2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[Lunar]

Safe Democratic
Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)

Likely Democratic
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)

Lean Democratic
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)

Pure Tossup
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D) [With Obama in the oval office, I'd say lean R]
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D) [It's not open anymore, the Lt. Governor, Diane Denish has been laying the groundwork for a long time.  With Obama in the oval office I'd strongly say likely D since the GOP's slate has been wiped clean]
Minnesota (open seat held by Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) [I'd say lean D with the way this state has been going]

Lean Republican
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Likely Republican
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Safe Republican
Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R) [I'd say likely on this one]
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R) [If he doesn't get attacked via primary, the Democrats will field someone like Houston Mayor Bill White that should be at least vaguely competitive.

Notes:

Lynch is running?!
Douglas is running?!
Sonny Perdue doesn't have term limits?
Pawlenty doesn't have term limits?!

[Lunar]

Thanks for those comments, Lunar.  I kind of bypassed Tennessee and New Mexico, but otherwise I stand by my predictions.

*edits original post*

I based my suggestions on my research into potential candidates lining up on both sides.  If a state is shaping up to be a one-sided, highly-charged primary (Like Illinois senate seat was in 2004), we know which party is likely going to win.  In the case of states like Oklahoma, Kansas, and Tennessee, the list of Republicans seeking interest is long.

Only two Democrats I know of might be interested in the TN governorship: Ford and Davis.  But they're staying back while people like Zach Wamp are going all-out.

National Republicans have taken note of Appalachia's complete and utter F.U. to Barack Obama, rest assured.  The GOP knows that they cannot double-down in Appalachia, but they certainly see no reason to surrender seats that they are now able to win.  In the case of Arkansas, they don't have a slate of contenders, but in most of the other states they have the bench.

[Lunar]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

He was probably talking about the primary challenge that he is likely to receive.

Who is going to challenge him?  The only person who could do it is Andrew Cuomo and he is likely to be appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. 

In order to beat Patterson or any incumbent, said incumbent would have had to do a bad job.  No one has been looking into taking on David and even if Cuomo beat Patterson, the Democrats would will be guaranteed to win the seat.

Rest assured he'll replace Clinton with someone who will help him win a critical Democratic constituency (I predict Vasquez).

[Lunar]

That is true.  I don't expect him to run.  I expect a sacrificial goat.

[Lunar]

Lincoln Davis said many months ago that he plans on running. I don't think there's going to be much convincing going on.

Really?  Eep, I thought he was hedging and testing the waters.

Nevermind!

[Lunar]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Ford is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

[Lunar]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Lincoln is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

Come again?

Err, neither wants to run against the other should the other run.  If Ford explicitly filed for candidacy, I would not expect Davis to run despite his claims.  Some forum members have cited claims by Davis that he would not run if Ford did as well (but I haven't checked their accuracy).

My comment on the window was that Davis has a day-job and Harold Ford only has a small window in which to do things before people forget about him.

[Lunar]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Lincoln is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

Come again?

Err, neither wants to run against the other should the other run.  If Ford explicitly filed for candidacy, I would not expect Davis to run despite his claims.

My comment on the window was that Davis has a day-job and Harold Ford only has a small window in which to do things before people forget about him.

You'll notice that you referred to potential candidates "Lincoln" and "Davis".

Well I meant Lincoln and Ford.  I'm not smart enough for this.  Peace out.

[Lunar]

Haha, I get the winks.  But White's the only guy I heard that's interested in the seat besides Lance Armstrong.

In Idaho, businessman Lane Startin has already declared he's going to challenge Butch Otter.

edit:  just joking, Sartin is dead:
http://www.lanestartin.org/