Real Virginia was Really Useless (user search)
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Author Topic: Real Virginia was Really Useless  (Read 7674 times)
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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Posts: 14,703
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Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

« on: December 11, 2008, 09:37:05 AM »

There were swings to the Democrat, on 2004, in all four VA regions and NOVA was a smaller share of the electorate in 2008

North 26% (27%): Obama 64% (Kerry 53%); McCain 35% (Bush 46%)
Southeast 20% (20%): Obama 56% (Kerry 48%); McCain 43% (Bush 51%)
East/Richmond 37% (36%): Obama 48% (Kerry 42%); McCain 50% (Bush 57%)
Shenandoah-Southwest 17% (17%): Obama 40% (Kerry 38%); McCain 59% (Bush 62%)

Dave
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2008, 10:58:30 AM »

North still had the highest swings.

That it did but there aren't many blacks in NOVA (relative to the Richmond area and southeast of the state)

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The majority of counties and cities Obama carried are white majority and in some its clear that he won a majority of the white vote; yet others seem racially polarised

Obama carried the following:

Northeast Virginia

Alexandria: 72% (+5) [59.1% white]
Arlington: 72% (+4) [65.3% white]
Fairfax: 60% (+6) [60.1% white]
Fairfax City: 58% (+7) [64.3% white]
Falls Church 70% (+5) [77.3% white]
Loudon: 54% (+10) [67.9% white]
Manassas: 55% (+12) [54.2% white]
Manassas Park: 60% (+15) [49.7% white]
Prince William: 58% (+11) [52.3% white]

Southeast

Chesapeake: 51% [63.5% white]
Frankin City: 64% (+10) [54.5% black]
Hampton: 69% (+11) [47.4% black]
Newport News: 64% (+12) [48.3% white]
Norfolk: 71% (+9) [45.9% white]
Northampton: 58% (+8) [54.2% white]
Portsmouth: 70% (+9) [52.8% black]
Suffolk: 54% (+6) [54.2% white]
Surry: 61% (+6) [49.5% white]
Williamsburg: 64% (+13) [77.2% white]

Central Virginia

Albemarle: 59% (+8) [80.9% white]
Brunswick: 63% (+4) [56.0% black]
Buckingham: 50% (+4) [60.4% white]
Caroline: 56% (+7) [65.1% white]
Charles City: 69% (+6) [46.4% black]
Charlottesville: 79% (+7) [68.6% white]
Danville: 59% (+9) [50.9% white]
Emporia: 65% (+9) [57.5% black]
Essex: 55% (+9) [57.1% white]
Greenville: 64% (+5) [59.4% black]
Henrico: 56% (+10) [62.7% white]
Hopewell: 56% (+11) [56.0% white]
King and Queen: 52% (+6) [64.5% white]
Nelson: 54% (+4) [81.9% white]
Petersburg: 89% (+8) [77.8% black]
Prince Edward: 54% (+4) [61.4% white]
Richmond City: 79% (+9) [55.0% black]
Westmoreland: 55% (+6) [64.7% white]

Shenandoah

Covington: 56% (+4) [81.4% white]
Fredericksburg: 64% (+10) [68.5% white]
Harrisonburg: 58% (+15) [74.7% white]
Lexington: 62% (+5) [84.2% white]
Martinsville: 64% (+10) [53.0% white]
Montgomery: 52% (+7) [87.8% white]
Radford: 54% (+8) [85.7% white]
Roanoke City: 61% (+9) [67.6% white]
Staunton: 51% (+12) [84.2% white]
Sussex: 62% (+6) [60.5% black]
Winchester: 52% (+9) [74.4% white]

Red denotes counties/cities which switched from Republican to Democrat

Obama clearly made impressive gains among whites in Virginia, but whether liberal whites are moving in I don't know. That said, self-styled liberals accounted for 21% of the Virginia electorate, up from 17% in 2004

I'm wondering if many of those small Shenandoah cities are college towns, which might explain his surge in several of them because many rural counties in this region saw swings to McCain

Dave
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