What would the map look like with Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee?
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  What would the map look like with Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee?
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Author Topic: What would the map look like with Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee?  (Read 3523 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« on: December 03, 2008, 11:22:46 AM »

I won't make any now (Most likely later), but I think Romney would've done worst, but not by that much. He wouldn't have been as harmed by the economic crisis, and wouldn't pull that idiotic stunt of suspending his campaign (That's what ruined McCain, how he reacted to the stock market crash, not the crash itself.) The more affluent Republican areas would trust him more. Of course his sleaziness and the fact that he seems like the people responsible for the crisis would hurt, and he'd do worse in rural areas because of this (plus the more voters abstaining refusing to vote for a black or a Mormon.) but he wouldn't do as much worse than McCain as was usually predicted.

Huckabee however would be a total disaster. Can you imagine seriously arguing that Mike Huckabee is the man the country needs to get through an economic crisis? He's already alienated suburban Republicans, that would turn into a giant collapse. Obama would've broken 60% in DuPage and would probably even take Orange County. Huckabee would only win the states he'd win on racism or the hardcore socially conservative base. The eastern half of the country looks the same but he also loses the Dakotas, NE-1 and thus NE-AL, Montana, Arizona and Alaska. The national map doesn't look much different, but the county map would be absolutely brutal. Obama might actually carry every county in New Jersey for example.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2008, 12:14:52 PM »


Huckabee however would be a total disaster. Can you imagine seriously arguing that Mike Huckabee is the man the country needs to get through an economic crisis? He's already alienated suburban Republicans, that would turn into a giant collapse. Obama would've broken 60% in DuPage and would probably even take Orange County. Huckabee would only win the states he'd win on racism or the hardcore socially conservative base. The eastern half of the country looks the same but he also loses the Dakotas, NE-1 and thus NE-AL, Montana, Arizona and Alaska. The national map doesn't look much different, but the county map would be absolutely brutal. Obama might actually carry every county in New Jersey for example.

nah, Huck would at least win Sussex. looking at the map, I'm, surprised that Obama did as well as he did in South Jersey, but that's probably due to his ads from the Philly media market bleeding over.

Also, though he would have done worse than McCain, I doubt he would have lost NE-AL and Alaska. It seems no Republican could have lost Alaska, with or without Palin. My hypothesis is that it only appeared to be competitive because of the Stevens Effect, whereby voters were ashamed to admit they supported Republicans due to the rampant corruption of the state Republican party. And remember Huckabee's social views are basically identical to Palin's, though he's more articulate in expressing them, and Alaska seems to be more hardcore religious right than I previously thought.
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panda_priest
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2008, 02:36:02 PM »

What would a Gore/Obama vs. McCain/Palin map look like? Same as Obama's?
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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2008, 07:25:46 PM »

Obama vs. Romney: similar. I agree that Romney would have ultimately done similarly to McCain, give or take a point or two, in the popular vote. He may even have done a point or two better, given better handling of the economic crisis and no Sarah Palin pick -- however, he'd be starting from a much deeper hole.

Mapwise, I'd say it would be pretty much the same except that Obama would carry Missouri. Also, Romney would probably have come closer in Michigan, though he'd still lose the state.

I wonder whether Romney would have been able to hold Indiana; IN was close for a host of reasons, most of which weren't related to McCain. But Romney may have had more cash to compete, and a better response to the economic crisis might have helped. Plus, Romney sort of fits the profile of the prototypical Indiana Republican -- a business-type, not a fire-breather.

Also, I suppose Arizona may have gone for Obama; without McCain's home-state advantage, Obama would almost certainly have contested the state. I still think it would have gone to Mitt by a point or two, but I could be wrong.

With Huckabee, I really am not sure how things would have worked out. I can see a case for Huck doing much worse than McCain, but I can also see Huck better. Huckabee is simply a very likeable politician, and he'd have been able to compete as an outsider and a break from Bush far better than McCain could have. It's possible Huckabee could have been surprisingly formidable. I just don't know.
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Rob
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2008, 07:39:34 PM »

Obama vs. Huckabee:



Pretty ugly in some ways...

Obama vs. Romney:

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Verily
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2008, 07:48:33 PM »

Obama v Huckabee definitely would have brought out the worst in terms of regional divides and hatreds, although Obama would have had the enormous advantage of having every single Kerry state completely impenetrable against Huckabee. (In the end this was true against McCain as well, but Obama at least had to spend money in PA, for example.) I disagree with some of the % on Rob's map (Huckabee would break 60% in TN and KY, and maybe in TX, Obama would break 60% in NH, and ME-02 definitely wouldn't be competitive), but I think it's pretty accurate overall.

Obama v Romney is much harder to say. The argument in favor of Romney doing well is that he could certainly make a compelling case for handling the economy, but the argument against is the equally compelling case that Romney is just another one of the fatcats who caused the crisis. Which message would have prevailed is difficult to say, but it means Obama v Romney could have ranged from a massive Obama landslide to a (relatively) narrow Romney victory. Either way, white turnout in the South would have been dismal.
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Nixon in '80
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« Reply #6 on: December 03, 2008, 09:53:39 PM »

Obama vs. Huckabee:



Pretty ugly in some ways...

Obama vs. Romney:



I'd say these are right on.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2008, 05:02:36 PM »

Obama versus Huckabee...



Obama versus Willard...

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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2008, 05:24:33 PM »

Obama v Romney is much harder to say. The argument in favor of Romney doing well is that he could certainly make a compelling case for handling the economy, but the argument against is the equally compelling case that Romney is just another one of the fatcats who caused the crisis. Which message would have prevailed is difficult to say, but it means Obama v Romney could have ranged from a massive Obama landslide to a (relatively) narrow Romney victory. Either way, white turnout in the South would have been dismal.

The real question with Romney is how he would have handled the financial crisis. He would have at least been on TV acting like he knew what he was talking about, but if he continued to come across as a rich prick, that might have rubbed even more people the wrong way. There's no chance he would have pulled the campaign suspension stunt, and I doubt he would have picked Palin as VP.
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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2008, 07:27:21 PM »

Actually if you asked me back in January and told me Palin would be a serious consideration (of which I would be skeptical), I'd say Romney would be more likely than McCain to choose her, as he was more in need of evangelical boost.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2008, 08:46:54 PM »

Obama v. Huckabee:


Obama v. Satan (Romney)Sad
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2008, 08:54:19 PM »

Obama VS Huckabee



Obama VS Romney

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RI
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« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2008, 05:34:06 PM »


Wyoming? Illinois??
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Lunar
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« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2008, 05:50:22 PM »

Huck would have opposed the bailout if anyone cares (and thus Obama might not have supported it).

I don't see Obama taking any Southern state except possibly Florida or Virginia against Huck.


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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2008, 06:25:46 PM »

Some of you underestimate the ability of the Huckster. I'm not a big fan of his, but he knows how to connect with the American people, and he would've held his own. He wouldn't have freaked out when the market crashed, and opposed the bailout from the beginning. He still loses, but he's not losing the Dakota's, Nebraska, etc .. That's silly. If McCain had opposed the bailout and not freaked out, he would've never dug himself a hole. Those two things alone would've helped him keep Florida and North Carolina by driving up the evangelical turnout.

Huckabee v. Obama



324-214

With Romney, it's hard to tell. He does come off a sleezy, but to tell you the truth, he would've been the only candidate in the race to know something about the economy. He would've opposed the bailout, not called off his campaign, and perhaps said something copetant to the American people about the state of the economy. He may have still been plauged by his image, but he would've come off better than McCain.

Romney v. Obama



286-252

I know I might get a lot of flak for the last map, but if someone had come forth was a real vision for the economy and opposed the unpopular bailout, it would've made a big difference in this race. Obama's margin of victory was aided by McCain's economic incompetence and support of the bailout. Obama's plan isn't much better, but his rhetorical promises made some inroads. Romney is a sleezey guy and all, but he knows the economy.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #15 on: December 05, 2008, 07:03:29 PM »

McCain was the best candidate teh republicans could have put out this year. Thinking that either Huckabee or Romney would do better is a bit foolish. Huckabee would have been able to retain North Carolina (perhaps) but would have meant the loss of Montana, perhaps the Dakotas and if he didn't pick Palin there would have been a possibility at Alaska. Romney meanwhile would have helped in Michigan and Indiana but would have been a failure in the non-Mormon west and in the south (possibly loss of Georgia, Missouri, and a few others depending on evangelical reaction to Romney).
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #16 on: December 05, 2008, 07:38:00 PM »


Illinois was an error on my part. *facepalm* Huck was quite populist so Obama winning wyoming is _barely_ within the realm of possibility.
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« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2008, 09:08:22 PM »

Wyoming was the most Republican state this past election cycle.
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Sensei
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« Reply #18 on: December 05, 2008, 10:01:53 PM »

flip AZ, MO, and MT for both
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ottermax
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« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2008, 10:15:49 PM »

Don't underestimate the Morman vote. It would have prevented Obama from winning Arizona with Romney and probably Nevada. Romney might have won 80% in Utah with Romney, maybe more... But that's where Mormons stop helping him. Once you get the South, it gets interesting. There probably would have been incredibly low turnout although the map wouldn't be very different (possibly odd results like SC and MS going for Obama because of high Black turnout and an anti-Mormon low turnout from Evangelicals).
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