2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[Sam Spade]

I'm not interested in rating right now, just making observations...

Alabama* (Mike Riley - R) Alabama open seat state races are usually interesting and fairly competitive.

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R) If the economy collapses, maybe.  But probably not - this is Alaska after all.  Of course, her national prominence has probably ended chances of a Ted Stevens pre-2008 style win, but I can't see it.  Besides, does the AK Dems have anyone to run?

Arizona* (presumably Jan Brewer - R) Even though she's a conservative R, people are overrating this race unless she's a nutter as Gov or someone prominent decides to challenge in the primary (Shadegg?).

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D) The AR GOP is in such shape, that, well...  Plus, I haven't seen any polls to indicate that Beebe's popularity is weak, so...

California* (Arnold Schwarzenegger - R) California may be bankrupt by the time we get to this election, so who will the voters take it out on?  Probably the Rs, but California often does what we don't think it will do.  Besides, there are more Dems to jockey for this seat...

Colorado (Bill Ritter - D) CO GOP is in the same sorry shape as before and last time I noticed, Ritter's approvals were high.  I expect them to expend more energy against Salazar, frankly.

Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R) If she wants to run for re-election, I don't see any reason why she should lose, excepting economic disaster (which is a possibility - see New York).  Haven't seen her popularity contest ratings here in a while, though...

Florida (Charlie Crist - R) Charlie seems to be exceptionally popular and exceptionally good at pandering to everyone here.  Of course, it doesn't hurt that your opponent is the FL Dem party.

Georgia* (Sonny Perdue - R) Simple demographics say that Republicans have to be favored fairly strongly here, and I don't even know the particulars of who's on the bench on their side.

Hawaii* (Linda Lingle - R) Since no Republican won this job before Lingle, I can't see how things could change...

Idaho (Butch Otter - R) Otter got a challenge last time.  I doubt we'll see any challenges this time.

Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D) The IL GOP is incompetent.  Blago is about as popular as anthrax.  One of these things must give.  Of course, Blago could decide not to run for a third term and pass it off to another Cook County crony - who knows...

Iowa (Chet Culver - D) Most Iowa governors get second terms.  Nothing has shown me yet that Culver will be any different.

Kansas* (Kathleen Sebelius - R)  I hear Brownback is interested.  Brownback is annoying as all get-up, but I can't see how he loses in what will likely be a GOP-favorable year.  I mean, who's the best potential Dem out there who could beat him in a open seat race?

Maine (John Baldacci - D) The ME GOP is not exactly the epitome of a well-run organization and you have all those weird Maine independents running around causing trouble.  So, I have to give Dems the advantage.  Tom Allen, I guess (although his performance against Collins was worse than pathetic).  I defer to Kevinstat here.

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D) O'Malley is not particularly popular nor particularly competent, but the MD GOP is a joke.  If Ehrlich decided to run again, it could be interesting - since he was almost assuredly taken out by the 2006 wave.

Massachusetts (Deval Patrick - D) Patrick has improved his ratings a bit from earlier this year, but this is one place where I wonder if Obama being President might have a slight negative impact.  Of course, the MA GOP has to get someone competent running first, and that may prove quite a chore.

Michigan* (Jennifer Granholm - D) Probably a pure toss-up and then some.

Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R) Will Pawlenty run for a third term?  Otherwise, Dems would be favored, but not by *that* much if its a GOP favorable year.

Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R) Heineman is beyond safe if he wants another term.

Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) I suspect Gibbons gets primaried or simply decides not to run again.  He's probably a dead duck should he get through, though a lot can happen in two years.  Otherwise, let's see who the candidates are here...

New Hampshire (John Lynch - D) See Nebraska.

New Mexico* (probably Diane Denish - D) From what I know about New Mexico politics, Richardson is leaving Denish a pretty large mess in the upcoming couple of years, but I doubt voters take it out on her to begin with.  Besides, who will the NM GOP run?  It seems to me that Pat Lyons and Heather Wilson are their only formidable candidates, and Lyons has had a little scandal over the past few months and Heather is really fit for Washington.

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe.  Truthfully, a lot of what happens here may depend in how bad of a shape the economy is in come 2010.  After all, both his and Bloomberg's approvals have dropped about 10% the past few months.  And yes, if things look bad, Rudy will probably run.

Ohio (Ted Strickland - D) Strickland has been a highly effective centrist governor, lambasting his party when need be (and there's been plenty of times).  I think he's safe - the question is will he have coattails or anti-coattails?

Oklahoma* (Brad Henry - D) As has been noted before, Democrats have a bench here.  However, the environment will probably not be very favorable to them.  Can cockfighting become an issue again?

Oregon* (Ted Kulongoski - D) Democrats obviously have the better bench here.  Question for Republicans is whether Gordon Smith is interested...

Pennsylvania* (Ed Rendell - D)  Will the eight-year curse continue?  Kind of like Michigan, probably, in generic terms.

Rhode Island* (Don Carcieri - R) There are Republicans in Rhode Island?  Is Lincoln Chafee interested (oh wait, he's a Dem now)?  I get my drift.

South Carolina* (Mark Sanford - R) Democrats have a few possible candidates here, but demographics and surroundings probably favor the Republican.

South Dakota* (Mike Rounds - R) Only way this goes Democrat in my mind is if Rounds and Herseth-Sandlin decide to switch spots.

Tennessee* (Phil Bredesen - D) Both Lincoln Davis and Harold Ford are good candidates, but the TN GOP will probably put up a good candidate too and would be favored, I would think.

Texas (Rick Perry - R) Question is: Will Rick Perry run and hide when Hutchinson formally enters or will he battle?  In a GE, Hutchinson can't be beaten barring conservative 3rd party troublemaker, whereas I suspect people are tired of Rick Perry.  Of course, Dems, picking an urban city Texas mayor is the first step towards losing against anyone (hint, hint, wink, wink - Lunar).

Vermont (Jim Douglas - R) If Douglas can't be beaten in 2008, when can he be beaten?

Wisconsin* (Jim Doyle - D) Will Doyle run again (crappy approval ratings and all)?  What Republican will challenge him?  Could be interesting...

Wyoming* (Dave Freudenthal - D) Dems will probably need an act of God to keep this seat, just fyi...

[Sam Spade]

Why does no one seem to think Lt. Gov. Aiona could win in HI?  I remember a lot of talk about him in 2006 as being a potential senate candidate

Anything is possible.  I'm just stating the obvious.

[Sam Spade]

Open seats.

[Sam Spade]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

Of course it was, but NY state politics is a beast of a different color. 

You have to understand that the race is nowhere near safe at this moment given the present condition of NY's economy and where it may be headed.  Also, Paterson is a *real* black, with a father who was one of the original cronies of Harlem - Obama is really not even comparable except for the skin color.

Finally, I would note that even with Obama's excellent performance in metropolitan areas around this country, his performance in the white-flight areas of NY was, well, pretty much what I expected actually (ie pathetic in comparison).  Keep in mind that a *real* black will have a lot more trouble out there.

I think I've tried to explain this to Smash before, but he won't listen, even though he lives in Nassau County and should witness this first-hand.  Maybe I'll have better luck here.

These statements goes for primaries, as well as the general.

[Sam Spade]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

Of course it was, but NY state politics is a beast of a different color. 

You have to understand that the race is nowhere near safe at this moment given the present condition of NY's economy and where it may be headed.  Also, Paterson is a *real* black, with a father who was one of the original cronies of Harlem - Obama is really not even comparable except for the skin color.

Finally, I would note that even with Obama's excellent performance in metropolitan areas around this country, his performance in the white-flight areas of NY was, well, pretty much what I expected actually (ie pathetic in comparison).  Keep in mind that a *real* black will have a lot more trouble out there.

I think I've tried to explain this to Smash before, but he won't listen, even though he lives in Nassau County and should witness this first-hand.  Maybe I'll have better luck here.

These statements goes for primaries, as well as the general.

Im sorry but I live in New York and no Republican is ever going to win statewide here anytime soon.  A Republican has to win by two to one upstate, which now leans Democratic, get 60% plus on LI, and hope for a low turnout in the city(which is now around 50% of the states population).  This is like a Democrat winning statewide in Texas or Georgia, it aint gonna happen. 

It already does happen in Georgia.  Not talking about the federal level, but statewide.

Texas is just waiting for a decent Dem candidate and third-party action.