2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[Mr.Phips]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

[Mr.Phips]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

He was probably talking about the primary challenge that he is likely to receive.

Who is going to challenge him?  The only person who could do it is Andrew Cuomo and he is likely to be appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. 

[Mr.Phips]

Thanks for those comments, Lunar.  I kind of bypassed Tennessee and New Mexico, but otherwise I stand by my predictions.

*edits original post*

 
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I based my suggestions on my research into potential candidates lining up on both sides.  If a state is shaping up to be a one-sided, highly-charged primary (Like Illinois senate seat was in 2004), we know which party is likely going to win.  In the case of states like Oklahoma, Kansas, and Tennessee, the list of Republicans seeking interest is long.

Only two Democrats I know of might be interested in the TN governorship: Ford and Davis.  But they're staying back while people like Zach Wamp are going all-out.

National Republicans have taken note of Appalachia's complete and utter F.U. to Barack Obama, rest assured.  The GOP knows that they cannot double-down in Appalachia, but they certainly see no reason to surrender seats that they are now able to win.  In the case of Arkansas, they don't have a slate of contenders, but in most of the other states they have the bench.

Im almost certain that if they dont believe that Lincoln Davis can win the Tennessee governors race, Democrats will lean on him heavily to stay in his House seat, since it would almost certainly be lost without him. 

[Mr.Phips]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

Of course it was, but NY state politics is a beast of a different color. 

You have to understand that the race is nowhere near safe at this moment given the present condition of NY's economy and where it may be headed.  Also, Paterson is a *real* black, with a father who was one of the original cronies of Harlem - Obama is really not even comparable except for the skin color.

Finally, I would note that even with Obama's excellent performance in metropolitan areas around this country, his performance in the white-flight areas of NY was, well, pretty much what I expected actually (ie pathetic in comparison).  Keep in mind that a *real* black will have a lot more trouble out there.

I think I've tried to explain this to Smash before, but he won't listen, even though he lives in Nassau County and should witness this first-hand.  Maybe I'll have better luck here.

These statements goes for primaries, as well as the general.

Im sorry but I live in New York and no Republican is ever going to win statewide here anytime soon.  A Republican has to win by two to one upstate, which now leans Democratic, get 60% plus on LI, and hope for a low turnout in the city(which is now around 50% of the states population).  This is like a Democrat winning statewide in Texas or Georgia, it aint gonna happen. 

[Mr.Phips]

My list, I updated it:

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)

Likely Democratic

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)

Lean Democratic

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Illinois (likely open seat held by Rod Blagojevich - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)

Pure Tossup

California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)

I think you have to move California to lean Dem and Tennessee and possibly Oklahoma to lean Rep.