Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 36,667
|
 |
« on: December 05, 2008, 10:19:41 AM » |
|
Well, I think the fact that he was black probably equally helped as hurt.
What I think is the reason why his margins weren't any higher is that he ran against a candidate who had a centrist reputation and an alibi in his long-term intraparty opponent. If there was a war with 5000+ deaths and unemployment hovering around 7% in 2004 and if Obama got elect to the senate in 1998 or 2000... I would say that it would have been-
Obama 55
Bush 44
Other 1
So yes, if McCain didn't have any non-traditional excuses, Obama would have a similiar PV margin as Ronald Reagan did in 1980. He would have also won Montana and Missouri and reached 379 EVs, but he wouldn't have won the Dakotas or Georgia.
|
