2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[dmet41]

Patterson is far from safe...

[dmet41]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

He was probably talking about the primary challenge that he is likely to receive.

Who is going to challenge him?  The only person who could do it is Andrew Cuomo and he is likely to be appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. 

Well, we'll see.

I dont think that Cuomo is much of a threat to Patterson. A poll came out a few weeks ago showing Patterson winning only 49-43 against Giuliani. If Patterson cannot get things under control in Albany with the budget and everything, I could see Giuliani beating him. Especially in 2010 when the political climate will be better for the GOP. You would have thought that Giuliani's  debacle of a campaign in 2008 would prevent him from running successfully again, but he is still quite popular in NY.

[dmet41]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

Of course it was, but NY state politics is a beast of a different color. 

You have to understand that the race is nowhere near safe at this moment given the present condition of NY's economy and where it may be headed.  Also, Paterson is a *real* black, with a father who was one of the original cronies of Harlem - Obama is really not even comparable except for the skin color.

Finally, I would note that even with Obama's excellent performance in metropolitan areas around this country, his performance in the white-flight areas of NY was, well, pretty much what I expected actually (ie pathetic in comparison).  Keep in mind that a *real* black will have a lot more trouble out there.

I think I've tried to explain this to Smash before, but he won't listen, even though he lives in Nassau County and should witness this first-hand.  Maybe I'll have better luck here.

These statements goes for primaries, as well as the general.

Im sorry but I live in New York and no Republican is ever going to win statewide here anytime soon.  A Republican has to win by two to one upstate, which now leans Democratic, get 60% plus on LI, and hope for a low turnout in the city(which is now around 50% of the states population).  This is like a Democrat winning statewide in Texas or Georgia, it aint gonna happen. 

It already does happen in Georgia.  Not talking about the federal level, but statewide.

Texas is just waiting for a decent Dem candidate and third-party action.

The Democratic Party in NY is not very popular. They control the most disfunctional state assembly and in the last years they have had 2 state wide officals Hevesi and Spitzer get knocked out of office in disgrace. There is a opening for the GOP in NY, they just have to exploit it.