unite' on fox hunting (though it was a free vote) with their urban MPs voting for a ban and their rural MPs voting against.

I'm predicting a Labour majority of between 70 - 100.

Britain is best off under Blair and the US would be better off under Kerry.

Dave

Sorry for being partisan Al!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest ICM poll:

Labour: 36%
Tories: 32%
LibDem: 22%
UKIP: 3%
Nat: 3%
Grn: 2%

No .pdf yet

[Jens]

Latest ICM poll:

Labour: 36%
Tories: 32%
LibDem: 22%
UKIP: 3%
Nat: 3%
Grn: 2%

No .pdf yet

Any idea on seats?

(In case of proportional rep. it would be:
Labour: 242
Cons: 216
Libdem: 148
UKIP: 20
Nat: 20
Green: 13)

[AuH2O]

The Tories are such an embarassment of a party I can't believe anyone can vote for them in good conscience.

Basically, Britain has a Socialist Party (Labour), a Social Democratic Party (Tories) and No Purpose Other Than Having a Cushy Job Party (LibDem). What a set of choices.

[Tory]

The Tories are such an embarassment of a party I can't believe anyone can vote for them in good conscience.

Basically, Britain has a Socialist Party (Labour), a Social Democratic Party (Tories) and No Purpose Other Than Having a Cushy Job Party (LibDem). What a set of choices.

No, we have a party of the poor and the hipsters(Labour), party of the middle class(Lib Dems), and the party of the rich and the elderly(Tories).

The Tories used to control that middle class vote as well, but the Lib Dems have stolen it from us.

England needs to dump Scotland and Wales. That will drastically decrease the number of Labour MP's, making the two real parties about even again, and slightly decreasing the amount of LD seats.

[Umengus]

The Tories are such an embarassment of a party I can't believe anyone can vote for them in good conscience.

Basically, Britain has a Socialist Party (Labour), a Social Democratic Party (Tories) and No Purpose Other Than Having a Cushy Job Party (LibDem). What a set of choices.

With Tony Blair, Labour party is not a socialist party but a centrist-right party. Conservative is a hard-right party and libdem splitted with labour party because labour party was too left but today libdems are more left than labour party. The last right swing of the libdem is very stupid: There is a "boulevard" to left (working class, pacifist,...) but unfortunatly they are stupid to not see that.  
But it's just my opinion...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tories are such an embarassment of a party I can't believe anyone can vote for them in good conscience.

Basically, Britain has a Socialist Party (Labour), a Social Democratic Party (Tories) and No Purpose Other Than Having a Cushy Job Party (LibDem). What a set of choices.

With Tony Blair, Labour party is not a socialist party but a centrist-right party. Conservative is a hard-right party and libdem splitted with labour party because labour party was too left but today libdems are more left than labour party. The last right swing of the libdem is very stupid: There is a "boulevard" to left (working class, pacifist,...) but unfortunatly they are stupid to not see that.  
But it's just my opinion...

Some articles from todays Guardian:

You Don't Fool Me

LibDems have been "hijacked"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM have released the .pdf (yay!) and I've had a read through. The poll shows:

1. Labour's support lead amoung C2's and DE's
2. Tories lead amoung AB's and C1's
3. LibDems strongest amoung AB's and C1's. They have still failed to make a breakthrough with Working Class voters
4. UKIP strongest amoung C1's

[Jens]

ICM have released the .pdf (yay!) and I've had a read through. The poll shows:

1. Labour's support lead amoung C2's and DE's
2. Tories lead amoung AB's and C1's
3. LibDems strongest amoung AB's and C1's. They have still failed to make a breakthrough with Working Class voters
4. UKIP strongest amoung C1's

Al, pleace elaborate for us poor foreigners. What's C2, DE, AB (Probably not the Danish football club by that name ) ect )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM have released the .pdf (yay!) and I've had a read through. The poll shows:

1. Labour's support lead amoung C2's and DE's
2. Tories lead amoung AB's and C1's
3. LibDems strongest amoung AB's and C1's. They have still failed to make a breakthrough with Working Class voters
4. UKIP strongest amoung C1's

Al, pleace elaborate for us poor foreigners. What's C2, DE, AB (Probably not the Danish football club by that name ) ect )

AB=Upper Middle Class
C1=Lower Middle Class
C2=Skilled Working Class
DE=Semi Skilled/Unskilled Working Class

It's more than a bit vauge, not very accurate and illogical (C2's are more like DE's than C1's).
I prefer:

I-Professional
II-Managerial/Technical
III-Skilled (non-manual)
IIIM-Skilled (manual)
IV-Partly Skilled
V-Unskilled

As it's more accurate/logical/detailed. Tragically, pollsters like using the ABCDE system...

[Keystone Phil]

I've asked this before but seeing that poll, I figured asking again wouldn't be such a big deal: Do the Conservatives have any chance at picking up enough seats to win a majority?

[Tory]

I've asked this before but seeing that poll, I figured asking again wouldn't be such a big deal: Do the Conservatives have any chance at picking up enough seats to win a majority?

The electoral system in this country is rigged. For the Conservatives to win a majority in parliament we would need to win about 5 or 6% more of the popular vote than Labour. That will not happen in the next 15 years.

It's the same way in Japan. The LDP has held on to power because the consituencies there are set up to favour rural areas. Since rural areas are conservative and vote LDP, LDP has been able to lose the popular vote but hold on to great majorities in thier parliament many times.

It's the opposite here. The consitiuencies are set up to favour London and our industrial heartlands. These places tend to go Labour.

[Tory]

To further help you understand, here is a map of the seats won in the last election:


You can see all  of the little constituencies in the Northern Midlands, in the Newcastle area, and in South Wales. Those are very industrial areas that are traditionally socialist. In most cases they do not contain more people than other much larger constituencies. That's how the system is so biased towards Labour. London is conservative in it's centre as you can see, but all of it's inner suburbs are Labour. The outer suburbs in the southwest are Lib Dem. In the eighties the Conservatives controlled most of those London suburbs. If we were to regain power we would need to take London back, as that's where elections are won and lost.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To further help you understand, here is a map of the seats won in the last election:

Isn't all that red nice on the eyes?

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"Newcastle area"? Bah! It's the North East! Mackems will never bow to to Newcastle Imperialism!

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A result of Class Politics mostly

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East End is always Red though... although the Tories did O.K there in the '80's, that was a fluke.

[Jens]

I've asked this before but seeing that poll, I figured asking again wouldn't be such a big deal: Do the Conservatives have any chance at picking up enough seats to win a majority?

The electoral system in this country is rigged. For the Conservatives to win a majority in parliament we would need to win about 5 or 6% more of the popular vote than Labour. That will not happen in the next 15 years.

It's the opposite here. The consitiuencies are set up to favour London and our industrial heartlands. These places tend to go Labour.

Is it just me or didn't the Conservatives benefit heavily from this system in the eighties getting 42-44 % of the votes but between 51 to 61% of the MP's. The Conservative Party had 18 years to change that system but didn't because at that time they benefitted from the FPTP system. As the French say: C'est la vie  

[NYGOP]

Which seat went to the conservatives by the largest margin?

[Tory]

Which seat went to the conservatives by the largest margin?

I'm sure Al could tell you

[cwelsch]

I'd probably vote for the LibDems.  Normally I'd be too worried the anti-war idiots would screw up foreign policy and that they were all just moderate socialists instead of strident socialists, but all the leftists whining and fear-mongering makes me re-consider.  Anybody who scares the statists that much has to be doing SOMETHING right.

Other than that, I might go with the Tories.  Depended on the individual candidates.  I wouldn't vote Labor, even if the candidate was decent.

[cwelsch]

Oh, and I might vote UKIP if they had a candidate not currently enrolled in a mental asylum.  I would also consider Liberal if I were in a district where they competed, but I would not likely vote for them.

[cwelsch]

ICM have released the .pdf (yay!) and I've had a read through. The poll shows:

1. Labour's support lead amoung C2's and DE's
2. Tories lead amoung AB's and C1's
3. LibDems strongest amoung AB's and C1's. They have still failed to make a breakthrough with Working Class voters
4. UKIP strongest amoung C1's

Al, pleace elaborate for us poor foreigners. What's C2, DE, AB (Probably not the Danish football club by that name ) ect )

AB=Upper Middle Class
C1=Lower Middle Class
C2=Skilled Working Class
DE=Semi Skilled/Unskilled Working Class

It's more than a bit vauge, not very accurate and illogical (C2's are more like DE's than C1's).
I prefer:

I-Professional
II-Managerial/Technical
III-Skilled (non-manual)
IIIM-Skilled (manual)
IV-Partly Skilled
V-Unskilled

As it's more accurate/logical/detailed. Tragically, pollsters like using the ABCDE system...

Sweet savior in a pickle jar.  That's scary.

Which ones are the Brahmins and which are the untouchables?

PS - I only say because I've seen it around a few times, 'amoung' isn't a word.

[cwelsch]

And, hooray, for my fourth post in a row (I promise to shut up after this) I think the UK electoral map, at least for England, reminds me of Virginia:



Mostly it's the way counties are a little squiggly, about the same size, and have dots in the middle and at the edges for cities and towns.