LA-04 Runoff, Predictions and Results

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The district is probably protected by the Voting Rights Act.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think it's more likely that LA-06 will get dismantled. LA-02 snakes out to take the AA precincts and the rest gets divided up among the surrounding districts.

[cinyc]

There will be pressure to keep a black majority district in the general area, I think. Which may have interesting knock-on effects in neighbouring districts.

If the 2006 census estimates are correct, that district is going to be a real gerrymander - snaking from New Orleans to East Baton Rouge Parish.  I can't think of another way to pick up a large minority population.  Outside of the part of Jefferson Parish that's already in the district, most of the New Orleans suburbs are fairly white.

[Ronnie]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

[Ronnie]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

Why don't they have those electronic machines in every state?  We wouldn't have this problem in Minnesota if this were the case.

[Alcon]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

Why don't they have those electronic machines in every state?  We wouldn't have this problem in Minnesota if this were the case.

85% infrastructure costs, 10% federal certification issues, 5% they freak a lot of people out.

[minionofmidas]

There will be pressure to keep a black majority district in the general area, I think. Which may have interesting knock-on effects in neighbouring districts.

If the 2006 census estimates are correct, that district is going to be a real gerrymander - snaking from New Orleans to East Baton Rouge Parish.  I can't think of another way to pick up a large minority population.  Outside of the part of Jefferson Parish that's already in the district, most of the New Orleans suburbs are fairly white.

Lots of rural Blacks along the river. You could probably cut parts of New Orleans out.

[Mr.Phips]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

That late holding of Bossier precincts that suddenly gave Fleming the lead I think warrants an examination.  Is there a reason why they waited liek 40 minutes to count those precincts?  Shades of Illinois 1960.  

[Mr.Phips]

There will be pressure to keep a black majority district in the general area, I think. Which may have interesting knock-on effects in neighbouring districts.

If the 2006 census estimates are correct, that district is going to be a real gerrymander - snaking from New Orleans to East Baton Rouge Parish.  I can't think of another way to pick up a large minority population.  Outside of the part of Jefferson Parish that's already in the district, most of the New Orleans suburbs are fairly white.

That would be a racial gerrymander, which would likely be struck down by the courts.  What will likely happen is that LA-02 will have to be extended further out into Jefferson parish, making it slightly whiter and a little more Republican, but not enough to save Cao. 

[minionofmidas]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

the "looks like Dardenne knows how to do his job" comment right after that came in got me chuckling...

That late holding of Bossier precincts that suddenly gave Fleming the lead I think warrants an examination.  Is there a reason why they waited liek 40 minutes to count those precincts?  Shades of Illinois 1960. 

[Ronnie]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

That late holding of Bossier precincts that suddenly gave Fleming the lead I think warrants an examination.  Is there a reason why they waited liek 40 minutes to count those precincts?  Shades of Illinois 1960.  

Sorry to break it to you, but Bossier is overwhelmingly Republican.  Fleming did as well as I expected over there.

[Mr.Phips]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

That late holding of Bossier precincts that suddenly gave Fleming the lead I think warrants an examination.  Is there a reason why they waited liek 40 minutes to count those precincts?  Shades of Illinois 1960.  

Sorry to break it to you, but Bossier is overwhelmingly Republican.  Fleming did as well as I expected over there.

It suspiciously got about 10 points more Republican after that late vote holding. 

[cinyc]

There will be pressure to keep a black majority district in the general area, I think. Which may have interesting knock-on effects in neighbouring districts.

If the 2006 census estimates are correct, that district is going to be a real gerrymander - snaking from New Orleans to East Baton Rouge Parish.  I can't think of another way to pick up a large minority population.  Outside of the part of Jefferson Parish that's already in the district, most of the New Orleans suburbs are fairly white.

Lots of rural Blacks along the river. You could probably cut parts of New Orleans out.

Not enough though.  You'd figure a 2012 Congressional district is going to need at least 650,000 people.  A majority would be 325,000.  According to the 2006 census estimates, there are 131,000 African Americans in Orleans Parish and 114,000 in Jefferson.  According to the 2000 census in areas with no estimates, there are 19,000 African Americans in St. John the Baptist Parish, 15,000 in Ascension, 17,000 in Iberville,  12,000 in St. Charles, 10,000 in St. James, 6,000 in Plaquemines and 5,000 in St. Bernard (2000 data).  Assuming you could somehow sweep every African American in these  parished into one district, it only adds up to about 330,000 - barely a majority.    And because drawing those lines would pretty much be impossible, you'd still be short, which means the district would have to take in parts of East Baton Rouge Parish.

[Ronnie]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

That late holding of Bossier precincts that suddenly gave Fleming the lead I think warrants an examination.  Is there a reason why they waited liek 40 minutes to count those precincts?  Shades of Illinois 1960.  

Sorry to break it to you, but Bossier is overwhelmingly Republican.  Fleming did as well as I expected over there.

It suspiciously got about 10 points more Republican after that late vote holding. 

Really?  I remember Bossier being fairly stable throughout the reporting.

In any case, they were probably reporting out of the Shreveport and Bossier City part of the parish when you think his vote total jumped.  I don't know for sure.

[Franzl]

I don't see anything suspicious, lol.

[minionofmidas]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

That late holding of Bossier precincts that suddenly gave Fleming the lead I think warrants an examination.  Is there a reason why they waited liek 40 minutes to count those precincts?  Shades of Illinois 1960. 

Sorry to break it to you, but Bossier is overwhelmingly Republican.  Fleming did as well as I expected over there.

It suspiciously got about 10 points more Republican after that late vote holding. 

Really?  I remember Bossier being fairly stable throughout the reporting.

In any case, they were probably reporting out of the Shreveport and Bossier City part of the parish when you think his vote total jumped.  I don't know for sure.

Half of Bossier was the last stuff to be reported. Now they may be multiple reasons for that, most of them entirely legit. And the final dump was somewhat more Republican than the first half (again, multiple possible explanations, including the most likely one that's entirely legit) - I don't know if it was ten points, but in this close a race it was the difference between Carmouche by, like, 50 and Fleming by 350.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

Why don't they have those electronic machines in every state?  We wouldn't have this problem in Minnesota if this were the case.

Electronic voting machines are (thankfully) completely illegal in Minnesota.

[Ronnie]

Is anyone curious as to what Charlie Cook will rate this race (for 2010) when he updates his site?  I'm guessing Likely Democratic Pickup.

[Mr.Phips]

Is anyone curious as to what Charlie Cook will rate this race (for 2010) when he updates his site?  I'm guessing Likely Democratic Pickup.

I was thinking the same thing.  He usually doesnt rate an incumbent at anything worse than a tossup, but it would be a major stretch to call this one anything less than Likely Dem. 

[minionofmidas]

02 you're talking I suppose?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It suspiciously got about 10 points more Republican after that late vote holding. 

omg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! diebold!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111

[Ronnie]

02 you're talking I suppose?

Yeah

[Ronnie]

Just as I thought.  Charlie Cook rates LA-02 as likely D in 2010.


I have to complain about him rating LA-04 as tossup, though.  Boo.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just as I thought.  Charlie Cook rates LA-02 as likely D in 2010.


I have to complain about him rating LA-04 as tossup, though.  Boo.

Yeah, that's ridiculous. Carmouche was the only Dem who had a shot at the seat. Even if he runs again, it's still likely Republican.