What would the map look like with Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 07:41:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  What would the map look like with Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What would the map look like with Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee?  (Read 3591 times)
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,172
United States


« on: December 03, 2008, 12:14:52 PM »


Huckabee however would be a total disaster. Can you imagine seriously arguing that Mike Huckabee is the man the country needs to get through an economic crisis? He's already alienated suburban Republicans, that would turn into a giant collapse. Obama would've broken 60% in DuPage and would probably even take Orange County. Huckabee would only win the states he'd win on racism or the hardcore socially conservative base. The eastern half of the country looks the same but he also loses the Dakotas, NE-1 and thus NE-AL, Montana, Arizona and Alaska. The national map doesn't look much different, but the county map would be absolutely brutal. Obama might actually carry every county in New Jersey for example.

nah, Huck would at least win Sussex. looking at the map, I'm, surprised that Obama did as well as he did in South Jersey, but that's probably due to his ads from the Philly media market bleeding over.

Also, though he would have done worse than McCain, I doubt he would have lost NE-AL and Alaska. It seems no Republican could have lost Alaska, with or without Palin. My hypothesis is that it only appeared to be competitive because of the Stevens Effect, whereby voters were ashamed to admit they supported Republicans due to the rampant corruption of the state Republican party. And remember Huckabee's social views are basically identical to Palin's, though he's more articulate in expressing them, and Alaska seems to be more hardcore religious right than I previously thought.
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,172
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2008, 05:24:33 PM »

Obama v Romney is much harder to say. The argument in favor of Romney doing well is that he could certainly make a compelling case for handling the economy, but the argument against is the equally compelling case that Romney is just another one of the fatcats who caused the crisis. Which message would have prevailed is difficult to say, but it means Obama v Romney could have ranged from a massive Obama landslide to a (relatively) narrow Romney victory. Either way, white turnout in the South would have been dismal.

The real question with Romney is how he would have handled the financial crisis. He would have at least been on TV acting like he knew what he was talking about, but if he continued to come across as a rich prick, that might have rubbed even more people the wrong way. There's no chance he would have pulled the campaign suspension stunt, and I doubt he would have picked Palin as VP.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 13 queries.