U.K General Election 2005

[Peter]

Indeed, it's like jumping over a 1-foot garden fence...

Hmm, I wonder why that tiny constituency is there...

Its an island, and really its one of the most bizarre places in Britain from most accounts I've heard. Shops don't open on Sunday and I have a feeling most of the island is catholic. They wouldn't be happy if they got bolted to some other constituency off the mainland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hmm, I wonder why that tiny constituency is there...

Load of remote Islands off the NW coast of Scotland. First language of most people there is Gaelic. It's even more Calvinist than North Wales (swings in playgrounds get padlocked on Sunday). Voted Labour from 1935 to 1970, SNP from 1970 'till 1987 when normal service resumed and Labour regained it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have a feeling most of the island is catholic.

Don't go telling that to people in Lewis (the largest island) whatever you do... people there really *do* think that the Pope is the "Whore of Babylon".

When she was growing up my Mum knew someone from Lewis; on Sunday's the Father would read the Bible to the family. That's all they did. If any of the kids played on a Sunday, the Father would beat them up with a belt.

[freek]

I have a feeling most of the island is catholic.

Don't go telling that to people in Lewis (the largest island) whatever you do... people there really *do* think that the Pope is the "Whore of Babylon".

When she was growing up my Mum knew someone from Lewis; on Sunday's the Father would read the Bible to the family. That's all they did. If any of the kids played on a Sunday, the Father would beat them up with a belt.

That sounds a lot like the people who vote SGP here in the Netherlands.

[CO-OWL]

Your Electoral Commission still kicks the cr*p out of the legislative redistricting we have here...

Its not a difficult hurdle to clear.

On a related note:
The boundary changes in Scotland have not rid us of the Western Isles as a single constituency with its tiny electorate of 20,000

Reminds me of the rotten borough problem..

I remember reading that in the 18th century there existed a "constituency" (Old Sarum?) with exactly ZERO voters.
Whoever owned the place could choose the MP.

Can anyone confirm this?

[Silent Hunter]

That's true. I think it was actually one or two voters.

[minionofmidas]

I have a feeling most of the island is catholic.

Don't go telling that to people in Lewis (the largest island) whatever you do... people there really *do* think that the Pope is the "Whore of Babylon".

When she was growing up my Mum knew someone from Lewis; on Sunday's the Father would read the Bible to the family. That's all they did. If any of the kids played on a Sunday, the Father would beat them up with a belt.

80%+ of the people belong to the Free Church of Scotland, a breakaway presbyterian kirk. Also pretty strong (but nowhere as strong) on Skye and in parts of the mainland Highlands.

Pete: Did they keep Orkney & Shetland?
And: Do you have a link to the boundary changes?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

80%+ of the people belong to the Free Church of Scotland, a breakaway presbyterian kirk. Also pretty strong (but nowhere as strong) on Skye and in parts of the mainland Highlands.

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Are they the "Wee Free's" or are the "Wee Free's" a splinter group of a splinter group?

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Yes

[minionofmidas]

80%+ of the people belong to the Free Church of Scotland, a breakaway presbyterian kirk. Also pretty strong (but nowhere as strong) on Skye and in parts of the mainland Highlands.

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Are they the "Wee Free's" or are the "Wee Free's" a splinter group of a splinter group?

I haven't got a clue. Who are the "Wee Frees"?

[Peter]

New Constituency Map

Be advised that the above page is an adobe acrobat file and may take a while to download on slower connections.

Really they ought to bolt Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles together, although it would only bring the electorate up to 53,000. It would make for an interesting LD/Lab marginal though.

I'm surprised that Catholic hating people elect a Labour MP given the Labour party's traditional ties to Catholicism

[Filuwaúrdjan]

80%+ of the people belong to the Free Church of Scotland, a breakaway presbyterian kirk. Also pretty strong (but nowhere as strong) on Skye and in parts of the mainland Highlands.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Are they the "Wee Free's" or are the "Wee Free's" a splinter group of a splinter group?

I haven't got a clue. Who are the "Wee Frees"?

Free Church... I think it's the one you said.

[minionofmidas]

Thank yer, Pete.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm surprised that Catholic hating people elect a Labour MP given the Labour party's traditional ties to Catholicism

Labour has even stronger ties to Non Conformists than Catholics. Western Isles are also poor.

[minionofmidas]

I'm surprised that Catholic hating people elect a Labour MP given the Labour party's traditional ties to Catholicism

Labour has even stronger ties to Non Conformists than Catholics. Western Isles are also poor.

Most important industry is still cottage industrial weaving. Good ol' Harris Tweed - handmade, partly by child labour, in the Western Isles. Ever wondered why Kilts are so darn expensive - this is why. And not all of the money ends up where it belongs.

[patrick1]

These are my projections (made shortly before Hartlepool) for the election:

UK Totals

Seats to change hands

Ulster is no longer part of the U.K.?  I'm not complaining but I will take it upon myself to make some tentative predictions for the 18 constituencies in the North of Ireland.  This is assuming that neither side boycotts the election or something similar.
key of abreviations: SF-Sinn Fein-radical nationalist/left wing socialist-a party made up of Catholics it is traditionally linked as political arm of the I.R.A.  Calls for the end of British or foreign 'occupationn" and reunification with Republic of Ireland.  SDLP-Social Democratic and Labour Party-Christian Democrat and Nationalist-founded by Catholics and protestants it is now an overwhelmingly Catholic party that advocates a more gradual approach to re-unification with Ireland. SDLP is generally centre left.  D.U.P.-Democratic Unionist Party- is a hardline Unionist party that is traditionally anti-Catholic in nature and leadership.  The party rejects the Good Friday peace agreement due to the inclusion of "terrorists" Sinn Fein.  D.U.P. tends to be left economically and extreme right on social issues. UUP-Ulster Unionist Party-Protestant Unionist party that supported peace accord.  Traditionally it votes with Conservative Party-They tend centre right economically and socially.  This synopsis is just a broad generalization intended to give someone not familiar a basic idea of what parties are about.
There are many other parties but none of which stand to win seats.  Largest is Alliance Party-non sectarian-mostly party of more wealthy Protestants and some Catholics.  Most like Lib. Dems in Britain proper.   

East Belfast- safe D.U.P.
North Belfast- lean D.U.P. but if D.U.P. and UUP split their vote evenly enough  Sinn Fein could win this seat
West Belfast-Safe Sinn Fein-Gerry Adams' seat
South Belfast- safe UUP
North Antrim-safe DUP, Ian Paisley's seat
South Antrim-toss up-currently UUP, I predict D.U.P.
East Antrim- toss up currently UUP-I predict D.U.P.
North Down-lean UUP, hold for UUP
South Down-safe SDLP
Upper Bann-toss up-Trimble's-UUP leaders seat-I predict that UUP holds on barely
Newry and Armargh-currently SDLP-I predict SF
Lagan Valley-??? Donaldson elected UUP but has since changed to DUP.  I don't know how his district will react
Strangford-strong DUP
West Tyrone-strong SF
Mid Ulster-strong SF, Martin McGuinness seat
Fermanagh and South Tyrone-  traditional swing district- Sinn Fein holds seat and should maintain.
Foyle-John Hume-SDLP leader seat is retiring- lean SDLP, posssibility for a Sinn Fein upset
East Londonderry-Safe DUP

8-D.U.P., 5 Sinn Fein. 3 U.U.P and 2 SDLP.  UUP was once largest party I see their continuing downfall.  The districts and actually demographics of N.I. are such that I do not see the 11 for "Protestant parties" and 7 seats for Catholics changing.  Current Ulster population is about 54% "Protestant" 46% "Catholic"
There are also many people who don't identify with either religion but this is probably a good breakdown on sympathies as the vast majority of Protestant wish to remain part of U.K. and most Catholics want to become part of Ireland.
Again this is a generalization.

[WMS]

Thanks to all the U.K.-ers for the information! And thanks to patrick1 for that look at N. Ireland, which might as well be its own country separate from both the U.K and Ireland...

[Peter]

Ulster is no longer part of the U.K.?  I'm not complaining but I will take it upon myself to make some tentative predictions for the 18 constituencies in the North of Ireland.  This is assuming that neither side boycotts the election or something similar.

I didn't do any predictions for NI for two reasons:

1. Making intelligent predictions about NI politics is a contradiction in terms.
2. The results in these seats would have no bearing either on who formed a government, or the size of the majority.

[Silent Hunter]

The NI parties can be important with a minority government.
1979- One NI MP abstaining swung the no-confidence vote against Callaghan (it ended 311-310).
1995- Major had to rely on the UUP because of the 'whipless wonders'.

[MattyNeth]

Hi,

Newbie here. Living in Bournemouth East I must get a letter/pamphlet from the Lib Dems every couple of weeks. Conservative majority is about 5,000 and the Dems are very confident of turning this over. At the council elections Libs took over the Bournemouth Council including most of the wards in Bournemouth East. Bournemouth West is mainly retirement wards and heavily Tory.

Would not be surprised to see Bournemouth East swing

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hi,

Newbie here. Living in Bournemouth East I must get a letter/pamphlet from the Lib Dems every couple of weeks. Conservative majority is about 5,000 and the Dems are very confident of turning this over. At the council elections Libs took over the Bournemouth Council including most of the wards in Bournemouth East. Bournemouth West is mainly retirement wards and heavily Tory.

Would not be surprised to see Bournemouth East swing

Interesting... I know most of Dorset very well, but I've never actually been to Bournemouth.

[Huckleberry Finn]

a Social Democratic Party (Tories)

Oh well....

That they support universal healthcare doesn't make them social democrats. The biggest (and in fact only!) reason that I can't support Republicans is their position on healthcare.

I can't stand Blair. I hope that Torys will win.

[Ben.]

a Social Democratic Party (Tories)

I can't stand Blair. I hope that Torys will win.

Not a hope... despite every thing Blair and Labour still have a very solid lead over the Tories, while the Conservatives also face pressure from the LDs in some seats.

[Democratic Hawk]

a Social Democratic Party (Tories)

I can't stand Blair. I hope that Torys will win.

Not a hope... despite every thing Blair and Labour still have a very solid lead over the Tories, while the Conservatives also face pressure from the LDs in some seats.

The Tories haven't a prayer. The FPTP system, which once served them so well, now serves Labour well

Dave

[??????????]

I'd vote for whoever the BNP candidate is. hehe

[English]

I'd vote for whoever the BNP candidate is. hehe

Do you realise what the BNP stand for? Apart from the obvious (extreme racism and anti-semetism), they're economically pretty far left.