European Elections 2009 (France)
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big bad fab
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« Reply #200 on: May 25, 2009, 07:11:00 AM »

Just to come back to the subject of this thread and to please Hash (not ideologically, just in electoral predictions and analyses):

Today, Laurent Joffrin, director of Libération, the leftist daily newspaper, writes his column on Mélenchon, "alternative" in this poll....

He asks "what's new in this campaign?" Mélenchon....
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« Reply #201 on: May 25, 2009, 07:14:26 AM »

Indeed.

According to an Ifop 2006 poll, 8.6% of people went to church atleast once a month.



The highest is, I think, 12% in Pays de la Loire (or is it Alsace?)

And in 1960, the people who usually go to church on Sundays. Not sure what is the average, but probably 30-40 ish.



Just to come back to the subject of this thread and to please Hash (not ideologically, just in electoral predictions and analyses):

Today, Laurent Joffrin, director of Libération, the leftist daily newspaper, writes his column on Mélenchon, "alternative" in this poll....

He asks "what's new in this campaign?" Mélenchon....

lulz. Isn't Joffrin the one who thinks France is going to become a monarchy?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #202 on: May 25, 2009, 09:35:35 AM »

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me. Shocked
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

Now, now, let's calm down, shall we.

These hardline Cathos are a tiny minority of French people, and at max a third of French Catholics. I have a hard time seeing the UMP becoming a Christian right party, firstly because no such thing has ever been close to a major party at any time in history, and because there are too few hardliners. And because, you know, secularism and the decline of Catholic practice.

You'll always get a few Christian rightists like Boutin or Pinte, but nowhere close to them becoming a very strong caucus a la GOP. If the UMP tried to become a Christian right party, which it won't obviously, there would be a major revolt within the party itself. Remember, the Rads, Gaullists, liberals and so forth. Even the CDS wing of the UMP isn't Christian right (far from it in fact).

I know, I know. You're right, but things change. There is apparently no reason to think it could be so, but some today's trends give me a bad feeling.

rofl. What trends? The only trend I'm seeing is the decline of religious practice and the decline of church-going Catholicism.

Sarkozy's words are nothing but words, since he knows that he can't do anything with secularism that won't create massive street demonstrations and party rebellions.

Do you remember a slogan of Sarko's campaign ( at the very beginning, before he claimed to "have changed" ). He often spoke about the "droite décomplexée".
Your sentence remembers me a lot of things. I was persuaded that it will happen if Sarkozy had applicated in his policies what he said about immigration. I was persuaded that never people will let him do this, because we're still able to oppose most silly government's projects. When he created his "national identity" minister, and when he began to apply a number policy without any human consideration, when I read every wednesday the column "l'expulsé de la semaine" of Charlie hebdo, I understood that Sarkozy didn't say what he said to provoke, and was intelligent enough to make french accept the unacceptable. So I'll fear everything he says untill he will leave the Elysée.


Your data are not really related with my point. I have absolutely nothing against Catholics, still nothing against practicing Catholics. The problem's here only with those ( it's a very small minority, but that changes nothing ) who consider that religion has a social and institutionnal role to play. These people are dangerous.
In 1960, much more people was catholic practicing, but secularism was still a quasi-sacred principle and an absolute consensus for every catholic. Now we have the Villiers, the Sarkozy, the Tillinac... But it isn't all. Because we also have the Tariq Ramadan, the Boubakeur and the Dieudonné. Because of our dear president, the islamist organisation UOIF now controls the French council of muslim cult ( but just why does CFCM exist ? doesn't it mean an institutionnalisation of Islam ? ). Political islam is at least as dangerous as political christianism today.
That is what I meant by trend. You're right : for the moment, there are almost only words. But words often foreshadow facts.
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Math
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« Reply #203 on: May 25, 2009, 10:48:47 AM »

You really should keep cool about Sarkozy's supposed hidden conservative agenda. IMO Sarkozy is not at all a religious conservative. The first thing that comes to my mind is about gay marriage. Before the 2007 elections, the UMP asked Luc Ferry to provide a report on the implications gay marriage, and Ferry finally said that there is nothing serious against it.

Shortly afterwards it was reported that Sarkozy had meetings with Amélie Mauresmo, the lesbian tenniswoman, and in the same time some ministers (one of them was Borloo IIRC) moved in favor of gay marriage.

I think it was a serious attemp to move on this issue, but since Sarkozy is not a moron (well, strategically speaking at least...) he finally realised he would have angered millions of right-wing voters, even if this issue is not as important as it is in the US.

So no, he's not a religious conservative. He's just another politician who will do what he thinks is best in order to win an election. And as Hashemite's maps prove, it's hard to say that transforming the UMP in a religious party would be a smart move...
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« Reply #204 on: May 25, 2009, 11:07:15 AM »
« Edited: May 25, 2009, 11:31:14 AM by Benisto Cerciuro »

Antonio!

You finally believed in my scenario of the "born again Sarkozy"! Was a bit crazy! (That said, please anyone, if ever it happens, please, bump it Grin).

Well, I agree concerning the mainline of your talk. The religious aspects of things is certainly going to be more and more important in the future, and its mix with politics too, at least IMO.

But we're in France, and we're in 2009, and the only extremism that could occur here nowadays would be the far-left perspective, period. And for France, I think it's just when this far-left perspective will be completely wiped out, by having been tried or not, that we could begin to fear about the religious extremism. A religious extremism which would not correspond to the religious forms we currently know in France, would be a kind of mix of Catholicism and Evangelicals. It might sound unlikely, improbable today, but I think that trends could lead to something like this. I may won't develop here, would have a lot of things to say... Just a small example, fab gave unfavorable figures for Catholicism in France, figures for Evangelicals are pretty favorable, and regularly give about 1 new Evangelical church created each week in France, that said they remain a pretty minority today in the country, being at best 400,000.

So, first extremism: far-left. Then religion. That's why I got fun to imagine that scenario in the other topic. But all of this depends a lot of the good being of the economical and psychological situation which makes that a population turns into extremism or not.

Then, the surprise?

I hope Modem making more than PS (Oh yes! Would be so good! They really need a slap, and Bayrou is far to be the worst of the political landscape to me), but well, I would be very surprised it happens, that's just a hope.

The surprise in which I believe far more is the "Front de Gauche", the charisma of Mélenchon plus the base of old voters of PC that will go to vote, that could be a good cocktail. I easily imagine them in front of NPA and FN. And as I said several time, I think NPA don't really care about elections, they only bet the streets.

Still on this, I even think that, and especially in case of electoral success for "Front de Gauche", they could bury the PC and definitely merge PG and PC in this definitive Front de Gauche. Frankly that would be pretty interesting. And they could think that it gives them the advantage on NPA, which would be obviously wrong, given that, one more time, the only chance of far-left in France is the strategy of the street, and Mélenchon, who would lead that definitive Front de Gauche is worse than Besancenot in this strategy. But it can participate to make grow far-left noise in the country.

Concerning the altercation between a PS supporter and Besancenot, according to a guy from NPA at Karl Zero, that guy wasn't even a worker of the compagny involved, he was just here to blame Besancenot in front of TV cameras, meanwhile Besancenot was here because invited by CGT. Mouhahah, don't know if that's true but, frankly, if so, that's not elegant, and if so, poor PS...

About PS, well Martine Aubry seems really to get back some energy, we'll see. The important meeting with "the real Messiah" of France, Ségolène Royal (far more a Messiah than Sarkozy until now) is tomorrow, to be seen...

Hmm, to finish, the other surprise could be the greenies, but, the greenies down, what I hope given the tone of their campaign. Plus (mouhahahaahah) Bové and Cohn Bendit on the same European list!! No! No! It's the reality!! If none of them have changed on the European treaty, then there is something weird in here...

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #205 on: May 25, 2009, 12:47:40 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2009, 12:53:51 PM by Antonio V »

Antonio!

You finally believed in my scenario of the "born again Sarkozy"! Was a bit crazy! (That said, please anyone, if ever it happens, please, bump it Grin).

Well, I agree concerning the mainline of your talk. The religious aspects of things is certainly going to be more and more important in the future, and its mix with politics too, at least IMO.

But we're in France, and we're in 2009, and the only extremism that could occur here nowadays would be the far-left perspective, period. And for France, I think it's just when this far-left perspective will be completely wiped out, by having been tried or not, that we could begin to fear about the religious extremism. A religious extremism which would not correspond to the religious forms we currently know in France, would be a kind of mix of Catholicism and Evangelicals. It might sound unlikely, improbable today, but I think that trends could lead to something like this. I may won't develop here, would have a lot of things to say... Just a small example, fab gave unfavorable figures for Catholicism in France, figures for Evangelicals are pretty favorable, and regularly give about 1 new Evangelical church created each week in France, that said they remain a pretty minority today in the country, being at best 400,000.

So, first extremism: far-left. Then religion. That's why I got fun to imagine that scenario in the other topic. But all of this depends a lot of the good being of the economical and psychological situation which makes that a population turns into extremism or not.

Quite good analysis. But an apocalyptical one... A religious right movement is emerging as we both said, but my hope is that it becomes a marginal one, as the FN was before Sarko recycled its ideas. So, my greatest fear is that the UMP would be contaminated by people like Boutin and gradually becomes a religious party. Today, seems impossible. In one or two decades, we could already be accustomed...


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Agreed also with that. PG could rapidly become a strong left political force after absorbing the dying PC, contrary to Besancenot who will in my opinion reveal to be a "baudruche". It could be interesting, a threat for the PS but also a potential alliee in a new "Union de la gauche". I personally think it could be a good thing.
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« Reply #206 on: May 25, 2009, 01:45:49 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2009, 01:49:20 PM by Benisto Cerciuro »

Antonio!

You finally believed in my scenario of the "born again Sarkozy"! Was a bit crazy! (That said, please anyone, if ever it happens, please, bump it Grin).

Well, I agree concerning the mainline of your talk. The religious aspects of things is certainly going to be more and more important in the future, and its mix with politics too, at least IMO.

But we're in France, and we're in 2009, and the only extremism that could occur here nowadays would be the far-left perspective, period. And for France, I think it's just when this far-left perspective will be completely wiped out, by having been tried or not, that we could begin to fear about the religious extremism. A religious extremism which would not correspond to the religious forms we currently know in France, would be a kind of mix of Catholicism and Evangelicals. It might sound unlikely, improbable today, but I think that trends could lead to something like this. I may won't develop here, would have a lot of things to say... Just a small example, fab gave unfavorable figures for Catholicism in France, figures for Evangelicals are pretty favorable, and regularly give about 1 new Evangelical church created each week in France, that said they remain a pretty minority today in the country, being at best 400,000.

So, first extremism: far-left. Then religion. That's why I got fun to imagine that scenario in the other topic. But all of this depends a lot of the good being of the economical and psychological situation which makes that a population turns into extremism or not.

Quite good analysis. But an apocalyptical one... A religious right movement is emerging as we both said, but my hope is that it becomes a marginal one, as the FN was before Sarko recycled its ideas. So, my greatest fear is that the UMP would be contaminated by people like Boutin and gradually becomes a religious party. Today, seems impossible. In one or two decades, we could already be accustomed...

Actually Boutin is the past, and if ever a religion danger has to come in French politics, lots of things would have changed, maybe the UMP wouldn't exist anymore, and that would come from new people, not those we know today, with a new kind of psychology, a psychology which today finds its best representation in the Ségolène Royal style, Sarkozy also plays a bit on the Messiah style but not as much as she does, using the irrational side. I think that are that side which would have today to make us wonder on what could be the future of politics and how the irrational could be very important in it in the future...

Then, we speak about France here but, we have a wonderful example of Messiah style over the seas, you might have heard about him, you know that guy recently elected, I'm sure you know him... His name: Barack Obama. That might be the "good side" of the Messiah style but that is some, and that get people used to that kind of style, especially when it comes to him because it was a kind of worldwide election. So, well, I think with this problem of religion and of what could lead to more and more religion in politics, here we are on a global scale, not only France.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #207 on: May 25, 2009, 03:19:30 PM »

You really should keep cool about Sarkozy's supposed hidden conservative agenda. IMO Sarkozy is not at all a religious conservative. The first thing that comes to my mind is about gay marriage. Before the 2007 elections, the UMP asked Luc Ferry to provide a report on the implications gay marriage, and Ferry finally said that there is nothing serious against it.

Shortly afterwards it was reported that Sarkozy had meetings with Amélie Mauresmo, the lesbian tenniswoman, and in the same time some ministers (one of them was Borloo IIRC) moved in favor of gay marriage.

I think it was a serious attemp to move on this issue, but since Sarkozy is not a moron (well, strategically speaking at least...) he finally realised he would have angered millions of right-wing voters, even if this issue is not as important as it is in the US.

So no, he's not a religious conservative. He's just another politician who will do what he thinks is best in order to win an election. And as Hashemite's maps prove, it's hard to say that transforming the UMP in a religious party would be a smart move...

I think the so-called religious period of Sarkozy was BEFORE the presidential campaign, just a trick to give him some "substance" (he hadn't much, as his biography of Georges Mandel was old and almost completely ignored.... remember French politicians' habit of writing a book to appear serious and presidential ?).

During the campaign, he even said (and maybe made himself believe) that, just after victory, he will stay some days among monks, far away....
And what happened ?

So, don't be afraid ! And Boutin, inside the UMP, is despised as ridiculous and old-fashioned (although she talks rightly about human body merchandisation).

Sure, there can be other influences: scientology, evangelism, Muslim radicalism.
But there are already religiouslike influences: freemasonery, clubs, former students of high schools (I know them well...).
Sure, the 2 latters don't try to put an ideology on French society by force, but in terms of trusting power, it's the same behaviour.

What makes a sectarian evolution possible in France is simply ignorance, stupidity and lack of personal moral values.
And for this, first blame Giscard, Mitterrand, Jospin et alii who broke the French system of education during the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s.
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« Reply #208 on: May 25, 2009, 03:28:17 PM »

Do you remember a slogan of Sarko's campaign ( at the very beginning, before he claimed to "have changed" ). He often spoke about the "droite décomplexée".
Your sentence remembers me a lot of things. I was persuaded that it will happen if Sarkozy had applicated in his policies what he said about immigration. I was persuaded that never people will let him do this, because we're still able to oppose most silly government's projects. When he created his "national identity" minister, and when he began to apply a number policy without any human consideration, when I read every wednesday the column "l'expulsé de la semaine" of Charlie hebdo, I understood that Sarkozy didn't say what he said to provoke, and was intelligent enough to make french accept the unacceptable. So I'll fear everything he says untill he will leave the Elysée.

Don't mix the issue of immigration and religion. French people are probably quite conservative and they favour tough immigration controls. They may not like to hear about expulsions and the like, but I'm convinced voters favour tough immigration laws. Now, on the other hand, secularism is something a overwhelmingly huge majority of voters are attached to, partly because it's such an old thing and because it has become one of the so-called "republican" values.

I don't think people don't really care a whole lot if there are stricter immigration controls. But if somebody tried to change something about secularism, there would be outrage. Remember the 1994 demonstrations about the Falloux Law? And the Falloux Law was, put into perspective, an infinitely minor thing.

Your data are not really related with my point. I have absolutely nothing against Catholics, still nothing against practicing Catholics. The problem's here only with those ( it's a very small minority, but that changes nothing ) who consider that religion has a social and institutionnal role to play. These people are dangerous.

My data serves to prove that the influence of religion is declining in France, as if there was ever a question about that.

In 1960, much more people was catholic practicing, but secularism was still a quasi-sacred principle and an absolute consensus for every catholic. Now we have the Villiers, the Sarkozy, the Tillinac... But it isn't all. Because we also have the Tariq Ramadan, the Boubakeur and the Dieudonné. Because of our dear president, the islamist organisation UOIF now controls the French council of muslim cult ( but just why does CFCM exist ? doesn't it mean an institutionnalisation of Islam ? ). Political islam is at least as dangerous as political christianism today.
That is what I meant by trend. You're right : for the moment, there are almost only words. But words often foreshadow facts.

And secularism is not a quasi-sacred principle today?

De Villiers? Lol. He's an irrelevant joke. Even his little turf is losing interest in him. He can yell all he wants about family values and how awful gays are, but he's an irrelevant joke.

Sarkozy? Sarkozy isn't a religious conservative with an evil hidden agenda, as Math said. No offense intended, but thee might be a little too anti-Sarkozy to see things perfectly objectively. That said, nobody can be entirely objective, and certainly not me.

So what if there are 400,000 evangelical people in France? That's a infinitely small percentage of people. And if they do organize politically and join a major party, in this case the UMP, they'll be outnumbered massively. I still think France is taking the fight against religious extremism and sects pretty seriously.

The surprise in which I believe far more is the "Front de Gauche", the charisma of Mélenchon plus the base of old voters of PC that will go to vote, that could be a good cocktail. I easily imagine them in front of NPA and FN. And as I said several time, I think NPA don't really care about elections, they only bet the streets.

Still on this, I even think that, and especially in case of electoral success for "Front de Gauche", they could bury the PC and definitely merge PG and PC in this definitive Front de Gauche. Frankly that would be pretty interesting. And they could think that it gives them the advantage on NPA, which would be obviously wrong, given that, one more time, the only chance of far-left in France is the strategy of the street, and Mélenchon, who would lead that definitive Front de Gauche is worse than Besancenot in this strategy. But it can participate to make grow far-left noise in the country.

Aha, nice to see somebody picking up on my feeling about the PCF. Grin
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #209 on: May 26, 2009, 01:02:00 PM »

Antonio!

You finally believed in my scenario of the "born again Sarkozy"! Was a bit crazy! (That said, please anyone, if ever it happens, please, bump it Grin).

Well, I agree concerning the mainline of your talk. The religious aspects of things is certainly going to be more and more important in the future, and its mix with politics too, at least IMO.

But we're in France, and we're in 2009, and the only extremism that could occur here nowadays would be the far-left perspective, period. And for France, I think it's just when this far-left perspective will be completely wiped out, by having been tried or not, that we could begin to fear about the religious extremism. A religious extremism which would not correspond to the religious forms we currently know in France, would be a kind of mix of Catholicism and Evangelicals. It might sound unlikely, improbable today, but I think that trends could lead to something like this. I may won't develop here, would have a lot of things to say... Just a small example, fab gave unfavorable figures for Catholicism in France, figures for Evangelicals are pretty favorable, and regularly give about 1 new Evangelical church created each week in France, that said they remain a pretty minority today in the country, being at best 400,000.

So, first extremism: far-left. Then religion. That's why I got fun to imagine that scenario in the other topic. But all of this depends a lot of the good being of the economical and psychological situation which makes that a population turns into extremism or not.

Quite good analysis. But an apocalyptical one... A religious right movement is emerging as we both said, but my hope is that it becomes a marginal one, as the FN was before Sarko recycled its ideas. So, my greatest fear is that the UMP would be contaminated by people like Boutin and gradually becomes a religious party. Today, seems impossible. In one or two decades, we could already be accustomed...

Actually Boutin is the past, and if ever a religion danger has to come in French politics, lots of things would have changed, maybe the UMP wouldn't exist anymore, and that would come from new people, not those we know today, with a new kind of psychology, a psychology which today finds its best representation in the Ségolène Royal style, Sarkozy also plays a bit on the Messiah style but not as much as she does, using the irrational side. I think that are that side which would have today to make us wonder on what could be the future of politics and how the irrational could be very important in it in the future...

Then, we speak about France here but, we have a wonderful example of Messiah style over the seas, you might have heard about him, you know that guy recently elected, I'm sure you know him... His name: Barack Obama. That might be the "good side" of the Messiah style but that is some, and that get people used to that kind of style, especially when it comes to him because it was a kind of worldwide election. So, well, I think with this problem of religion and of what could lead to more and more religion in politics, here we are on a global scale, not only France.

I agree about our Ségolène, a totally mad woman who seems loving to be ridiculous. I tend though to very stongly disagree about Obama. Obama is not an "irrationalist" politician, he's just the contrary : a politican who succeeded in showing American the reality, after the lies of Bush administrantion and the falseness of Bush's disgusting ideology. Obama is before all a realist man, who gave a just vision of America, and was able to gather American around his ideas. I don't know if you noticed that, but Obama is the only politicial that I never heard pronounce the word "I". Sarko and Ségo use it more than everyone before, because the first is an egocentric reactionnary and the second the autoproclamed guru of a new political sect.

Do you remember a slogan of Sarko's campaign ( at the very beginning, before he claimed to "have changed" ). He often spoke about the "droite décomplexée".
Your sentence remembers me a lot of things. I was persuaded that it will happen if Sarkozy had applicated in his policies what he said about immigration. I was persuaded that never people will let him do this, because we're still able to oppose most silly government's projects. When he created his "national identity" minister, and when he began to apply a number policy without any human consideration, when I read every wednesday the column "l'expulsé de la semaine" of Charlie hebdo, I understood that Sarkozy didn't say what he said to provoke, and was intelligent enough to make french accept the unacceptable. So I'll fear everything he says untill he will leave the Elysée.

Don't mix the issue of immigration and religion. French people are probably quite conservative and they favour tough immigration controls. They may not like to hear about expulsions and the like, but I'm convinced voters favour tough immigration laws. Now, on the other hand, secularism is something a overwhelmingly huge majority of voters are attached to, partly because it's such an old thing and because it has become one of the so-called "republican" values.

I don't think people don't really care a whole lot if there are stricter immigration controls. But if somebody tried to change something about secularism, there would be outrage. Remember the 1994 demonstrations about the Falloux Law? And the Falloux Law was, put into perspective, an infinitely minor thing.

I think to the contrary that attitude toward immigration changed a lot since Sarkozy became interior minister. Yes, secularism remains today a quite consensual value, but I won't treat him as a constant.


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An irrilevant joke, but the seond of "little candidates" in 2007, and will rapidly grow where the FN will die as LO and LCR could gain some importance with the decline of PCF.


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You are right, I'm absolutely not objective. Wink That's true, I never loved the french right, and Sarkozy's surge transformed my dislike into a real fear. I probably tend to see Sarkozy as worse than he really is, I still believe he is destroying a lot of things by "reforming" France. I won't detail them now because it would be too long. Tongue


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Evangelicals are not majoritary in the USA too. They are a small minority, even if certainly far more than in France. But they still represent a so-called "moral majority" according to republican politicians. 50 years ago, a similar thing didn't seem possible in the USA and especially in the GOP. But it happened.

Remember that mine remains only an hypothesis, and I won't be particularly astonished if future will reveal I am wrong.
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« Reply #210 on: May 26, 2009, 03:19:04 PM »

Do you remember a slogan of Sarko's campaign ( at the very beginning, before he claimed to "have changed" ). He often spoke about the "droite décomplexée".
Your sentence remembers me a lot of things. I was persuaded that it will happen if Sarkozy had applicated in his policies what he said about immigration. I was persuaded that never people will let him do this, because we're still able to oppose most silly government's projects. When he created his "national identity" minister, and when he began to apply a number policy without any human consideration, when I read every wednesday the column "l'expulsé de la semaine" of Charlie hebdo, I understood that Sarkozy didn't say what he said to provoke, and was intelligent enough to make french accept the unacceptable. So I'll fear everything he says untill he will leave the Elysée.

Don't mix the issue of immigration and religion. French people are probably quite conservative and they favour tough immigration controls. They may not like to hear about expulsions and the like, but I'm convinced voters favour tough immigration laws. Now, on the other hand, secularism is something a overwhelmingly huge majority of voters are attached to, partly because it's such an old thing and because it has become one of the so-called "republican" values.

I don't think people don't really care a whole lot if there are stricter immigration controls. But if somebody tried to change something about secularism, there would be outrage. Remember the 1994 demonstrations about the Falloux Law? And the Falloux Law was, put into perspective, an infinitely minor thing.

I think to the contrary that attitude toward immigration changed a lot since Sarkozy became interior minister. Yes, secularism remains today a quite consensual value, but I won't treat him as a constant.

Why do you say that, out of curiosity?

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An irrilevant joke, but the seond of "little candidates" in 2007, and will rapidly grow where the FN will die as LO and LCR could gain some importance with the decline of PCF.

I disagree. I have yet to see any evidence of the MPF or de Villiers growing out of the FN's decline. Neither in polls nor in political attitudes. Quite to the contrary, in fact...


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« Reply #211 on: May 27, 2009, 06:46:54 AM »

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 20% (-2)
MoDem 13% (+2)
Greenies 10.5% (+0.5)
NPA 7% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5.5% (+0.5)
PCF-PG 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 4% (+1)

Major parties always tend to drop in the last few days. IIRC, in 2004, the PS dropped from about 30-32% to 28-29% (its actual result) and the UMP dropped from 20-22% to 16-17% (actual result was 16.6%).
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« Reply #212 on: May 27, 2009, 08:05:29 AM »

Do you remember a slogan of Sarko's campaign ( at the very beginning, before he claimed to "have changed" ). He often spoke about the "droite décomplexée".
Your sentence remembers me a lot of things. I was persuaded that it will happen if Sarkozy had applicated in his policies what he said about immigration. I was persuaded that never people will let him do this, because we're still able to oppose most silly government's projects. When he created his "national identity" minister, and when he began to apply a number policy without any human consideration, when I read every wednesday the column "l'expulsé de la semaine" of Charlie hebdo, I understood that Sarkozy didn't say what he said to provoke, and was intelligent enough to make french accept the unacceptable. So I'll fear everything he says untill he will leave the Elysée.

Don't mix the issue of immigration and religion. French people are probably quite conservative and they favour tough immigration controls. They may not like to hear about expulsions and the like, but I'm convinced voters favour tough immigration laws. Now, on the other hand, secularism is something a overwhelmingly huge majority of voters are attached to, partly because it's such an old thing and because it has become one of the so-called "republican" values.

I don't think people don't really care a whole lot if there are stricter immigration controls. But if somebody tried to change something about secularism, there would be outrage. Remember the 1994 demonstrations about the Falloux Law? And the Falloux Law was, put into perspective, an infinitely minor thing.

I think to the contrary that attitude toward immigration changed a lot since Sarkozy became interior minister. Yes, secularism remains today a quite consensual value, but I won't treat him as a constant.

Why do you say that, out of curiosity?

Sarko's ability to make ideas accept is really great. He managed to make people think that his policies was the only possible policies, that arbitrary expulsions were an absolute necessity. That the left "humanist" were hypocritical cowards. In fact, he said "what I'm doing is horrible, dirty, disgusting, but we have to do it", and people believed and still believe him.


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An irrilevant joke, but the seond of "little candidates" in 2007, and will rapidly grow where the FN will die as LO and LCR could gain some importance with the decline of PCF.[/quote]

I disagree. I have yet to see any evidence of the MPF or de Villiers growing out of the FN's decline. Neither in polls nor in political attitudes. Quite to the contrary, in fact...[/quote]

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 20% (-2)
MoDem 13% (+2)
Greenies 10.5% (+0.5)
NPA 7% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5.5% (+0.5)

PCF-PG 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 4% (+1)

Could you immagine MPF ahead of FN some years ago ?
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« Reply #213 on: May 27, 2009, 09:00:19 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2009, 09:12:48 AM by Benisto Cerciuro »

Once again, I personally agree on the fact that there could be strong religious danger in the future, on the global scale, and France, even with its strong secularist tradition could be touched too. The fact that some prominent political leaders in France such as Sarkozy and Royal have some behaviors and words that tend to break our traditional borders on this would be a sign of it here.

But, really, I think that by focusing on Boutin or Villiers or stuff like that is an error. The conservatism in France is out, and will be for a long time I think, a GOP evolution is far to happen I think, now and in the future.

One more time, if we can also fear of religious problem here I think it would be more likely because of the psycholgical evolution of populations on the global scale, I mean the fact that the irrational, the emotional, and the only charisma takes more and more and more importance now and in the years to come. And this could allow all excesses. I really think that if there is something you can fear it's more likely this.

That's why personally, I pay far more attention to religious movements like evangelicals, who use very well modern technicals, who don't fear to use money and means to convert and who play 100% on the irrational/emotional/charisma. That said, to develop themselves around the world they have to adapt themselves to each country traditions, and they do it very well, no matter they are in Africa or in Russia or anywhere. And meanwhile, we have here young movements of young catholics we tends to follow the trends of evangelicals, with certainly less flexibility.

And all of this can work because of the kind of things that fab said, lack of values, but also lack of perspectives and fragility of old marks, and especially I think because of people feeling lost, psychologically fragile, emotionally more and more sensitive. Well, I think that kind of movements have here a very favorable ground for their development and that's why it could be reasonable to seriously consider that kinds of evolutions.

So I think that more than the old catholic conservatism, it would be rather relevant to pay attention to the bigger and bigger importance of irrational/emotional/charisma. And in terms of people there is someone to who I think we should really, really, really pay attention in the future in France. I saw that L'Express makes a cover on him this week, I speak about Sarkozy...Jean Sarkozy... Yes, I actually think that guy could use every means to reach power, far more than his father, using the worst populism, exploiting all that trends of the society I cited above, and, that guy has really the means, he could be redoubtable in the future...

Oh Obama? As I said I think he just played on that Messiah style, maybe very sincerely, unconsciously, and for the will to make the good, but, in facts, that's what happened, and thus shows the trends I spoke about...

The surprise in which I believe far more is the "Front de Gauche", the charisma of Mélenchon plus the base of old voters of PC that will go to vote, that could be a good cocktail. I easily imagine them in front of NPA and FN. And as I said several time, I think NPA don't really care about elections, they only bet the streets.

Still on this, I even think that, and especially in case of electoral success for "Front de Gauche", they could bury the PC and definitely merge PG and PC in this definitive Front de Gauche. Frankly that would be pretty interesting. And they could think that it gives them the advantage on NPA, which would be obviously wrong, given that, one more time, the only chance of far-left in France is the strategy of the street, and Mélenchon, who would lead that definitive Front de Gauche is worse than Besancenot in this strategy. But it can participate to make grow far-left noise in the country.

Aha, nice to see somebody picking up on my feeling about the PCF. Grin


Yes, for a bit of time now, I felt he could be a surprise, before Libération wrote about it, and what you said about old PCF voters was for me one more argument.

I'm still very surprised of Greenies polled that high, and really hope they will fall.

Oh, and of course, my endorsement goes to Modem in this campaign, plus, in my constituency, with have a good guy from them with Robert Rochefort. That said, I won't vote, because having moved last year I had to subscribe to electoral lists, and well, I never found the mood to go for it. In that sens, I tend to understand people who don't go to vote, there is not the slightest appeal from Europe to go to, though, I acknowledged I should have subscribed, but well...
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« Reply #214 on: May 27, 2009, 12:46:27 PM »

The irrational feelings you mentioned had always existed in every countries, with different forms, being more or less strong, but th'at's not a modern revolution.
This movement grew a lot in the last decade, because of poor economical conditions and uncertainity about the future. Le Pen first, then Sarkozy and Royal benefitted this feeling.
But it's not an irreversible trend. I strongly believed that an intelligent, well intentionned, effective, cultivated and persuasive politician is able to stop it. A similar man is very very rare, but I think Obama is the most perfect example of that. Obama is agaist the grain with irrationality. People who love him ( I am of them ) don't love a prophet, they love his ideas, they love his words, they love his project for America and for the world. The fact he generated a huger political movement around his person doesn't mean that he played the role of a Messiah. A passionate political movement is not necessarily a demogogic one.
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« Reply #215 on: May 27, 2009, 04:06:17 PM »

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An irrilevant joke, but the seond of "little candidates" in 2007, and will rapidly grow where the FN will die as LO and LCR could gain some importance with the decline of PCF.

I disagree. I have yet to see any evidence of the MPF or de Villiers growing out of the FN's decline. Neither in polls nor in political attitudes. Quite to the contrary, in fact...[/quote]

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 20% (-2)
MoDem 13% (+2)
Greenies 10.5% (+0.5)
NPA 7% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5.5% (+0.5)

PCF-PG 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 4% (+1)

Could you immagine MPF ahead of FN some years ago ?
[/quote]

1. This is a poll (albeit a very good pollster). Let's wait for the results.
2. This is a Euro election. Half of the people won't bother to vote. And Euros are different from real elections, and Euros have huge swings, and so forth which make them poor samples for public mood swings.
3. The MPF alone polled 6.7% in 2004, 8.4% if you count CPNT.

Even if the MPF does gain FN voters, which probably isn't happening, FN voters are not hardline Cathos or religious voters, as filliatre pointed out a few months ago. He and I cringe at people who think the FN has a large religious hardliner base.

Anyways, the topic of this thread is European elections and not the future of religion in France and/or how we're all going to die. Mil gracias.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #216 on: May 28, 2009, 03:34:14 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2009, 02:17:33 AM by big bad fab »

Back to the main subject of this thread.

A new poll from TNS-SOFRES, which was a good pollster some years ago, but has become less and less reliable, even if CSA is worse, of course.

http://www.france-info.com/IMG/pdf/TNS_Sofres_Logica_-_Intentions_de_vote_Europeennes_Vague_1.pdf

Sample: 1000

UMP 26%
PS 19%
MoDem 14%
Greens 11%
PG-PCF 7%
NPA 6%
FN 6%
MPF-CPNT 4%
LO 2%
AEI 1,5%
DLR 0,5%
others 3%

Big news are that
- the PS is below 20, and this is announced just the day after the Aubry-Royal Big Show (another photo-op quickly wasted...Smiley)
- the Front de Gauche (PG-PCF) is slightly above the NPA.

And voters of the Front de Gauche are, by far, the most interested, motivated and sure to vote.
So, maybe, after all, the PG and the PCF may produce a little surprise...

Of course, SOFRES is no longer the main pollster in France; many voters are undecided; the "others" are very high (despite the fact that DLR and Alliance Ecologiste Indépendante are listed; AEI is GE formerly of Lalonde + MEI of Waechter + Francis Lalanne, a mad and out-of-date French singer).

Interesting in the other questions:
the only voters who are interested in these elections by over 50% are those from the Front de Gauche, the Greens and the UMP.
62% of MoDem voters aren't interested in these elections....
And MoDem voters are also 58% to vote based on national criteria and not European ones.

Robert Schuman and the MRP are really dead and Bayrou is definitely not their heir !

De Villiers and Nihous aren't able to make a decent score in elections in which they are traditionally quite good.
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« Reply #217 on: May 28, 2009, 06:37:25 AM »

AEI is GE formerly of Lalonde + MEI of Waechter + Francis Lalanne, a mad and out-of-date French singer).

And the scientologists/Raelians.
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« Reply #218 on: May 28, 2009, 09:32:04 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2009, 07:44:25 PM by Benisto Cerciuro »

About the official campaign clips:

PS: They still use the same "sociological" one since years and years now, good for their economy...

UMP: Unlike what they use to do, they give us here something that doesn't seem professional, bad done. Plus that's a lipdub in which all people have the words of the general secretary, Xavier Bertrand, in their mouth. Cool, that reinforce the idea we have of their democratic practices/debates...

Modem: Bayrou.

NC: Damn, that's awful, but that's suits very well with the image of Hervé Morin, it's a kind of thing which wanna be funny and modern, but which is just empty.

NPA: Well, nothing of particular, not especially good, not especially bad, just classical.

And the best one, by far is....

Front de Gauche!

Dynamic, modern, clear, well done, good music... one more argument for them...

I haven't seen other ones, or I don't remember...

Outside of this, it seems that the meeting at PS created nothing new, everyone can see it's more or less some theater, and no energy come from them, even if Martine Aubry was a bit more dynamic these last days, it seems she clearly belongs to the past, that's at least the impress I have when I hear her speaking, I feel being back in Jospin's time, funny in a way, but I'm not sure that's efficient for them...

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« Reply #219 on: May 29, 2009, 02:30:28 AM »

The fourth poll from OpinionWay (a noticeable sample of 5581):

UMP 26 (-2)
PS 20 (-1)
MoDem 13 (=)
Greens 10 (=)
FN 7 (+1)
NPA 6 (=)
MPF-CPNT 6 (+0,5)
PG-PCF 5 (=)
AEI 2,5 (+0,5)
LO 1 (-1)
DLR 0,5 (=)
others 3 (+2)

With 4 polls from OpinionWay, it makes:
UMP 28 27 28 26
PS 23 22 21 20
MoDem 12 13 13 13
Greens 10 9 10 10
NPA 7 7 6 6
FN 6 7 6 7
FG 5 5 5 5
Libertas 5 5 5,5 6


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« Reply #220 on: May 29, 2009, 06:43:05 AM »

Too bad for the DLR being the "surprising result" of the night (quoting NDA), eh?
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big bad fab
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« Reply #221 on: May 29, 2009, 08:42:31 AM »

Too bad for the DLR being the "surprising result" of the night (quoting NDA), eh?

I think I've already said he was my teacher in public law during one year at Sciences-Po.
He was quite bad in law... not very sympathetic, to say the least... never smiling.
And he didn't appear as very clever.

And now, he's a clown.
If forced to choose between him and Villiers, that would be difficult, but, sure, Villiers is a BIG clown.
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« Reply #222 on: May 29, 2009, 09:48:11 PM »

Ifop poll in IdF.

UMP 29%
PS 23.5%
Greenies 12%
MoDem 12%
FN 6%
Left 6%
NPA 5%
DLR 2%
Libertas 1.5%
LO 1%
Others 2% [CNI, scientologists, liberals, anti-zionist]

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« Reply #223 on: May 29, 2009, 10:01:08 PM »

PS: They still use the same "sociological" one since years and years now, good for their economy...

Ah, still the usual crap about l'Europe sociale and la république sociale (if only these idiots knew who else used the Social Republic... rofl). I'm surprised they haven't made total fools of themselves by being hypocrites by saying that the centre-right meanies voted the liberalization of public services (voted by the PS as well as the RPR-UDF-UMP).

Aubry looks bored. In the style "wtf am i doing here??!1?"

UMP: Unlike what they use to do, they give us here something that doesn't seem professional, bad done. Plus that's a lipdub in which all people have the words of the general secretary, Xavier Bertrand, in their mouth. Cool, that reinforce the idea we have of their democratic practices/debates...

Very 1984-like. Scary and weird (especially the female with the Bertrand voice). Though Xavier Bertrand's sweet little baby voice probably helps a bit with voters.


Ah, the Hypocrites' Movement. The man who rants about Sarkozy's egocracy is creating an egocracy within the MoDem.

NC: Damn, that's awful, but that's suits very well with the image of Hervé Morin, it's a kind of thing which wanna be funny and modern, but which is just empty.

Didn't see it. Linky?

NPA: Well, nothing of particular, not especially good, not especially bad, just classical.

Boring Trot junk with the usual stupid rhetoric ("people before profit", "let's destroy the evil baby-eating capitalists!!11", "revolución!!!")

Front de Gauche!

Dynamic, modern, clear, well done, good music... one more argument for them...


They have stupid ideas, obviously, but this one is very well done and quite modern.
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« Reply #224 on: May 30, 2009, 07:04:06 AM »

The MoDem will be able to air twenty-minute segments reserved for the lists that have the endorsement of a parliamentary group in addition to the two-minute segments reserved for all candidates. The centrist group in the Senate voted on whether to endorse the MoDem, and the final result was an 11-11 tie; the president of the group, an opponent of Bayrou, voted in his favor "in the name of pluralism."
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