2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[Holmes]

I'm not all that good at predicting, but I'll try to use as least toss-ups as possible.


Safe Democratic

Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R) - Should be an easy dem pick up honestly, who can run for this in Rhode Island?
Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D) - All he has to do in Arkansas is show up.
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D) - Nothing seems to say otherwise...
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D) - Very safe, even if he runs for Senate this one is still likely, or lean at the most.
New York (David Paterson - D) - Really not worried, especially if he's challenged in primaries and loses.

Likely Democratic

Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D) - Will be primaried, I'm sure. And will probably lose.
Iowa (Chet Culver - D) - Yawn.
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D) - Same as Arkansas, but he could lose in a potential primary...
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D) - Smith can run, which would be fun. I wanna say it's safe, but if he runs it's kinda not.
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D) - I haven't heard much from the Wisconsin GOP Party in... ever? He could be seriously primaried though.
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) - Very unpopular. And not "David Paterson" unpopular. If he's the candidate, then I could even re-consider it to being safe dem, but he could be primaried and possible lose.

Lean Democratic

Ohio (Ted Strickland - D) - Pretty popular, but Ohio's GOP party isn't totally incompetent and could offer a good challenger.
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D) - The Lt. Governor will have almost 2 years of incumbency, but I don't know much about her though... still, lean dem.
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R) - The Lt. Governor can try, but other than that...?
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R) - This is the one I'll be watching, because I have family there, and it's important to me. That said, if Democrats can actually choose a good candidate that's electable, it could be even more safe for them. But Republicans shouldn't think that the passing of Prop 8 is a good indicator the conservative Republicans can win in this state.
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D) - There are definitely some good Republicans in Michigan(despite the state becoming bluer and bluer), but until a good one is chosen, I'm giving the dems the benefit of the doubt here. Of course, democrats can always choose a bad candidate, but it's worth noting Granholm won re-election pretty easily.
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D) Ed was a popular governor, so it's easy to give this the benefit of the doubt to the dems. That said, with the right candidate...


Lean Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R) - The right dem can win here... after all, in the past 40 years, the majority of governors in Alabama were democrats. Then again, in the past 20 years...
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R) - Could only be considered lean dem if they choose a good candidate and the Minnesota Independence Party doesn't involve itself a lot.
Arizona (open seat held by Janet Napolitano - D) - I gave New Mexico to the dem column for incumbency so I'm giving the GOP Arizona for now... again, I don't know much about Lt. Governors so I'm basing this on incumbency.
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D) - I've heard the current Lt. Governor is favored? I really wouldn't know, but realistically it's a lean GOP. Especially if Brownback runs. Should be fun.
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D) - Ok, I don't know anything about Tennessee so I'm probably wrong here. Actually, I won't even talk much about it... Tennessee is pretty Republican.

Likely Republican

Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D) - Let's be realistic.
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R) - They just re-elected Saxby, so...
Nebraska (open seat (?) held by Dave Heineman - R) - If Omaha can back up the Democrat candidate and the rest of the state is unenthusiastic about the Republican candidate, then it might be lean...
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)- Boring.
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R) - Well, its New England. But that's not to say she's in danger. Still, anything can happen, though I think it's unlikely...

Safe Republican

South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R) - South Dakota electing a democrat governor? Unlikely... unless Sandlin goes for it, which I'm doubting.
Texas (Rick Perry - R) - I'm hoping otherwise, but...
Alaska (Sarah Palin - R) - Same.
Florida (Charlie Crist - R) - Popularity is high, so...
Idaho (Butch Otter - R) - You just need an R in Idaho.
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)- Vermont elects every 2 years too? Well, with a landslide this year, he'll have to screw up royally...


So that's how I see the 2010 governor races right now... feedback?

[Holmes]

But you also have incredible bias for the Republican party.