The White Trend Map
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Author Topic: The White Trend Map  (Read 4857 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« on: November 29, 2008, 03:33:59 PM »



Table (according to CNN 2004 & 2008 Exit Polls, sorted by Swing/Trend:
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2008, 03:42:25 PM »
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88580.0
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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E: -1.94, S: -3.13

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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2008, 09:48:07 PM »
So....blacks and hispanics trended away from Obama in South Carolina? Because the state actually trended Republican with the national average, but whites trended Democrat.
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nclib
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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2008, 11:13:14 PM »
I suppose whites trended Obama where he needed them. Of the fifteen states that were within 10%, the only four where whites trended GOP were AZ,FL,MO, and GA.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2008, 02:05:26 AM »
Quote from: Governor Duke, Dirty South on November 29, 2008, 09:48:07 PM
So....blacks and hispanics trended away from Obama in South Carolina? Because the state actually trended Republican with the national average, but whites trended Democrat.

No, Blacks didn`t trend away in SC. Obama increased his share among Blacks from 85% (Kerry) to 96%. The only strange thing is that Blacks made up only 25% in 2008, but 30% in 2004 - allthough Blacks make up 29% of SC's population.
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2008, 03:06:25 AM »
MoE and sample size of SC AA turnout is kinda low, no?

Or are those official state numbers?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2008, 04:48:34 AM »
CT still surprises me.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2008, 05:03:12 AM »

IL is also surprising. I thought Obama would win Whites by a bigger margin there.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2008, 05:08:01 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 30, 2008, 05:03:12 AM

IL is also surprising. I thought Obama would win Whites by a bigger margin there.

A pretty wimpy swing as well...
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Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2008, 10:10:33 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on November 30, 2008, 05:08:01 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 30, 2008, 05:03:12 AM

IL is also surprising. I thought Obama would win Whites by a bigger margin there.

A pretty wimpy swing as well...

Either the results are wrong due to small sample size (probably) or else black and hispanic turnout was simply through the roof in Illinois.
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Nym90
nym90
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2008, 10:11:42 AM »
Quote from: Governor Duke, Dirty South on November 29, 2008, 09:48:07 PM
So....blacks and hispanics trended away from Obama in South Carolina? Because the state actually trended Republican with the national average, but whites trended Democrat.

Again, probably bad result due to the small samples. I highly doubt McCain did better than Bush with blacks and hispanics in any state relative to his national performance.
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Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2008, 10:13:01 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 29, 2008, 03:33:59 PM

Table (according to CNN 2004 & 2008 Exit Polls, sorted by Swing/Trend:

Quote from: Lunar Jr. on November 30, 2008, 03:06:25 AM
MoE and sample size of SC AA turnout is kinda low, no?

Or are those official state numbers?
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2008, 10:15:56 AM »
Nevada is fascinating. Massive swing to the Democrats but wites trending GOP? Looks like NV is at the least in the lean-D column for a while now.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2008, 10:51:51 PM »
I don't understand Iowa.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2008, 03:35:58 AM »
Old people.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2008, 03:53:21 AM »
Quote from: Platypus on November 30, 2008, 10:15:56 AM
Nevada is fascinating. Massive swing to the Democrats but wites trending GOP? Looks like NV is at the least in the lean-D column for a while now.

     Agreed, NV is perplexing.
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platypeanArchcow
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E: -1.03, S: -7.65

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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2008, 03:55:53 AM »
I think the explanation for a lot of these incongruities is "exit polls suck."
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Flying Dog
Jtfdem
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2008, 02:57:49 PM »
Nevada Latino turnout usually sucks. They actually came out this time.
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