Top Republican Senate targets in 2010?

[Kevin]

What currently Democratic held seats in the Senate that are going to be targeted in 2010 by Republicans?

I'd say at the moment, California, North Dakota, Arkansas, and Nevada are the top targets, although I'm skeptical about them all.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is a touchy subject since everyone will claim this state is trending this way or that or the GOP can't win there. Well who thought Obama would win Indiana? Anything is possible.

Three Incumbents should be challenged no matter what.
Sen Chris Dodd(D-CT)-Approval in mid 40's cause of Presidential run. Since that poll was taken he has been revealed to have participated in the friends of Angelo program at Countrywide Financial and then went on a bailout binge creating the Banking, Housing, and possibly the Autobailout. I would guess his approvals are no greater then 40. Chris Shays has rulled out a run, Rell and Fedele are going to run for reelection. The best candidate left is Rob Simmons. I don't know if he would risk another run after losing in 2006 but that race was narrow and his defeat likely caused by the wave. He also comes from the right part of the state and has Rell at the top of the ballot. This could be the Dems version of Conrad Burns if we play it right and Dodd continues to be Dodd.

Sen. Harry Reid(D-NV)-I know someone will blow my head off for this one. However his approvals are the worst possible for a candidate for reelection. I haven;t seen numbers this bad sustained so long Since Rick Santorum went down in 2006. I know he has the state bought and paid and will likely have the State atty Gen, his crony, put every challenger in jail. But some day this bastard will get what he deserves. With both the Gov and Lt Gov. tainted by scandal most of it fabricated by Reid's minions the best candidates are Kenny Guinn(Too Old) and Jon Porter(just lost House race). We could turn this into the Dems version of Rick Santorum if we can find a good challenger. It possbile there might be a State Senator who doesn't see much hope with a Dem majority might run.

Sen. Ken Salazar(D-CO)-As a first termer we might be able to make this one a close race. It won't be easy but since when is politics easy? Bill Owens(popular former Gov.), John Elway(well known athlete), or Scott McInnis(Former Rep from the Western 3rd district, and could eat into some of Salazar's base there), but please ANYBODY BUT TANCREDO, could make this possible.

The rest is probably retirement watch. Waiting and seeing if people like Evan Bayh or Byrone Dorgan retire. Inouye only if Lingle runs for the open seat.

If there was such a thing as an ILL GOP I would say that seat we should challenged but with who. Mark Kirk would be strong but we would lose his seat. John Shimkus comes from the wrong part of the state. Aaron Shock is too young(literally he is only 26 I beleive) and he needs a few more terms in the House then just one. Ray Lahood might but he may be too conservative to win. Mike Diitka would be the best candidate but I doubt he would run. Jim Oberwies needs to go back to the dairy business. Peter Roskam is too conservative and needs more time in the House.


You can forget CA. AR and ND are possible if the incumbents retire but even then who the hell do we run in AR. NV should definately be targeted. If we let a Senator with a 35% approval rating go without serious challenging then the GOP has got another thing coming(like another loss maybe. three times the charm)

Well now its you guys' turn to: dissect this piece by piece and tell me why all of the seats are impossible, and the GOP should be a permenent minority party, oh and I am a fool for saying the GOP should try to take out TSAR REID and Chris "Bailout" Dodd.     

[Associate Justice PiT]

     NV, NV, & NV. They can more or less forget about targetting anywhere else unless Obama fails miserably as President.

[Kevin]

This is a touchy subject since everyone will claim this state is trending this way or that or the GOP can't win there. Well who thought Obama would win Indiana? Anything is possible.

Three Incumbents should be challenged no matter what.
Sen Chris Dodd(D-CT)-Approval in mid 40's cause of Presidential run. Since that poll was taken he has been revealed to have participated in the friends of Angelo program at Countrywide Financial and then went on a bailout binge creating the Banking, Housing, and possibly the Autobailout. I would guess his approvals are no greater then 40. Chris Shays has rulled out a run, Rell and Fedele are going to run for reelection. The best candidate left is Rob Simmons. I don't know if he would risk another run after losing in 2006 but that race was narrow and his defeat likely caused by the wave. He also comes from the right part of the state and has Rell at the top of the ballot. This could be the Dems version of Conrad Burns if we play it right and Dodd continues to be Dodd.

Sen. Harry Reid(D-NV)-I know someone will blow my head off for this one. However his approvals are the worst possible for a candidate for reelection. I haven;t seen numbers this bad sustained so long Since Rick Santorum went down in 2006. I know he has the state bought and paid and will likely have the State atty Gen, his crony, put every challenger in jail. But some day this bastard will get what he deserves. With both the Gov and Lt Gov. tainted by scandal most of it fabricated by Reid's minions the best candidates are Kenny Guinn(Too Old) and Jon Porter(just lost House race). We could turn this into the Dems version of Rick Santorum if we can find a good challenger. It possbile there might be a State Senator who doesn't see much hope with a Dem majority might run.

Sen. Ken Salazar(D-CO)-As a first termer we might be able to make this one a close race. It won't be easy but since when is politics easy? Bill Owens(popular former Gov.), John Elway(well known athlete), or Scott McInnis(Former Rep from the Western 3rd district, and could eat into some of Salazar's base there), but please ANYBODY BUT TANCREDO, could make this possible.

The rest is probably retirement watch. Waiting and seeing if people like Evan Bayh or Byrone Dorgan retire.

If there was such a thing as an ILL GOP I would say that seat we should challenged but with who. Mark Kirk would be strong but we would lose his seat. John Shimkus comes from the wrong part of the state. Aaron Shock is too young(literally he is only 26 I beleive) and he needs a few more terms in the House then just one. Ray Lahood might but he may be too conservative to win. Mike Diitka would be the best candidate but I doubt he would run. Jim Oberwies needs to go back to the dairy business. Peter Roskam is too conservative and needs more time in the House.


You can forget CA. AR and ND are possible if the incumbents retire but even then who the hell do we run in AR. NV should definately be targeted. If we let a Senator with a 35% approval rating go without serious challenging then the GOP has got another thing coming(like another loss maybe. three times the charm)

Well now its you guys' turn to: dissect this piece by piece and tell me why all of the seats are impossible, and the GOP should be a permenent minority party, oh and I am a fool for saying the GOP should try to take out TSAR REID and Chris "Bailout" Dodd.     

With Arkansas we have Mike Huckabee if he wants it and with North Dakota current Governor John Hoeven

[Daniel Z]

DE (if Castle runs), CO, CT, HI (if lingle runs), IL, NV.

[cinyc]

Depending on who Governor Paterson names as a replacement, NY (special election).  Schumer is safe.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is a touchy subject since everyone will claim this state is trending this way or that or the GOP can't win there. Well who thought Obama would win Indiana? Anything is possible.

Three Incumbents should be challenged no matter what.
Sen Chris Dodd(D-CT)-Approval in mid 40's cause of Presidential run. Since that poll was taken he has been revealed to have participated in the friends of Angelo program at Countrywide Financial and then went on a bailout binge creating the Banking, Housing, and possibly the Autobailout. I would guess his approvals are no greater then 40. Chris Shays has rulled out a run, Rell and Fedele are going to run for reelection. The best candidate left is Rob Simmons. I don't know if he would risk another run after losing in 2006 but that race was narrow and his defeat likely caused by the wave. He also comes from the right part of the state and has Rell at the top of the ballot. This could be the Dems version of Conrad Burns if we play it right and Dodd continues to be Dodd.

Sen. Harry Reid(D-NV)-I know someone will blow my head off for this one. However his approvals are the worst possible for a candidate for reelection. I haven;t seen numbers this bad sustained so long Since Rick Santorum went down in 2006. I know he has the state bought and paid and will likely have the State atty Gen, his crony, put every challenger in jail. But some day this bastard will get what he deserves. With both the Gov and Lt Gov. tainted by scandal most of it fabricated by Reid's minions the best candidates are Kenny Guinn(Too Old) and Jon Porter(just lost House race). We could turn this into the Dems version of Rick Santorum if we can find a good challenger. It possbile there might be a State Senator who doesn't see much hope with a Dem majority might run.

Sen. Ken Salazar(D-CO)-As a first termer we might be able to make this one a close race. It won't be easy but since when is politics easy? Bill Owens(popular former Gov.), John Elway(well known athlete), or Scott McInnis(Former Rep from the Western 3rd district, and could eat into some of Salazar's base there), but please ANYBODY BUT TANCREDO, could make this possible.

The rest is probably retirement watch. Waiting and seeing if people like Evan Bayh or Byrone Dorgan retire.

If there was such a thing as an ILL GOP I would say that seat we should challenged but with who. Mark Kirk would be strong but we would lose his seat. John Shimkus comes from the wrong part of the state. Aaron Shock is too young(literally he is only 26 I beleive) and he needs a few more terms in the House then just one. Ray Lahood might but he may be too conservative to win. Mike Diitka would be the best candidate but I doubt he would run. Jim Oberwies needs to go back to the dairy business. Peter Roskam is too conservative and needs more time in the House.


You can forget CA. AR and ND are possible if the incumbents retire but even then who the hell do we run in AR. NV should definately be targeted. If we let a Senator with a 35% approval rating go without serious challenging then the GOP has got another thing coming(like another loss maybe. three times the charm)

Well now its you guys' turn to: dissect this piece by piece and tell me why all of the seats are impossible, and the GOP should be a permenent minority party, oh and I am a fool for saying the GOP should try to take out TSAR REID and Chris "Bailout" Dodd.     

With Arkansas we have Mike Huckabee if he wants it and with North Dakota current Governor John Hoeven

Huck doesn't want to be a Senator. The very thought appalls him. A Hoeven-Dorgan race would be very close and stay well below fifty considereing each is popular. However I think he should not run unless Dorgan retires. I would prefer him to go after Kent Conrad in 2012 cause he like Dodd was in the friends of Angelo program and may be damaged goods.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

DE (if Castle runs), CO, CT, HI (if lingle runs), IL, NV.

Castle is old and I doubt he would run. I will however add HI to my list but under the retirement watch. I would love to see Inouye go for the same reason as I was Ted Stevens and that is he is a Pork Barreler. But I doubt Inouye could be defeated even by Lingle, he is jsut to entrenched.

[Nixon in '80]

If Obama's first two years are anything but miserable failure, no Republican on the scene has a chance at the CA seat, even if Boxer does decide to retire (she has indicated she will run).

[DownWithTheLeft]

DE (if Castle runs), CO, CT, HI (if lingle runs), IL, NV.

Castle is old and I doubt he would run. I will however add HI to my list but under the retirement watch. I would love to see Inouye go for the same reason as I was Ted Stevens and that is he is a Pork Barreler. But I doubt Inouye could be defeated even by Lingle, he is jsut to entrenched.

I really don't think being a pork barreler is the reason Ted Stevens lost

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

DE (if Castle runs), CO, CT, HI (if lingle runs), IL, NV.

Castle is old and I doubt he would run. I will however add HI to my list but under the retirement watch. I would love to see Inouye go for the same reason as I was Ted Stevens and that is he is a Pork Barreler. But I doubt Inouye could be defeated even by Lingle, he is jsut to entrenched.

I really don't think being a pork barreler is the reason Ted Stevens lost

No but its the reason I having been praying for his loss or retirement for the past three years. When you get as many earmarks as Inouye or Stevens it should definately be a red flag for corruption. I knew Ted was corrupt even before the investigations started b/c of that steady stream of dollars he kept sending to AK at the expense of other states like NJ.

[agcatter]

I agree with what was said above.

Nevada

Nevada

Nevada

Reid has problems.  As far as other GOP possibilities.  There aren't any.  Period.

[HappyWarrior]

Any chance if Mikulski retires that the MD senate seat may be targeted?

[Kevin]

DE (if Castle runs), CO, CT, HI (if lingle runs), IL, NV.

Castle is old and I doubt he would run. I will however add HI to my list but under the retirement watch. I would love to see Inouye go for the same reason as I was Ted Stevens and that is he is a Pork Barreler. But I doubt Inouye could be defeated even by Lingle, he is jsut to entrenched.

I really don't think being a pork barreler is the reason Ted Stevens lost

No but its the reason I having been praying for his loss or retirement for the past three years. When you get as many earmarks as Inouye or Stevens it should definately be a red flag for corruption. I knew Ted was corrupt even before the investigations started b/c of that steady stream of dollars he kept sending to AK at the expense of other states like NJ.

I kind of get the feeling that Inouye could be a crook also?   

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I agree with what was said above.

Nevada

Nevada

Nevada

Reid has problems.  As far as other GOP possibilities.  There aren't any.  Period.

Disagree completely. We target one seat the Dems will have the advantage of only defending one seat while we defend 5 or 6. That is what killed us in 2006 and 2008. There are other possibilities like Ct where Dodd is in more trouble then Reid. Yea its a Democratic seat but so was Montana and that did save Conrad Burns did it. We can give Salazar a run for his money as well. Remember the goal is not necesarily to win but to divide the Dems money. Even if Dodd and Salazar get reelected I would rather it cost the DEms 10 million dollars to do it then zero. The GOP has got to stop being stupid and one of the stupidest things they do is let weak Dems get a free pass while every weak Rep is challenged. State leanings are not always important either, look at Stevens, the GOP bent of Alaska did not save him.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Any chance if Mikulski retires that the MD senate seat may be targeted?

Yes but out best candidate is the frontrunner to be head of the RNC. Senator is better than being RNC chief so he miight resign and run if Mikulski retires.

DE (if Castle runs), CO, CT, HI (if lingle runs), IL, NV.

Castle is old and I doubt he would run. I will however add HI to my list but under the retirement watch. I would love to see Inouye go for the same reason as I was Ted Stevens and that is he is a Pork Barreler. But I doubt Inouye could be defeated even by Lingle, he is jsut to entrenched.

I really don't think being a pork barreler is the reason Ted Stevens lost

No but its the reason I having been praying for his loss or retirement for the past three years. When you get as many earmarks as Inouye or Stevens it should definately be a red flag for corruption. I knew Ted was corrupt even before the investigations started b/c of that steady stream of dollars he kept sending to AK at the expense of other states like NJ.

I kind of get the feeling that Inouye could be a crook also?   

You just got to follow the money.

[socaldem]

I think that the case of Dodd being vulnerable is interesting... but I think it would take Jody Rell to do the job but Chris Shays or Robert Simmons would keep it probably within 10 meaning that the Dems would have to spend money.  It would probably be a mirror of the MS race, to some extent... credible challenger but no chance because of the state.

I think the GOP would also be advised to try to put up a credible challenger to Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.  I'd love to see Rep. Ryan run and give up his seat. 

[Kevin]

I think that the case of Dodd being vulnerable is interesting... but I think it would take Jody Rell to do the job but Chris Shays or Robert Simmons would keep it probably within 10 meaning that the Dems would have to spend money.  It would probably be a mirror of the MS race, to some extent... credible challenger but no chance because of the state.

I think the GOP would also be advised to try to put up a credible challenger to Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.  I'd love to see Rep. Ryan run and give up his seat. 

I think a strong challenger to Dodd is most likely going to come from the state or local level, like a state senator, or a prominent state representative, or some other individual.   

[Mr.Phips]

I think that the case of Dodd being vulnerable is interesting... but I think it would take Jody Rell to do the job but Chris Shays or Robert Simmons would keep it probably within 10 meaning that the Dems would have to spend money.  It would probably be a mirror of the MS race, to some extent... credible challenger but no chance because of the state.

I think the GOP would also be advised to try to put up a credible challenger to Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.  I'd love to see Rep. Ryan run and give up his seat. 

Ryan is probably too conservative for a state that gave Obama 57% of the vote.  They would probably need somebody a little more low key, possibly like former Rep.  Mark Neumann.