Beet
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,916
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« on: December 02, 2008, 11:32:14 AM » |
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It's a surprise. Why? Because NoVa. is the most Dem area of the state and it still only casts a minority of the votes. So it is not intuitively what you think of as a "decisive region": the margins there would have to be pretty big to overcome the GOP 2004 margins in the rest of the state. And unlike other big counties that sometimes carry their states, NoVa. doesn't even include half of its metropolitan area or its central city. It's less intuitive than say, Miami carrying Florida for the Dems all by itself- and we know that doesn't happen.
Also, Lang's counterfactual is harmed by the fact that Obama would not have carried NoVa. by the margins he did if he was not also being better downstate than Kerry did in 2004.
So what the heck happened? I guess two things- Obama was just a good candidate for the state, and Dems invested a lot here.
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