2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A little more interesting than my Senate rankings would be (hint: about seven competitive or potentially competitive seats, the rest safe).

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)

Likely Democratic

Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)

Lean Democratic

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)

Pure Tossup

Arizona (open seat held by Janet Napolitano - D)
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
Nebraska (open seat (?) held by Dave Heineman - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)

State notes:

Maryland - O'Malley isn't particularly popular, but outside of Ehrlich, the Republicans don't have anyone to run against him.

Hawaii - Lingle is personally popular, but she hasn't had any luck getting other Republicans elected in the state.

Rhode Island - Should be a pickup as long as the Dems don't run Myrth York.

Minnesota - Competitive if the Dems can find a non-crap candidate.

Nevada - Unpopular governor + Democratic trend = Uh-oh! (Just don't run Reid's son. Please.)

Oklahoma - You'd think this would be a sure pickup for the Republicans, but their bench is pretty thin, actually. The only statewide electeds are the three Corporation Commissioners.

Wyoming - I guess Gary Trauner could run?

South Dakota - The state is not as heavily Republican as it was in 2004 on the presidential level, but get this: they've only elected four Democratic governors in their history.

Nebraska - Wikipedia says Heineman is term-limited, but he's only in his first full term. Anyone know what the deal is here?

Overall, the Dems are going to be playing a lot of defense this cycle.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ah, I missed SC. Is the embarrassment of a Lt. Governor, Andre Bauer, going to run? He's pretty much the only candidate who could turn the race into a pickup for the Dems.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My list, I updated it:

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)

Likely Democratic

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)

Lean Democratic

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Illinois (likely open seat held by Rod Blagojevich - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)

Pure Tossup

California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My list, I updated it:

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)

Likely Democratic

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)

Lean Democratic

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Illinois (likely open seat held by Rod Blagojevich - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)

Pure Tossup

California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)

I think you have to move California to lean Dem and Tennessee and possibly Oklahoma to lean Rep. 

It really depends on who the candidates are (of course, this is true for most of the close races), but especially in California, the Dems have a way of picking the worst candidate possible. A Poizner vs. Newsom matchup, for example, would likely end in a Republican victory.

The Democrats' hopes in Tennessee rest on Lincoln Davis. Unless there's another Phil Bredesen hiding out there, Davis is the only person who has a shot at winning. But until he demurs, I'm keeping it a tossup.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Maine* (John Baldacci - D) The ME GOP is not exactly the epitome of a well-run organization and you have all those weird Maine independents running around causing trouble.  So, I have to give Dems the advantage.  Tom Allen, I guess (although his performance against Collins was worse than pathetic).  I defer to Kevinstat here.

Why thank you.  Thank you also for being the first person on this thread to recognize that Maine will hold a Gubernatorial election in 2010.  Tom Allen has, from what I've heard from my parents and a person I work with (I don't watch the local news all the time, or the national news for that matter; I get most of my information on current events online), unequivically stated that he will not run for Governor in 2010 (he may have said for any office in 2010, but there's no other top-ticket elective office in Maine he could run for that's up that year and isn't held by another Democrat who will surely run again), and he has said it is highly unlikely that he will ever run for public office again.

Ex- (by four days) Attorney General Steven Rowe (D) has basically announced besides the speech and pom poms.  Ex-State House Speaker John Richardson (D) is also expected to run, although he's been more coy about it than Rowe.  There are lots of other people who are likely to run and at least one candidate who has already announced (and two according to Politics1.com, but I don't have the mental energy right now to list them all and comment on the likelyhood of their running and their chances should they run.  Still, ...

Maine: John Baldacci (D) is term limited
Leans Democrat.

sounds about right.

Oh crap, I missed two states. South Dakota I added in, but I forgot Maine. I'd say Lean Democrat too.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Damn, I'm really bad at this. Three states I missed at the outset. So who exactly could beat Patrick among the Republicans?